Post your eday 2010 predictions here! Now! Hop to it!

Nationally:

Electoral-vote.com predicts:

Senate:
Dem 51
GOP 48
Ind 1

House:
Dem 202
GOP 216
Ties 17

I’m going predict the Dems do slightly better than expected, maybe pick up a majority of those ties, because I’ve seen cogent arguments here that the polls as currently designed don’t count a lot of younger persons, with cell phones but no land lines.

Florida:

Senate seat: Rubio by a plurality.

Governor: Sink in a squeaker. Litigation possible.

Attorney General: Based on this, Bondi.

Amendment 4 (requiring voter approval of changes to local land-use plans) Based on the link above, defeated.

Amendments 5 and 6 (anti-gerrymandering measures): Based on same, passes.

Tampa-Hillsborough transportation-improvements tax: Based on this, passes.

Didn’t we hear this same argument in 2004, with Kerry going to be swept to victory on the backs of the unpolled, young hipster cell phone users?

Anyway:

House: 196 Democrat, 239 GOP

Senate: 50 Democrat senators plus one Democrat VP, 50 GOP senators

Governors: 18 Democrats, 32 Republicans

I predict that Electoral-vote.com is, as usual, too optimistic when it comes to how democrats will do. For fun I’ll predict that the GOP takes the Senate by less than 3 seats, and the House by somewhere around 20.

I think the dems will hold both houses. I too find the polling suspect not just because of cell phones, but the questions themselves. I’ve read too many articles that reveal a disconnect between the generic ballot and actual candidates. The GOP seems to do well on the Generic Ballot, but when cadidates are compared head to head, the much ballyhooed GOP tsunami vanishes. To this I will add the caveat that this opinion is worth every penny you paid for it.

He’s getting really sloppy in the past year or so. Still entertaining, but sloppy. There are two independents in the Senate, and neither of them is up for election this year. Plus he’s constantly putting the CO-04 race (which Markey will probably lose–sigh) (There! There’s a prediction.) as CA-04.

That said, I don’t think he’s too far off. Though I won’t be surprised if Colorado goes for Bennet, which’ll add a Senate seat for the Dems. I will be surprised if Reid wins. Illinois is still a tossup.

The House will go Republican, and whatever remnant of Blue Dogs are left will change parties.

Missouri:

Everybody or every thing that I voted for will lose, and everybody or everything that I voted against will win. Except maybe Charlie Dooley for St. Louis County executive and the puppy mill bill.

Blunt wins the Senate seat handily, and the state legislature remains resoundingly Republican.

I’d love to see a cite that suggests that a significant number of the young unpolled cellphone-only hipsters actually vote in mid-term elections. A whole bunch of articles from last month suggest that they don’t/won’t.

House: 194 Democrat, 241 GOP

Senate: 49 Democrat, 49 GOP, 2 Ind

Governors: 17 Democrats, 33 Republicans

Yes, we did. This year we’re hearing a lot about how to predict the election by early voting turnout. Both have yet to be borne out by actual results.

West Virginia?

House: 189 Democrats, 246 Republicans.
Senate: 49 Democrats, 49 Republicans, 2 Independents.
Governors: 17 Democrats, 33 Republicans.

I’ll withhold editorial comment.

house: dems 213 reps 222
senate: dems 52 reps 48
governors dems 20 reps 30

Any state-level predictions?

You mean as in State races or issues?

Kansas

  • Stephen Six, a Democrat, will be one of the few Democrats who maintains office as the State AG.
  • Brownback will be governor by a 63-37 margin.
  • The Constitutional Amendment in Kansas, detailing a specific individual right to keep and bear arms for personal self-defense, will pass by about a 75-25 margin.

Missouri

  • The earnings tax vote (allowing cities under earnings taxes now to vote to continue or reject them) will pass by a 55-45 margin.
  • The anti-puppy mill referendum will pass by a 72-28 margin.

Forcing those two cities to vote on it every five years, forever, and once they are ever voted against, forever barring a vote that would reinstitute the earnings tax, and forever barring all but those two cities from ever voting to have one.

I give it about 64.6 percent for.

At least one assassination. Not calling who.

What does Nate Silver at 538 say? You can pretty much bank on his predictions.

He calls the Senate 52-48. So that’s what it will probably be.

He calls the House 233-202, so it’ll be about that.

That’s the one. Sounds great to me; we in Kansas who dare to work in KCMO have to pay it and we see no real benefit from it. If KCMO and St. Louis can do what 99% of the rest of the cities in the country do, and raise revenue via sales taxes and mill levies.

Here are my senate predictions on the ones that are in any way in question.

Ayotte, Blumenthal, Toomey, Raese, Rubio, Vitter, Coons, Paul, Portman, Coats, Kirk, Johnson, Blunt, Buck, Angle, Boxer, Murray, Miller

I’m pretty darn confident in this list. If I’m wrong on any I imagine they would be in WV where Manchin is still in the game, WA where Rossi actually ahead in some polls, or AK where there are a myriad of unpredictable factors that could conceivably result in any of the three candidates winning.

I’ll place the house at 235-200, although I’m considerably less confident on this. It would take more than 10 seats difference on either side of that figure to really surprise me.

California prop 19 will lose. I’d bet the farm on that.

Sales taxes still hit those who just shop there. Why do you think that’s an advantage?

Ayotte has a 17% lead, so I’d be damn surprised if you’re wrong about that one.

Because working adults can choose where we shop much easier than we can choose where we work. And there’s really nothing unique in KCMO that requires shopping there in the first place.