On Election Night, which are the Senate seats to watch?

Great Debates
1

Sounds sorta like a GQ question, but since it’s politics, I’m putting it here.

Of the 33 Senate seats up for grabs, which ones are considered toss-ups that are worth watching?

For example, in the thread about the Virginia Senate race, a couple of posters said that seat wasn’t originally thought to be in play, but it looks like it now is. What are the other 6 (8?) (10?) seats worth watching?

(Aside from personal interest in the question, I want to look well-informed when we watch the elections with some friends. I’m relying on you Dopers to help my punditry!)

2

Personally, I’m watching Missouri, Tennessee, Virginia and New Jersey. I’d be shocked if one of the other 29 races flipped at this point.

3

electoral-vote.com is your one-stop poll-result shop. Based on the data there, the races that are going down to the wire are NJ, VN, TN, MO, and MT. NJ has Menendez, the only Democrat incumbent who actually has a fight on his hands. VN, MO, and MT have Republican incumbents who may lose their seats (Allen, Talent, and Burns, respectively; as opposed to Chafee, Santorum, and DeWine, the Republican incumbents who are almost certainly losing their seats). Finally TN is the steel-cage match between the conservative Republican, Corker, and the conservative Democrat, Ford.

4

And by “VN”, I of course mean “VA”, Virginia, not…I repeat, not…the mythical state of Vennessee. (Stupid typos.)

5

Kid_A is right about Tennessee. It is a dead heat and some of the attack ads have been really ugly.

One ad sponsored by the RNC against Harold Ford was created by the same man who did the ad that portrayed Max Cleland of being “unpatriotic.” The reaction to the ad was so strong that the ad was pulled.

If Ford is elected, he will be the first Black man elected to the Senate from the South since Reconstruction.

6

With the current split, the Dems need 6 seats to take the Senate. Here’s the ones in-play, off the top of my head.

GOP incumbent:

Montana:
Conrad Burns ® v John Tester (D)
Tester’s been hitting Burns pretty hard with Abramoff-related issues. The Dems might pick up this one.

Rhode Island:
Lincoln Chafee ® v Sheldon Whitehouse (D)
Chafee’s just about the most liberal Republican out there. He’s been endorsed by numerous environmental orgs including Sierra. He publicly didn’t vote for GWB in 2004. But Rhode Island’s a pretty blue state, and voters are looking to knock the President any way they can.

Tennessee:
Bob Corker ® v Harold Ford Jr (D)
In a race for Bill Frist’s vacated seat, Ford is looking to be the first African American since Reconstruction to win a Senate seat from the South. The race is polling as a dead heat, but historically, African American candidates have polled about 5% less than they get on election day. (Not necessarily because of racism, either.) Notable for the most famous negative campaign ad of the cycle. So bad that Corker’s campaign asked the RNC to yank the anti-Ford spot.

Virginia:
George Allen ® v Jim Webb (D)
Quite the nasty race. Allen’s been catching heat for alleged racism, and Webb’s been catching heat for alleged misogyny. Also polling pretty close.

Missouri:
Jim Talent ® v Claire McCaskill (D)
A Stem Cell Research initiative on the ballot may bring religious conservatives to the polls and allow Talent to eke out a victory, or it may swing McCaskill’s way.

Ohio:
Mike DeWine ® v Sherrod Brown (D)
DeWine has been trying to distance himself from President Bush, but rumor has it that the national GOP has taken money from this race as they believe it might be a lost cause.

Pennsylvania:
Rick Santorum ® v Bob Casey (D)
A conservative Republican faces off against someone who will probably be the most conservative Democrat in the Senate. Casey’s strongly pro-life, which I suppose has negated much of the appeal of Santorum. Polls are showing that Casey wins this one.
Democrat incumbent:

New Jersey:
Bob Menendez (D) v Thomas Kaine Jr ®
The best chance for the GOP to gain a seat. Kaine’s hammering Menendez on ethics, but in New Jersey, undecideds have generally broken for the Dems.

Maryland:
Ben Cardin (D) v Michael Steele ®
An open race for Paul Sarbanes’s (D) seat. Michael Steele, an African-American, might get support from the state’s minority population. But the state is still quite blue.

