The Florida Senate election

Politics & Elections
1

Earlier GD thread.

The 2010 Florida Senate election is shaping up to be a very interesting race, perhaps the most interesting in the U.S. this year, because it is going to be a hotly contested three-way one. Much out-of-state money and attention will be coming here.

The Republican nominee almost certainly will be Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio. IMO, he’s much too conservative to swing a majority in a “purple” state that went for Obama in 2008. But he doesn’t need a majority – whoever wins this is going to win by a plurality.

Incumbent Governor Charlie Crist declared his independent candidacy after it became obvious he wasn’t going to get the GOP nomination.

The Democratic nomination is still up for grabs. The front-runner is Congressman Kendrick Meek, but Jeff Greene has big bucks to spend. 2006 gubernatorial candidate Rod Smith still has time to announce. The primary will be August 24.

NYT analysis from 04/29/10:

Other possible factors:

Crist is almost certainly gay, despite his denial and despite his recent high-profile marriage to a socialite. Everybody knows it. Nobody has ever made an issue of this in any previous election where Crist has been a candidate – but he has never been in a national-profile race like this before.

Kendrick Meek, if elected, would be the first African-American senator from Florida ever – in fact, the first statewide-elected official since Reconstruction. When I (recently) learned he is AA, I flashed on Doug Jamerson, whom you’ve probably never heard of even if you’re a Floridian. He was the state Commissioner of Education 1993-94 – ordinarily an elected position, but Jamerson was appointed to it by Governor Chiles after the incumbent CoE, Betty Castor, resigned to take a job as president of the University of South Florida. Jamerson ran for actual election to the post in 1994 and, being an AA, carefully kept his picture off all his campaign literature; but the campaign of Republican candidate Frank Brogan made very sure the voters knew what Jamerson’s race was, and he lost. He might have lost if he were white, it was a Republican year; but I’ve always believed that if race were not a factor, most voters would have stayed with the incumbent for an office few of them think about much. OTOH, Florida’s electoral votes went for Obama in 2008. Have things in Florida changed enough that an openly black candidate could win a statewide office? I dunno.

So, in November, Florida’s voters may have a choice between a nr, a fg, and a N******l. :wink:

2

Well analyzed, BG. Didn’t realize you were a Floridian. My bet would be Rubio. He controls the Latino vote and he’ll catch enough Blue Dogs to win it.

Which sucks. I can’t forgive Rubio for the crap he pulled in the Legislature. “Let’s pass a bunch of stuff that can’t be paid for, but won’t come due until I’m out of office! Yeah, that’s the ticket!” Typical 'Pubbie “small government” (translated to: I don’t have to pay for it) bullshit.

3

Getting Deja-vu from the other thread, but just to repeat myself, the evidence that Crist is gay is pretty thin. He’s been romantically linked to several woman over the years, been married twice and has consistently denied being gay. The evidence the other way is based on claims from a few gay men who claim to have slept with him, but don’t have any public link to Crist. I don’t buy that “everyone knows” he’s gay.

As to the race, Crist seems to be be grabbing a sizable chunk of Meek’s support, enough to put him in the lead last time I checked. The race then seems to be Rubio vs Crist, with Crist putting himself in the center-left and Meek getting marginalized. I’d say Meek’s only chance is that Crist and Rubio manage to both link each other to the current GOP embezzling scandal, and so tear each other down enough that the electorate votes for the Dem out of lack of another option.

4

I won’t be surprised if Meek doesn’t even get the Democratic nomination. He seems to be living up to his name and Greene is buying lots of air time.

5

I’m still studying it all, and doing my homework.

Right now, I can only say I’m ABR

Anyone But Rubio

6

That’s probably who I’m voting for - Crist or the Democrat, whoever has a chance to keep Rubio from national office. Although maybe it’s safer to have him in the Senate than in the Governor’s mansion.

7

I’ve gotten some serious* mail from the Jeff Greene campaign recently. Not sure how he’s polling or what he’s really about, but he spending some serious dosh on this.

*Serious here means very expensive pieces. I have worked in the print industry and have an idea of what it costs to print the kind of stuff they’re sending.

8

I will be volunteering for whoever polls better against Rubio after next month. Can’t vote. :frowning:

I do like Crist personally a lot better than any of the other candidates, for what it’s worth; you say “flip-flopper”, I say “not bound to retarded ideology”.

9

Crist widens lead over Rubio.

10

Saw a Rubio sticker for the first time yesterday. I’ve probably seen a dozen Crist (Senate run) stickers. Orlando’s a very purple town, of course.

11

That’s interesting. They’re all over the place here, but this is a very weird town. It’s very blue or very red depending on where you are.

Edited to add: Also, maybe selection bias is creeping in here, but it’s gotten to the point where if the car is being driven by a self-important jackass who drives like an idiot, I’m not surprised to see the Marco! sticker on the back.

12

With the scorched earth campaign Rubio is waging against Crist, this was interesting. From CQ Politics…

13

Yeah, Crist is the de facto Democrat in this race. Well, at least until the wind changes or he sees something shiny somewhere else…

14

When you think about it, in an election year which right now looks to be a bad one for Democrats, Crist is probably not unlike the most liberal Democrat who could win this particular election.

15

It’s so nice to see the republicans shooting themselves in the foot in what should have been a great year for them like this. Crist is still going to vote republican in most things but he’s going to have that (I) next to his name instead of what would have been a guaranteed ® and he knows the party has no problems throwing him overboard.

16

Poor Kendrick Meek…

17

The movie “Outrage” ,which is a movie done by gays who are outing gays that vote against their fellow gays, covered Christ. They made it clear they have them on the gay list. It should make no difference ,except voting against your own to keep in office is hypocritical.

18

That’s a bit much. Even if he’s gay, he’s also rich and white. Republicans win 2-1.

19

I’m not sure being “on the gay list” is particularly strong evidence one way or another. Its basically just another way of saying what I already said: “claims from a few gay men who claim to have slept with him, but don’t have any public link to Crist”.

Of course maybe he is gay and slept with the men in question, but the fact that a few gay men with nothing to loose claim to have been romantically involved with him hardly makes him “almost certainly gay” as the OP claims (here and in every other thread where Crist’s name comes up).

20

FYI: As Crist is running for Senate, and decided not to run for a second term as governor, the governorship is now open and will be on the ballot this November.

Thread on the gubernatorial race.