No. Trump is going to be a major drag on the GOP in 2018.
Had Hillary Clinton won, maybe the GOP would’ve gotten to 60 senate votes in ideal circumstances. But realistically, it would’ve been 55-58 or something.
With Trump, I have no idea. I don’t know if the GOP will gain, lose or stay even. However I think it is a given they will lose seats in the house, and probably lose the house.
Just curious, what would Trump’s job approval rating average have to be next November for you to think he’s not being a major drag on the GOP? 45%? 48%? 50%?
I’ll take a bet against Republicans losing the house.
What odds do you offer?
He has been pretty stable in the 35-40 range for a while now. Most presidents have that as their career low, and for Trump that is his normal.
Plus congress tends to lose support from the party that controls the white house. Plus considering that the GOP has one party rule, that also means there is less motive to maintain one party rule right now.
There probably isn’t a realistic approval rating for him not to be a drag because the public are seeing the consequences of one party rule and the public vote against the party in power in midterms generally. He’d probably have to have a 70% approval rating to be a positive influence in the midterms, and that isn’t possible.
Seeing how democrats were competitive in districts that are R+8 and R+9, at least in special elections, what odds are you offering?
If democrats win the majority of races that are <R+2 races, that alone should give them the house.
Any President whose approval ratings are less than 50% would be expected to be a drag on their down-ballot party-mates. Major drag? Well, I’m not sure precisely how you define “major”.
1:1 Take it or leave it. Try to refrain from the long discussion of how these odds reflect on my convictions.
Lol. I’ll make it short, then. Weak.
How much of a drag can an unpopular president be if there is no presidential race on the ballot? Same really for coat tails. Off year elections are just a whole different animal.
The map is difficult for the Democrats. But I really doubt at this point that Republicans could pick up enough Senate seats to reach a 60 vote super majority.
For what it’s worth, Dem house control is pretty close to an even money bet on PredictIt right now. Link.
Now back to 60 senate seats.
Suppose Trump turns things around or at least turns things around a bit. No major disasters. A handful of ‘victories’. There’s time for this happen and maybe General Kelly or moon beams or something can pull it off. In such a climate is 60 possible?
Lets first assume every R incumbent keeps his or her job or whoever wins the AZ R primary wins the race. Now lets take a look at where Dems are playing defense presented here* ranked by Cook partisan voter index.
State PVI Incumbent
West Virginia R+19 Joe Manchin (D)
North Dakota R+17 Heidi Heitkamp (D)
Montana R+11 Jon Tester (D)
Indiana R+9 Joe Donnelly (D)
Missouri R+9 Claire McCaskill (D)
Ohio R+3 Sherrod Brown (D)
Florida R+2 Bill Nelson (D)
Pennsylvania EVEN Bob Casey Jr. (D)
Wisconsin EVEN Tammy Baldwin (D)
Michigan D+1 Debbie Stabenow (D)
Minnesota D+1 Amy Klobuchar (D)
Virginia D+1 Tim Kaine (D)
Maine D+3 Angus King (I)
New Mexico D+3 Martin Heinrich (D)
Connecticut D+6 Chris Murphy (D)
Delaware D+6 Tom Carper (D)
New Jersey D+7 Bob Menendez (D)
Washington D+7 Maria Cantwell (D)
Rhode Island D+10 Sheldon Whitehouse (D)
California D+12 Dianne Feinstein (D)
Maryland D+12 Ben Cardin (D)
Massachusetts D+12 Elizabeth Warren (D)
New York D+12 Kirsten Gillibrand (D)
Vermont D+15 Bernie Sanders (I)
Hawaii D+18 Mazie Hirono (D)
There’s seven seats in straight up R leaning states: Joe Manchin, Heidi Heitkamp, Jon Tester, Joe Donnelly, Claire McCaskill, Sherrod Brown , Bill Nelson
Then the Republicans only need to pick one more seat in an even or barely D leaning state. There are five such seats: Bob Casey Jr., Tammy Baldwin, Debbie Stabenow, Amy Klobuchar, Tim Kaine
Three of those five are in states that Trump won.
If the election was today, there’s no way this could happen, but the election isn’t today.
You ask every candidate of the President’s party what they think of how he’s doing. When the President’s approval rating is underwater, there’s no right answer to that question: Disagreement with the President sinks them with their base, and agreement sinks them with the median voter.
Also, a party’s base shrinks when its president is unpopular. When the head Republican is unpopular, a lot of people decide that they don’t really feel like Republicans (and vice-versa).
(This was the fundamental error behind that “unskewed polls” site in 2012. It treated party ID as an immutable characteristic, when actually a lot of voters are only situationally partisan.)
Well, there’s base and then, there’s base. GeeDubya’s base believed that Iraq had WMDs, Trumps base believes the five million illegal voters swarmed to the polls. There’s wrong, and then there’s…well, whatever the Hell that is. All their base are belong to them.
Off year elections are entirely about enthusiasm, an unpopular president is a drag because people are disappointed and less likely to vote. Whether he is on the ballot or not is inconsequential, it’s the feeling he engenders on likely voters that matters.
The two big unknowns for me are 1) whether Mueller’s investigation will land any big fish and have a significant impact on the public perception of the Trump administration, and 2) whether the Democrats can remove their heads from their own asses and get a decent ground game together. Frankly I have more confidence that 1) will happen than I do that 2) will happen. And while I’m not holding my breath for a Trump impeachment, even just getting the White House tangled up in reacting to, say, Manafort and Flynn trials and the release of “unpleasant” information from them will not make the Republicans look good (and could depress GOP voter turnout).
If 2) happens, assuming I don’t die of shock I believe the Dems could do very well indeed. But I see no sign of even the early stages of a ground game coming together. Mostly they’re all busy sniping about Hillary’s stupid book.
I’m not so sure those will turn out to be significant variables. Here’s my (slightly intentionally contrarian) takes:
(1) There will be no Trump-related Manafort or Flynn trials. They will get indicted and they will get pardoned, and Trump will bear about as much political cost for it as he did for Arpaio (i.e., virtually none). Mueller will release a report finding that Trump committed obstruction of justice. The House will not even begin the impeachment process, certainly not before 2018. And, the fact that a flipped House will mean the chances of impeachment skyrocket will actually function to turn out GOP votes. In the end, whatever cost to Trump from Mueller will have been basically baked in as of today (i.e., most reasonable people think he is a lying incompetent with no respect for democratic norms), and the benefits to him will rise the closer he gets to impeachment.
(2) The Dem ground game will be better than 2014, which was better than 2010, which was better than 2006. But there will be higher turnout on all sides just like we saw in the specials, so the ground game will matter less than a typical mid-term. The Dem message will be healthcare, wages, and Trump dangerousness. It will be a good message and so to the extent messaging matters that box will be checked.
The Democratic ground game was actually a lot better in 2006 than it was in 2010 and 2014. I don’t see it being any better next year than it was last year or three years ago.
Regarding the list of Cook partisan voter index, that supports my view that Virginia is becoming more blue while the upper Midwest is becoming more red. Unfortunately, due to the above noted lack of ground game, I don’t know what the Dems can do to turn it around. I know they need better candidates (i.e. don’t bust out a has been like Russ Feingold in Wisconsin) but I don’t know where they will come from.
It is far more likely that Trump has <50 GOP Senators after the upcoming midterms, than that he has >60 GOP Senators.
Given the map, neither seems terribly likely. If I had to bet, I’d say a 53-47 R majority remains. But I’d love to be wrong and have McConnell vacate the Majority Leader’s office.