The Florida Senate election

[BrainGlutton]

Earlier GD thread.

The 2010 Florida Senate election is shaping up to be a very interesting race, perhaps the most interesting in the U.S. this year, because it is going to be a hotly contested three-way one. Much out-of-state money and attention will be coming here.

The Republican nominee almost certainly will be Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio. IMO, he's much too conservative to swing a majority in a "purple" state that went for Obama in 2008. But he doesn't need a majority -- whoever wins this is going to win by a plurality.

Incumbent Governor Charlie Crist declared his independent candidacy after it became obvious he wasn't going to get the GOP nomination.

The Democratic nomination is still up for grabs. The front-runner is Congressman Kendrick Meek, but Jeff Greene has big bucks to spend. 2006 gubernatorial candidate Rod Smith still has time to announce. The primary will be August 24.

NYT analysis from 04/29/10:

Kendrick Meek, Democrat

Biggest Advantage:

No one would seem to benefit more from a Crist run as an independent than Kendrick Meek, for one simple reason: the numbers are on his side. There are at least 650,000 more registered Democrats in Florida than Republicans, and assuming Mr. Meek wins the primary and registration continues along its expected path, that lead would amount to about two percentage points in November. If he does better with Democratic voters than either Mr. Crist or Mr. Rubio do with Republicans — and Mr. Crist does not win nearly every independent vote — Mr. Meek becomes Florida’s next senator.

“If we had told anyone we are looking seriously at Florida this time last year, they would have said, ‘what’s wrong with you?’ ” said Senator Robert Menendez of New Jersey, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. “And look at how the dynamics of that race has changed.”

Biggest Challenge:

Name recognition; Though he is a congressman, Mr. Meek remains relatively unknown outside his Miami district. “Meek has been in the race for 17 months, collected 120,000 petitions and still has roughly the same name ID as he had when he started,” Mr. Schale said. He has about $3.7 million in his campaign coffers and will need much more to make himself a well-known brand. “There is a reason why very few candidates win one of the principal statewide offices on their first run,” Mr. Schale said. “He will need to spend a lot to introduce himself.”


Marco Rubio, Republican

Biggest Advantage:

Mr. Rubio’s rise from long-shot to front-runner came quickly, and he enters the race with the energetic support of Tea Party activists and the G.O.P. establishment. Republicans in Washington and Tallahassee are gunning for Mr. Crist after years of frustration with what they see as his selfish, poll-following approach — and Mr. Rubio’s campaign advisors believe that independents will either join their cause or stay away. “Current turn-out intensity among G.O.P. voters in Florida is far higher than either Democrat or independent voters, meaning independents could make up an even smaller percentage of the actual vote on Election Day,” two Rubio advisors wrote in a memo on Wednesday. “Secondly, it is a mistake to assume that independent voters are politically moderate. In fact, survey after survey this year has found that voter anger about Washington spending and the growth of government is every bit as high among independent voters as it is among Republicans.”

Biggest Challenge:

The Tea Party is not enough: Mr. Rubio has said he would not change his fiery, fiscally conservative message for the general election, but the activist wing of the Republican Party is not enough to get him to victory. There are signs that he has already moderated his approach — this week he criticized the new Arizona immigration law. If he goes too far to the middle, he angers his most ardent fans. If he does not go far enough, he may lose the swing voters in places like the Route I-4 corridor between Tampa and Orlando, where recent Florida elections have been won.


Charlie Crist, No Party Affiliation

Biggest Advantage:

Everyone knows Mr. Crist. He has served for more than a decade in public office, and his approval ratings are higher than those of some other governors in states suffering greatly from the recession. His everyman appeal (complete with flowered shirts, opposition to rate hikes from utilities and insurance companies, and “I feel your pain” expressions) now combines with his ability to say he is running against partisan extremism. And with his veto of a controversial education bill tying teacher pay to student performance, he now has a high-profile example that is already paying dividends.

