What the thread title said: before the polls close tonight (I think Kentucky leads the way at 6pm tonight), make your call on how the Senate turns out.
You can get specific about races, or just give a net total, as you see fit. If you want to toss in other predictions on the House, governorships, etc., go right ahead. But don’t feel you have to.
FWIW, 538 (Nate Silver) gives the GOP a 73% chance of taking over, and Sam Wang gives the GOP a 63% chance.
So here’s my call: Dems hold on to 51 seats.
From a start of 55 seats, Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia are already gone. I expect Arkansas and Louisiana are gone too, though I expect Louisiana will go to a runoff. That gets us down to 50.
OTOH, I figure the Dems will pick up seats in Georgia (though that will likely go to a runoff, but the Dems will win it there, because the more people see of Perdue, the worse he looks) and Kansas (once Orman decides he’s jumping Dem). But NOT Kentucky - sorry, Alison. Back up to 52.
And the Dems will split Colorado and Iowa (down to 51) with the GOP while winning all the other contested seats - North Carolina, New Hampshire, etc. (holding at 51).
Pubs lose Kansas to the Independent, pick up Montana, SD, Iowa, Alaska, Arkansas. Georgia and Louisiana go to runoffs, with Pubs winning both. Republicans end up with 53 seats, including Orman, who holds his nose and caucuses with them.
52 Republicans. I think there’ll be at least one Democratic ‘upset’ in Alaska or Colorado or the like which will give fuel for a thousand “How did the polling go wrong?” stories.
And, um, Durbin wins in Illinois I guess – since that’s the election I’ll actually be voting in. Brave prediction there, I know.
Georgia is on my mind. Some 40,000 voter registrations seem to have just sort of wandered away. Heavens, wherever did they go? No one seems to be quite sure. The punch line is, and this is just according to the sources I have read, because TG, IANAL…there is nothing can be done. If the Pubbie candidate wins by a sliver, and those votes never get realized, and those votes are very likely to heavily favor the Dem…tough shit, election’s over, neener neener, the People Have Spoken…
Ain’t that some shit? Probably all legal and Constitutional, too!
Alaska: Begich will defeat Sullivan. Georgia: Perdue will defeat Nunn. North Carolina: Hagan will defeat Tillis. Iowa: Ernst will defeat Braley. Arkansas: Cotton will defeat Pryor. Louisiana: Cassidy will defeat Landrieu. Kentucky: McConnell will defeat Grimes. Montana: Daines will defeat Curtis.
If an individual declares that such individual is a registered voter in the jurisdiction in which the individual desires to vote and that the individual is eligible to vote in an election for Federal office, but the name of the individual does not appear on the official list of eligible voters for the polling place or an election official asserts that the individual is not eligible to vote, such individual shall be permitted to cast a provisional ballot.
That’s a pretty good prediction. As of this time tomorrow, the counting in Alaska will be far from done, chances are that tonight’s results will confirm expectations that Georgia and Louisiana will go to runoffs, and if Orman wins in Kansas, he won’t have told us who he’ll be caucusing with by then.
Of course, the bills have to reach the President’s desk first - something that requires enough Democrats who want to avoid a filibuster.
I have a feeling that, at first, there will be quite a few filibusters, but eventually they will die off as the Senators will shift blame for any calls of “do-nothing Congress” from themselves to Obama, who will take the hit for the party as it won’t affect his post-Presidential career much, if at all. The only risk is if the Republicans try to link the vetoes to the 2016 candidate somehow.
May we take it, then, that in your opinion the elections in Georgia meet all of our ideals and expectations for a free and fair election? Or that they meet the somewhat lower standards of “legal and Constitutional”?
I’m predicting a close race. I predict that Republican victory -should it occur- will not be called by midday Wednesday. That defines a close race. I guess I’d give 70% odds for that scenario. This call is consistent with my take in the last prediction thread.
Obviously, close races are not mandates in a context of voter suppression. Nor are almost close races.
[QUOTE=Charlie Cook]
The odds of Republicans winning a Senate majority are obviously getting very high. Indeed, it would be a real shocker if Democrats held the GOP to a net gain of five seats or less, preventing a takeover of the majority.
[/QUOTE]
Eh, I’m not so sure. 25% odds are 25% odds. It would be a shocker if things resolved that way as of tomorrow.
Anything less than 10 seats will be a humiliation for the Republicans. That’s well under less than 1/3 of seats changing hands.
Senate:
1)West Virginia, Arkansas, Louisiana, Iowa, Colorado, Montana flip D to R
2) No states flip R to D
3) Greg Orman wins in Kansas, Larry Pressler wins in South Dakota
Result: 50 Republicans, 48 Democrats, and 2 Independents* who’ll decide which party controls the Senate
[/QUOTE]
The above is still in the “Won’t rule it completely out” category.
However, I think the following adjustments are more likely:
bump the House to a Republican gain of 8
add Alaska to states flipping D to R
conclude the Republican candidate wins in SD
That makes 52 R, 47 D, 1 I. Since Orman said he’ll caucus with the majority, it’ll effectively be 53R-47D.
Other than presidential elections, you can never predict what Alaska will do. Begich is hugely popular with the Alaska Native community, as he’s done a lot to improve their living conditions. His election team has been seriously boots-on-the-ground throughout the campaign and claim to have knocked on every door in the bush communities, a la the Obama campaign model. He’s also a born-and-raised Alaskan, which carries some weight, especially since he’s running against a guy (Sullivan) who’s been paying property taxes on his home on the East Coast. The locals are referring to Sullivan as “Ohio Dan”; Alaskans don’t like carpetbaggers or outsiders, regardless of political stripe. Begich has also voted on things that Alaskans like, such as voting against gun control. It would not surprise me in the least to see him eke out a victory, despite the pollsters’ odds.