Those nine races are the most important in the Senate, in my opinion. I’d also look at Connecticut, where Joe Lieberman (I) looks to be ahead by quite a bit against netroots-boosted Ned Lamont (D). The Republican has no chance.

My prediction is that Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Ohio, and Missouri will switch from GOP to Dem, the GOP will keep Virginia, Montana, and Tennessee. The Dems will lose no seats, and Joe Lieberman will keep his Connecticut seat as an Independent. (He promises to caucus with the Democrats.)

Which makes the Senate 51-49 for the GOP. (Counting Joe Lieberman and new Vermonter Bernie Sanders, both independents, as Democrat-supporters. Sanders, the closest thing to a socialist in Congress, is taking Jim Jeffords’s seat, most likely.)

But that’s my guess. I’d pay exceptionally close attention to Montana, Virginia, Tennessee, Missouri, and New Jersey. These are my tossups. If the Dems win four of these, they take the Senate.

7

I should add an explanation as to why the Dems need 6 seats to take the Senate. If they get 5, it’ll be a 50-50 split, with Vice President Cheney casting the tiebreaking vote. The Dems could take the Senate eventually with 5 pickups if a Democrat is elected President (and presumably another is elected Veep) in 2008.

8

I would temper your enthusiasm/despair with it’s predictions though. It had Kerry up by about a 20-30 electoral vote margin at election time in 2004.

9

I’d recommend www.pollster.com for the recent Senate polls.

Here’s my quick summary of the Senate races:

  1. Dem seats targeted by GOP:
    a) MD: Rep. Cardin (D) running ahead of Lt. Gov. Steele (R) for Sarbanes’ (D, retiring) seat.
    b) NJ: Sen. Menendez (D) running ahead of Tom Kean Jr. (R).

  2. GOP seats targeted by Dems:
    a) All but certain Dem pickups:
    i) PA: Casey (D) running way ahead of Sen. “Man-on-Dog” Santorum (R).
    ii) OH: Rep. Sherrod Brown (D) running comfortably ahead of Sen. DeWine (R).

b) Probable Dem pickups:
i) RI: Whitehouse (D) running ahead of Sen. Chafee (R).
ii) MT: Tester (D) runnnig ahead of Sen. Burns (R).

c) Leaning Dem: VA: Webb (D) now seems to have a slight lead and the mo’ over Sen. Allen (R).

d) Tossups:
i) MO: McCaskill (D) and Sen. Talent (R) running dead even.
ii) TN: Ford (D) and Corker (R) running very close. Maybe a slight R lean here.

e) Longshots: AZ: Pederson (D) running behind Sen. Kyl (R) - but last two polls that weren’t Zogby Interactive showed Pederson down by only 5-6%. Those were on 10/16 and 10/22, so there’s time for Pederson to catch up.

The Dems need to win all of the first six, and two of the last four, to win control of the Senate. If any of the first six go Republican, it’s a Big Deal. AZ is a Big Deal if the Dems win it. And VA, TN, and MO are a big deal no matter who wins them.

10

For some time, the big four to watch have been MO, NJ, VA, and TN. The Dems need 3 of 4 to control, the Repubs need 2.

NJ is looking a lot better for the Democrats. Not time to declare victory but this would be the most surprising to me if the Dems lose it.

VA is beginning to break the Democrats’ way, but anything could still happen. This is the second one that the Dems really need to win.

TN is looking less promising to me, though it depends on which poll you like. This is the least likely of the four to break for the Democrats.

Should the Dems get 2 of the above 3, then it’s winner take all in Missouri. This and TN are the ones to watch in my opinion.

Other than that, the Dems have an outside shot at AZ and the Repubs and outside shot in MT. If the Democratic wave turns into a tsunami, then even someone like Jack Carter in Nevada could pull a stunner.

I’ll throw in a House race, too. Ohio’s 2nd district. If Mean Jean Schmidt of Murtha-bashing fame goes down, then Nancy Pelosi should look for drapes with a 10 year warranty.