Several teachers joined him on stage with him for his announcement. "We are a very loyal bunch of people," said Andy Ford, president of Florida’s largest teachers union. "A lot of people are thinking we owe him this because he stood up for us."

Biggest Challenge:

Money and infrastructure: When Senator Joseph I. Lieberman ran and won as an independent in Connecticut four years ago, he had a national fund-raising base among the Jewish community, and a trusted campaign staff. Mr. Crist, has about $7.6 million on hand but by bolting the Republican Party he loses growth potential. “It takes $20 million to be competitive and he is going to have huge defections from his fundraiser base,” said Randy Nielsen, a Republican consultant in West Palm Beach. “The turnstiles will be busier than a New York subway at 5 o’clock.” This could matter greatly down the stretch. Mr. Lieberman’s campaign, for example, focused heavily on simple logistics — recruiting poll workers and running utilitarian advertisements pointing out where he could be found on the ballot. Mr. Crist, in a state filled with older voters, may need precious dollars to do the same.

Other possible factors:

Crist is almost certainly gay, despite his denial and despite his recent high-profile marriage to a socialite. Everybody knows it. Nobody has ever made an issue of this in any previous election where Crist has been a candidate -- but he has never been in a national-profile race like this before.

Kendrick Meek, if elected, would be the first African-American senator from Florida ever -- in fact, the first statewide-elected official since Reconstruction. When I (recently) learned he is AA, I flashed on Doug Jamerson, whom you've probably never heard of even if you're a Floridian. He was the state Commissioner of Education 1993-94 -- ordinarily an elected position, but Jamerson was appointed to it by Governor Chiles after the incumbent CoE, Betty Castor, resigned to take a job as president of the University of South Florida. Jamerson ran for actual election to the post in 1994 and, being an AA, carefully kept his picture off all his campaign literature; but the campaign of Republican candidate Frank Brogan made very sure the voters knew what Jamerson's race was, and he lost. He might have lost if he were white, it was a Republican year; but I've always believed that if race were not a factor, most voters would have stayed with the incumbent for an office few of them think about much. OTOH, Florida's electoral votes went for Obama in 2008. Have things in Florida changed enough that an openly black candidate could win a statewide office? I dunno.

So, in November, Florida's voters may have a choice between a n****r, a f*g, and a N*********l.

[Zakalwe]

Well analyzed, BG. Didn't realize you were a Floridian. My bet would be Rubio. He controls the Latino vote and he'll catch enough Blue Dogs to win it.

Which sucks. I can't forgive Rubio for the crap he pulled in the Legislature. "Let's pass a bunch of stuff that can't be paid for, but won't come due until I'm out of office! Yeah, that's the ticket!" Typical 'Pubbie "small government" (translated to: I don't have to pay for it) bullshit.

[Simplicio]

Getting Deja-vu from the other thread, but just to repeat myself, the evidence that Crist is gay is pretty thin. He's been romantically linked to several woman over the years, been married twice and has consistently denied being gay. The evidence the other way is based on claims from a few gay men who claim to have slept with him, but don't have any public link to Crist. I don't buy that "everyone knows" he's gay.

As to the race, Crist seems to be be grabbing a sizable chunk of Meek's support, enough to put him in the lead last time I checked. The race then seems to be Rubio vs Crist, with Crist putting himself in the center-left and Meek getting marginalized. I'd say Meek's only chance is that Crist and Rubio manage to both link each other to the current GOP embezzling scandal, and so tear each other down enough that the electorate votes for the Dem out of lack of another option.

[ShibbOleth]

I won't be surprised if Meek doesn't even get the Democratic nomination. He seems to be living up to his name and Greene is buying lots of air time.

[purple granny]

I'm still studying it all, and doing my homework.

Right now, I can only say I'm ABR

Anyone But Rubio

[ShibbOleth]

Originally Posted by purple granny

I'm still studying it all, and doing my homework.

