Hawaii has just had its primary election, [So all the candidates for the Congressional election are chosen. Predictions? Will the Dems win control of either house?
[url=http://www.electoral-vote.com/]Here’s](]the last state to do so.[/url) a good source to get started.
Oh, THAT kind of handicap. I was going to get my aluminum bat and break a few kneecaps.
Never mind. 
I have a Pennsylvania senator I’d like to encourage you to visit…
The New York Times has a nice site to review all the races, though the data doesn’t seem to be updated very often.
If I believe the Times’ ratings, to win control of the Senate, the Democrats need to capture all of the solid and leaning Democratic states, win all of the tossup states (RI, NJ, MO, and OH) and one of the leaning Republican states (AZ, TN, VA). Could be a tall order but thanks to Senator Macaca it may not be impossible. Realistically, I see the Senate split 50-50 with Cheney casting the deciding vote to keep the Senate in GOP hands.
Again going from the Times’ site, to capture the House, the Democrats need to win all of the solid and leaning Democratic seats plus 11 of 15 tossup seats. I think the staleness of the data here is making it look closer than it really is, I’d say the final split in the House will be about 223-212 in favor of the Dems.
Slate has a pretty good Election Scorecard.
Looks like maybe all the Californians moving to Montana may be finally swinging that state Democratic. 
Well, it makes me a little bit sad that my email to Bricker taking his stakes on that “Democrats won’t gain a single seat in Congress” thread went unanswered.
I’m betting that Dems take the House by two seats, and Dems gain either 3 or 4 seats in the Senate. I’m leaning toward saying that we should be gaining 4 seats, but I never discount the idiocy of some liberals to support the Green party candidate in Pennsylvania in order to allow Santorum to squeak through in what could become a very, very close race. I’ll probably go apeshit if that happens.
I noticed that his desire to bet on these races evaporated quite some time ago.
Sounds about right to me. I think Senator Macacca is going to pull off a win, despite his gaffe. The press is now focused on his newly revealed Jewish ancestry, and he’s starting to look like a victim now. There was an interesting interview with him and his opponent on one of Tim Russert’s shows a week or so ago.
Come to think of it, what odds are the Vegas bookies giving? (They do take bets on elections, don’t they?)
[quote]
Three former college football teammates of Sen. George Allen say that the Virginia Republican repeatedly used an inflammatory racial epithet and demonstrated racist attitudes toward blacks during the early 1970s.
“Allen said he came to Virginia because he wanted to play football in a place where ‘blacks knew their place,’” said Dr. Ken Shelton, a white radiologist in North Carolina who played tight end for the University of Virginia football team when Allen was quarterback. “He used the N-word on a regular basis back then.”
But I suppose maybe Allen has become enlightened since then.
To be fair, we can’t have it both ways. If Robert Byrd can change, then so can George Allen.
Is all this really going to lose Allen more votes than it wins him?
The Wall Street Journal has a pretty good election tracker, under their “Politics & Policy” subpage that has been updated pretty consistently throughout the year and highlights the key battlegrounds and typically has 3 different polls to compare results.
Personally I’m predicting the GOP has around 52 Senate seats after all is said and done. I’d predict the Democrats come out with 46 seats, leaving 2 Independents (Lieberman being the new independent, who will caucus with the Dems ala James Jeffords.)
I haven’t followed the House races enough to make a prediction.
Perhaps. But the macaca remark seems to belie that notion in Allen’s case.
Betting shops in Britain sometimes offer odds on US elections, but I think it’s almost always the Presidential race. No mention of the midterms on Ladbrokes or William Hill.
As far as Allen goes, the damage has already been done. Virginians are taking Webb seriously, something that was not necessarily the case before the unfortunate remarks. The real question in my mind about this race is whether Webb is going to come out looking like a Zell Miller type of Democrat – someone that doesn’t really appeal to Democrats because of his supposed history of intemperate remarks. Of course, Miller had an advantage that Webb does not: Republicans were happy to vote for Miller. Why would Virginia Republicans feel compelled to vote for Webb? Long story short: I’m chalking this race up to Allen, but the closer race is good because it’ll suck Republican money from other races, like New Jersey.
Byrd has made racial remarks in recent years as well.
And I don’t doubt that he has racist views, which he struggles to keep hidden. But he is not currently up for election. Allen is.
Oops. Byrd is up for election, but it ain’t close. For what it’s worth, present his racist remarks here and I will publicly condemn him.
Is there a recent Quinipiac poll on the Lieberman/Lamont race? I havene’t seen one since before Labor Day, and it would be interesting to see how that is playing out now.
I predict that the Dems won’t quite win the House, and won’t win the Senate. But they’ll come so close in both as to make any vote up in the air unless it has strong bi-partisan support.