11

Virginia resident here. Although it feels like Webb is ever-so-slightly ahead at the moment, the fact that we have a Marriage Amendment on the ballot also needs to be considered. A lot of conservative Republicans will come out of the woodwork to vote for it, and will almost certainly vote for Allen in the process. A lot of Independents and Democrats seem to be disgusted with both of them, and may not go vote for either.

A Democrat friend of mine also pointed out that Allen may very possibly resign part way through the term to run for President, and that 2 years of Allen was better than 6 of Webb.

My guess would be that Allen will win, but just barely. I hope I’m wrong (I consider Webb the lesser of two evils), but we’ll see.

12

Pelosi can buy drapes with a long-term warranty regardless.

This is, to a fair extent, a realignment election: just like the GOP won the House in 1994 by finally sweeping moderate/conservative Dems out of the South, while their more moderate members held onto their seats in the Northeast and Midwest, this time the Dems are sweeping Republicans (including what’s left of the moderate wing) out of their seats in the Northeast and much of the Midwest, while approaching parity in the Rockies.

For a long time, the GOP has been moving further right without paying an electoral price for it in terms of losing control of more moderate districts. Now it’s happening.

The GOP’s going to be faced with an interesting choice over the next few years: either (a) make a serious move towards the center, or (b) become essentially a regional party, controlling the South and the more conservative parts of the mountain West, while ceding pretty much the rest of the nation to the Dems.

A real possibility for next week is that the Dems might lose NO seats they currently hold to the GOP in either house of Congress. None. Zip. Nada. When’s the last time that happened? Even in landslide years, the party that loses overall, picks up a seat or two somewhere. But quite possibly not this time. On defense, the Dems may well pitch a shutout. That would be pretty impressive.

13

That’s only one state like Ohio. Still a very close call.

14

What part of VA are you in, Monica? And what sort of play did the story of Allen’s guys beating up Mike Stark yesterday get in your local news?

Because I’m thinking that if most Virginians are at least aware of the incident, then that’ll be the last straw.

15

Missouri resident here. We have a few state-wide issues that could do interesting things for the election.

  1. Stem cell research
  2. Minimum wage
  3. Cigarette Tax

There’s also a state auditor election in which there’s a strong democratic candidate. I was watching the local (St. Louis) news the other night and they were interviewing a moderate republican couple who is voting for McCaskill because they don’t recognize the Rep. Party anymore - it’s shifted to far right for their taste. Also I put in for a McCaskill yard sign a week ago and they’ve informed me that they’re all out. So I guess that’s a good sign.

16

That made the local paper here in St. Louis. I should hope it made it about everywhere in Virginia.

17

Probaby not a valid comparison. In '94 the GOP won a large majority that, even when it was whittled down in '96 and '98, still left them in control. There were quite a few Republicans elected that year that only lasted a term or two.

If Democrats gain the majority this year, it will probably be by a pretty thin margin. They’ll have five or six seats putting them in the majority. In '08, a lot of their freshmen will likely lose, just as many GOP freshmen did in '96. That could easily swing the House back to the GOP.

18

But unlike '96, '08 depends on the Presidential race too. There is almost always a coattail effect if there is a strong winner. If the swing away from the right continues and a strong Democrat is elected, the Dems could pad their majority in both houses.

19

True, but the GOP’s big gains in 1994 were in the South. They also picked up some seats in usually Dem areas, which they then lost back in the next few cycles, but it was the successful geographical alignment that enabled them to hold a House majority even after '98.

Depends on whether they gain those seats in places that a Dem can’t be expected to win in anything but a fluke year. Certainly there will be a few places like that - I’m thinking Lampson winning DeLay’s old seat, for instance - but the Dems are going to win >15 seats in areas that are either Dem in Presidential elections, or are only slightly Republican.

New proverb - “no sign is a good sign.” :wink:

The WaPo, which is Northern Virginia’s local paper in addition to being a de facto national newspaper, buried it on page A8. One hopes the downstate papers front-paged it, but you never know.

20

I know what I’m watching: the ones I’ve been watching all along. Some of the ones below are no longer liable to surprise anyone, but I’ll watch them anyway, just to see how they play out. Below are my predictions as of right now. leading to a 50/50 Senate. So…

Arizona—This race has been showing some surprising movement lately. I still call it for Republican Jon Kyl, but if there’s any Senate race this year that could surprise everyone, this is it. Republican retention.