Right now, I can only say I'm ABR

Anyone But Rubio

That's probably who I'm voting for - Crist or the Democrat, whoever has a chance to keep Rubio from national office. Although maybe it's safer to have him in the Senate than in the Governor's mansion.

[ShibbOleth]

I've gotten some serious* mail from the Jeff Greene campaign recently. Not sure how he's polling or what he's really about, but he spending some serious dosh on this.

*Serious here means very expensive pieces. I have worked in the print industry and have an idea of what it costs to print the kind of stuff they're sending.

[Really Not All That Bright]

Originally Posted by purple granny

I'm still studying it all, and doing my homework.

Right now, I can only say I'm ABR

Anyone But Rubio

I will be volunteering for whoever polls better against Rubio after next month. Can't vote.

I do like Crist personally a lot better than any of the other candidates, for what it's worth; you say "flip-flopper", I say "not bound to retarded ideology".

[BrainGlutton]

Crist widens lead over Rubio.

[Really Not All That Bright]

Saw a Rubio sticker for the first time yesterday. I've probably seen a dozen Crist (Senate run) stickers. Orlando's a very purple town, of course.

[Zakalwe]

Originally Posted by Really Not All That Bright

Saw a Rubio sticker for the first time yesterday. I've probably seen a dozen Crist (Senate run) stickers. Orlando's a very purple town, of course.

That's interesting. They're all over the place here, but this is a very weird town. It's very blue or very red depending on where you are.

Edited to add: Also, maybe selection bias is creeping in here, but it's gotten to the point where if the car is being driven by a self-important jackass who drives like an idiot, I'm not surprised to see the Marco! sticker on the back.

[Jophiel]

With the scorched earth campaign Rubio is waging against Crist, this was interesting. From CQ Politics...

National Democratic fundraiser Nancy Jacobson organized a conference call last week to promote Florida Gov. Charlie Crist's Senate bid, providing further evidence of the governor's effort to court support in Democratic circles for his Independent campaign.

The invitation to the Friday morning call was distributed in Democratic lobbying and donor circles.
[...]
"I can assure you that this call will provide you with an opportunity to know the Governor of Florida better, and I am certain you will end up realizing that he is one of the most promising national leaders of our generation," Jacobson, who served as finance chair at the Democratic National Committee under President Bill Clinton, wrote in an email obtained by Roll Call.

[Zakalwe]

Yeah, Crist is the de facto Democrat in this race. Well, at least until the wind changes or he sees something shiny somewhere else...

[Really Not All That Bright]

When you think about it, in an election year which right now looks to be a bad one for Democrats, Crist is probably not unlike the most liberal Democrat who could win this particular election.

[DigitalC]

It's so nice to see the republicans shooting themselves in the foot in what should have been a great year for them like this. Crist is still going to vote republican in most things but he's going to have that (I) next to his name instead of what would have been a guaranteed (R) and he knows the party has no problems throwing him overboard.

[jayjay]

Poor Kendrick Meek...

[gonzomax]

Originally Posted by Simplicio

Getting Deja-vu from the other thread, but just to repeat myself, the evidence that Crist is gay is pretty thin. He's been romantically linked to several woman over the years, been married twice and has consistently denied being gay. The evidence the other way is based on claims from a few gay men who claim to have slept with him, but don't have any public link to Crist. I don't buy that "everyone knows" he's gay.

As to the race, Crist seems to be be grabbing a sizable chunk of Meek's support, enough to put him in the lead last time I checked. The race then seems to be Rubio vs Crist, with Crist putting himself in the center-left and Meek getting marginalized. I'd say Meek's only chance is that Crist and Rubio manage to both link each other to the current GOP embezzling scandal, and so tear each other down enough that the electorate votes for the Dem out of lack of another option.

The movie "Outrage" ,which is a movie done by gays who are outing gays that vote against their fellow gays, covered Christ. They made it clear they have them on the gay list. It should make no difference ,except voting against your own to keep in office is hypocritical.

