You all know I love predictions and my accuracy is always worth remarking on, which I guess makes it remarkable. So I’ll show you mine if you show me yours. For bonus points, predict an upset somewhere where a candidate has a lead outside the margin of error.
Popular vote, House: Republicans 51%, Democrats 47%.
Upsets: Brown over Shaheen in NH Senate race, Tillis over Hagan in NC Senate race.
Individual predictions in toss up races: Crist over Scott in FL governor’s race. Walker over Burke in WI governor’s race. Gardner over Udall in CO Senate race. Baker over Coakley in MA governor’s race. Rauner over Quinn in Illinois governors race.
Dems lose 3-4 seats in the senate, gain a few in the house.
Mostly wishful thinking on my part but jobs and the economy seem to be doing better than they have for quite some time. The ACA is not going to hurt the Dems as much as the Pubs hope. Gas prices are dropping like a rock.
I don’t think people are upset about the direction the country is going in. The party in power benefits.
I predict the OP, stunned and bewildered, will disappear from the boards for an extended period after Election Day, and will return months later denying anything even happened then. That’s the 2012 precedent, anyway.
Unless you count the Electoral College “election” of the President and Vice-President, the USA never has “an” election. At least, not until (and unless) states with a total of 270 or more electoral votes agree to use the “whoever wins the nationwide popular vote gets all of this state’s electoral votes” method. (Right now, it stands at 165 electoral votes, and this includes quite a few of the “big” states.)
About even, depending on how your define “totally”.
Here’s mine: the bases of both parties will come around in early November and get out to vote against the other guys. Been doing that myself for about forty years now. It will be very close in many elections, and the election lawyers will feast, and the recount battles will be massive and ruthless, Franken vs Whats-his-face on a national scale.
And we very well may not know what really happened before Christmas.
I predict that the House will remain Republican. I predict, in fact, that the House will remain Republican until 2022. (That won’t change until after the next census, when some of the gerrymandering in states such as Ohio gets fixed. (12 Republicans, 4 Democrats, in a 50-50 state.) The state legislature elections in 2018 and 2020 will be critical to this. I’m telling you now, fellow Dems, get started.)
I predict that the Senate will be 50-50, and Vice-President Biden will be the deciding vote. (Which will at least keep him off the streets and not scaring the horses. Or Turks, as the case may be.)
I couldn’t care less about the governors except in this state, and here the Republican will win re-election.
My predictions are hardly unlikely for my former state of South Carolina.
from my SC absentee ballot
Governor - Nikki Haley ®
any other statewide office - whoever is running as a Republican
U.S. Senate - Lindsey Graham ®
U.S. Senate (to complete partial term) - Tim Scott ®
U.S. House of Rep. SC 3rd district - Jeff Duncan ®
I’d be shocked if any of those turn out otherwise.
Nationwide there at least will be some competitive races. Taking a stab at it…
US Senate R+6
US House R+12
I don’t really know much about other governor’s race. Call it a draw.
Republicans hold the House, Obama remains in the White House (this one’s a LOCK!) and the Senate, well, I don’t know who will win but if it’s the Dems they’ll hold on by one vote and if it’s the Republican a one vote margin is likely, too. Could go to two votes, I dunno. I don’t have any special sauce, I’m just going on the basis that the two most accurate soothsayers from the last election (Silver and Wang) are both saying it’s gonna be real fucking close.
I’m also down with elucidator’s call on how the elections will proceed, a lot of close, tight races that will take a lot of recounts, a lot of bitter accusations of fraud and electoral shenanigans, some of which are bound to be true.
Bold. I would have agreed a few months ago but damn doesn’t McConnell know how to survive. And Grimes has tried that old failed Democratic strategy of running away from the party to the extent where she doesn’t actually convince anyone but demoralizes Democrats.
The lady couldn’t even bring herself to say she voted for Barack Obama in 2012.
McConnell should have lost, and would have lost, but the anti-Obama environment Grimes is running in handicaps her too much. She’s not a bad candidate, but dealing with the reality of the campaign she has to run has given her major problems.
According to the Courier-Journal, she’s actually pulled ahead in some of the polling. I live in the Louisville, KY area, and I can state that there is a LOT of anti-Mitch sentiment. I’ll agree that Grimes isn’t doing herself any favors with the way she’s campaigning, but it may be enough. McConnell’s actually had people getting tired of him since the last election, and I think it’ll all come to a head this time.
What we should get started on is state-constitutional amendments (by ballot initiative, where allowed) to take the redistricting process away from the state legislatures and give it to some sort of nonpartisan commission.