Connecticut—Joe Lieberman will win a fourth term over Democrat Ned Lamont. I’m not happy about it, but this will probably happen. Lieberman will continue to caucus with the Democrats, however, so there’s a silver lining. I can’t imagine the Democratic leadership taking away his seniority, like some think they might. Democratic retention (sort of.)

Maryland—Steele has proven to be a better campaigner than previously thought. The guy is slick, and knows how to give real non-answers to real significant questions, and is good at dodging when he needs to. Regardless, Ben Cardin will become Maryland’s next senator. Democratic retention. (And in case he’s managed to fool you, too: Michael Steele is not a Democrat, though he might like you to think so. Or he might not. You can’t even pin this guy down on party affiliation!)

Michigan—There never was a real contest here, although the Republicans once had a shot. Stabenow is reëlected easily. Democratic retention.

Minnesota—Mark Kennedy was supposed to be the Republicans’ wunderkind this year, but he’s turned out to be a real dud. Amy Klobuchar will clobber him in the polls, as she’s done in the debates, and will become an excellent senator for Minnesota. Democratic retention.

Missouri—Predicting statewide Missouri races is like predicting a coin flip: there’s really no way to know; it’s always close, and this year is no exception. However, this year’s Michael J. Fox ads will help Democrat Claire McCaskill push this one over the edge. The depressed Republican voters will help, too. It’ll be close, no matter what, but I’ll say this is a Democratic pickup.

Montana—Conventional wisdom says that Jon Tester has a solid lead, but I suspect that’s not true. He could still lose this one, even though he’s been doing everything right, and Conrad Burns seems to be asleep on his feet. Regardless, I think Tester will do it, but it’ll be uncomfortably close. Democratic pickup.

Nevada—Jack Carter has done better than expected, but I don’t see him overcoming his deficit in the polls. He’s one to watch for the future, though. For this year’s Senate races, I’d say Nevada’s is the ninth most likely of the fifteen Republican-held seats to flip Democratic, so odds aren’t good. The Republicans would have to have a hell of a horrible night to lose in Nevada, but it’s on the outskirts of possibility. The other six Republican-held seats are beyond possible to flip, no matter how badly things go for the Republicans. Better luck next time, Jack. Republican retention.

New Jersey—This is perhaps the most troubling Senate seat for the Democrats this year, and the most likely one for them to lose. Menendez is a terrible candidate, but still better than giving this seat to someone who’ll take marching orders from the Republican leadership. As someone who lived in New Jersey for seven years, that’s how I see it, and I think that’s how the New Jersey voters will see it in the end, too. Democratic retention.

Ohio—Senator DeWine has come undone. Sherrod Brown’s hard slog has paid off. Democratic pickup.

Pennsylvania—Rick Santorum is out, Bob Casey is in. Finally. Democratic pickup.

Rhode Island—Rhode Islanders understand that even a moderate Republican still means someone who’ll vote for a Republican majority leader, and they don’t like this. They’re ready to toss Lincoln Chafee, the most palatable Republican in the Senate, out. Welcome, Senator Whitehouse. Democratic pickup.

Tennessee—This is another one that can go either way. Regardless, I think Republican Bob Corker is going to pull it off in the end. I’m not wild about Harold Ford, but I’d rather see him in the Senate than Corker. Depressing, but Corker’s last-minute race-baiting is paying off. Republican retention.

Vermont—I’ll mention it only because it’s an open seat this year. Independent Bernie Sanders is going to succeed independent Jim Jeffords. The Democratic Party hasn’t put up a candidate, since both caucus with the Democrats, so this is effectively a Democratic retention.

Virginia—To tell the truth, I have no idea how this one’s going to play out. Nothing would surprise me. Webb’s been showing real fight this past week, but Allen’s been coming to life, too. If George Allen manages to keep his mouth shut, he’ll probably win—and he seems to have learned this lesson. Allen will win in a squeaker, but his presidential ambitions will be dashed. Republican retention.

Washington—Maria Cantwell’s seat was widely viewed as a good chance for a Republican pickup, but Mike McGavick has underperformed as a candidate. Democratic retention.