[Really Not All That Bright]

That's a bit much. Even if he's gay, he's also rich and white. Republicans win 2-1.

[Simplicio]

Originally Posted by gonzomax

The movie "Outrage" ,which is a movie done by gays who are outing gays that vote against their fellow gays, covered Christ. They made it clear they have them on the gay list.

I'm not sure being "on the gay list" is particularly strong evidence one way or another. Its basically just another way of saying what I already said: "claims from a few gay men who claim to have slept with him, but don't have any public link to Crist".

Of course maybe he is gay and slept with the men in question, but the fact that a few gay men with nothing to loose claim to have been romantically involved with him hardly makes him "almost certainly gay" as the OP claims (here and in every other thread where Crist's name comes up).

[BrainGlutton]

FYI: As Crist is running for Senate, and decided not to run for a second term as governor, the governorship is now open and will be on the ballot this November.

Thread on the gubernatorial race.

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by jayjay

Poor Kendrick Meek...

This must be how Alan Schlesinger felt in 2006 . . . "Hey! FWEET! Over here! I'm a major-party candidate for the U.S. Senate! I'm in this race! I exist, dammit!"

[Chronos]

The movie "Outrage" ,which is a movie done by gays who are outing gays that vote against their fellow gays, covered Christ. They made it clear they have them on the gay list. It should make no difference ,except voting against your own to keep in office is hypocritical.

Has Crist particularly voted (or otherwise taken action) against gay rights, though? I can't see why there should be any problem with gay politicians staying in the closet, so long as they aren't hypocritical about it.

That's interesting. They're all over the place here, but this is a very weird town. It's very blue or very red depending on where you are.

I know what you mean... Here in Bozeman in 2008, there were Obama signs/bumper stickers everywhere I saw, but up until a few weeks before the election, I literally saw more campaign materials for Dwight D. Eisenhower than I did for McCain (someone dug up a genuine "I Like Ike" button from somewhere). And yet, McCain ended up winning Gallatin County by a decent margin, from all of the places outside the university's sphere of influence.

[Zakalwe]

Originally Posted by Chronos

Has Crist particularly voted (or otherwise taken action) against gay rights, though? I can't see why there should be any problem with gay politicians staying in the closet, so long as they aren't hypocritical about it.

IIRC, he supported the state constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage.

[gonzomax]

Originally Posted by Simplicio

I'm not sure being "on the gay list" is particularly strong evidence one way or another. Its basically just another way of saying what I already said: "claims from a few gay men who claim to have slept with him, but don't have any public link to Crist".

Of course maybe he is gay and slept with the men in question, but the fact that a few gay men with nothing to loose claim to have been romantically involved with him hardly makes him "almost certainly gay" as the OP claims (here and in every other thread where Crist's name comes up).

They were confident enough to put him in a movie. It was not some obscure list. You can probably watch" Outrage" on line.

[Zakalwe]

Originally Posted by Simplicio

but the fact that a few gay men with nothing to loose claim to have been romantically involved with him hardly makes him "almost certainly gay" as the OP claims (here and in every other thread where Crist's name comes up).

I have personal knowledge of one of the men who has said he slept with Charlie. The young man in question was NOT out at the time the rumor broke (broken by a female "friend" of his) and it caused the man in question some fairly serious personal issues. He was not a "gay man with nothing to loose [sic]."

Of course, none of this changes the fact that you are substantially right. Charlie's sexual orientation will probably never be known for sure and there is no real proof of his gayness (gayitude? gaiety?).

I also could give a shit. I hate Charlie for being a spineless wind-sock of a politician with no real beliefs. Who he fucks or blows has so little to do with it that it isn't measurable. The only upside to Charlie is that since the 'Pubbies fucked him, he's been sticking it to them with the veto pen.

[Really Not All That Bright]

Originally Posted by Zakalwe

IIRC, he supported the state constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage.

Not exactly. He didn't support it, per se, but didn't oppose it either, and won't come out and say that it should be repealed.

