Yes. The investigation is beginning to zero in on the biggest target and I’m still hopeful that the resignation/impeachment will happen in 2017. Still to be determined whether a self-pardon will stand up in court.
Pence is lawyered up too. There’s no basis to be certain Mueller doesn’t have him nailed for Russia as well.
Yeah, that’s a possibility. President Ryan? Ugh. In some ways it would be better to have it drag out past the midterm so we might get President Pelosi.
I can see the Hill being such a historically-unique circus (including freak show) in 2018 that there’s no way to predict anything as a result. The timing of the impeachment hearings for both of them (before or after the election) would be critical, since the new President would be chosen by the House majority caucus, and not necessarily from its own roster. Hillary might make it yet.
Try not to get too depressed if reality smacks down your hopes and dreams again, k?
*Reality *and Trump supporters don’t go together very well historically, do they?
And put away any sharp objects in your house when Donald resigns in disgrace.
A few early points about 2018:
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As bad as the Republicans are doing in special elections since Trump was elected, don’t rule out ANYTHING. Democrats could even win the Senate.
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If things return to “normal” for a midterm, Trump is around 45% approval, which isn’t that unthinkable, it would only be a six point gain, then Republicans would probably pick up 1-3 seats.
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If the Clinton had won in 2016, Republicans probably would be looking at 60 seats, but obviously that didn’t happen.
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EVen if Republicans did get 60 seats, they aren’t on board with the President’s agenda and can’t agree among themselves, so nothing will continue to happen. Nothing would continue to happen if they got 100 seats.
IF he were to resign, I’d be fine with a President Pence or President Ryan. I’m not the one making silly claims of certainty. I’ll be fine. 
There’s a PredictIt market for this.
How many Senate seats will the GOP hold after 2018 midterms?
Current prices…
60+ $0.09
59 $0.06
58 $0.06
57 $0.05
56 $0.05
55 $0.08
54 $0.09
53 $0.11
52 $0.13
51 $0.12
50 $0.14
49- $0.19
Those add up to $1.17 so I will normalize to get the implied probabilities…
60+ 7.7%
59 5.1%
58 5.1%
57 4.3%
56 4.3%
55 6.8%
54 7.7%
53 9.4%
52 11.1%
51 10.3%
50 12.0%
49- 16.2%
From there we can calculate that the expected number of GOP seats is 53.29.
For what it’s worth, I think that market is skewed a bit against the GOP and that a 1 in 6ish chance of a Dem senate takeover does not reflect reality. However, that skew is probably on the order of 1 or 2 seats and not the 7 or 8 required to get to 60.
Apologies for not putting those numbers into a nicely formatted table, but the board reskin broke ‘code’ tag functionality. Please forward any complaints to board admin.
Trump supporters overwhelmingly thought he would win last November. Clinton supporters did not. Which side had the perspective more grounded in reality?
Now, Trump haters think he will be impeached. One of them is even “positive” it’s going to happen. Do you consider that a reality-based view?
I’d like to make a request that the impeachment discussion be taken to another, possibly it’s own, thread.
Just a request. I have no authority and this isn’t even my thread.
He doesn’t recognize the concept of disgrace, and won’t resign. Resigning is what *losers *do when they fail.
The point regarding Congressional control is how closely and for how long they’re willing to tie themselves to him.
It’s a perfectly reasonable one though. I won’t engage with BobLibDem or ElvisL1ves anymore on that subject here in this thread, since I’m probably the reason it has continued so far.
Thanks for your PredictIt analysis.
I’d say it’s skewed towards both extremes. I agree that the likelihood of the GOP holding 49 or fewer seats in January 2019 is minuscule - maybe two of the seats up for grabs in 2018 that are held by the GOP are in states where the Dems have any realistic chance.
But on the flip side, the likelihood of substantial numbers of pickups by the GOP is also small, and clearly there are a lot of overly optimistic bettors putting their money on GOP 60+ or even in the high 50s, and that skews the expected value considerably.
Nobody’s making you use the new skin. Dropdown menu, lower left. Choose Straight Dope v.3.7.3.
tags work same as they always did if you use the old skin.Your certainty really is absurd. Any certainty in this environment is absurd. The best I’ll say is that I still trust Nate Silver as the best (but far from perfect) predictor in politics, and only on the things (i.e. election results based on polling) that he has a good track record for.
It’s not about what I see. It’s about the audience and the audience includes people who are using the new skin as well as lurkers and people who read without signing in who must use the new skin.
I haven’t checked lately. Does 538 have some early predictions for the 2018 Senate races?
Not that I know of – IIRC, they don’t start this early. Maybe 3-6 months before election day, if I remember right from the last few cycles.
Don’t see a lot of hope, what with Kurt Knoblick and Hans von Spazovsky on the case, those three to five million illegal votes won’t be available! Maybe BLM and Antifas can raise their urban terror game…