[Jophiel]

A PPP poll found that a majority of Crist's supporters want him to caucus with the Democrats should he win. This of course doesn't mean he will but it's what people are hoping for from him.

One thing we asked on the poll was whether people thought Charlie Crist should caucus with the Democrats or Republicans if he was elected. 43% of respondents said he should go with the Democrats and 37% with the Republicans.

Perhaps more interesting was what those planning to vote for Crist had to say. Within that group 55% said he should caucus with the Democrats to only 22% who expressed the opinion that he should join forces with the Republicans.

[Simplicio]

Originally Posted by Jophiel

A PPP poll found that a majority of Crist's supporters want him to caucus with the Democrats should he win. This of course doesn't mean he will but it's what people are hoping for from him.

Yea, its hard picturing him caucusing with the Dems, but on the other hand as neither of the actual democratic candidates look likely to take off, he does seem to be becoming the anti-Rubio candidate. And since the GOP seems to have more or less abandoned him, I doubt he'll pick up many supporters even if he does decide to promise to vote with the Republicans, while I bet a decent number of Meek supporters would at least consider it.

FWIW, I'll probably vote for him if he promsies to caucus with the Dems, and won't if he doesn't. So hey, he's guarenteed at least one extra vote if he goes Dem.

Out of curiosity, has any Senator every been elected without announcing beforehand which party they'd join? I know Lieberman promised to remain in the Dem caucus, and obviously there's not a lot of question who Bernie Sanders would side with. Has anyone ever run on a "I'll figure out whose side I'm on when I get there" campaign?

[gonzomax]

Originally Posted by Zakalwe

I have personal knowledge of one of the men who has said he slept with Charlie. The young man in question was NOT out at the time the rumor broke (broken by a female "friend" of his) and it caused the man in question some fairly serious personal issues. He was not a "gay man with nothing to loose [sic]."

Of course, none of this changes the fact that you are substantially right. Charlie's sexual orientation will probably never be known for sure and there is no real proof of his gayness (gayitude? gaiety?).

I also could give a shit. I hate Charlie for being a spineless wind-sock of a politician with no real beliefs. Who he fucks or blows has so little to do with it that it isn't measurable. The only upside to Charlie is that since the 'Pubbies fucked him, he's been sticking it to them with the veto pen.

His sexual orientation is not the problem. The fact that he ran openly against gays is. I do not ignore hypocrisy. When a guy turns on his own people for political expediency ,I can not ignore it. It is dishonest. He is untrustworthy.

[Zakalwe]

Originally Posted by gonzomax

His sexual orientation is not the problem. The fact that he ran openly against gays is. I do not ignore hypocrisy. When a guy turns on his own people for political expediency ,I can not ignore it. It is dishonest. He is untrustworthy.

Was this supposed to come across as hostile to me as it did?

'Cause, you know, read my last sentence and all. I agree with you that he's a worthless piece of shit.

If you were just venting, no sweat, blame my thin skin.

[Peremensoe]

Originally Posted by Chronos

I can't see why there should be any problem with gay politicians staying in the closet, so long as they aren't hypocritical about it.

Does lying about it count as keeping in the closet, or hypocrisy?

[Really Not All That Bright]

Originally Posted by Jophiel

A PPP poll found that a majority of Crist's supporters want him to caucus with the Democrats should he win. This of course doesn't mean he will but it's what people are hoping for from him.

43% is a plurality, not a majority. In any event, I don't think it's enough to sway him from his chosen course, whatever that may be.

[Jophiel]

Originally Posted by Really Not All That Bright

43% is a plurality, not a majority.

That's why I specified "his supporters". 55% of those planning to vote for Crist want him to caucus with the Democratic Party.

[Chronos]

Does lying about it count as keeping in the closet, or hypocrisy?

No. I'd prefer a response of "none of your business" (it isn't, after all) to a lie, but the lie is understandable given the current political climate.

[Really Not All That Bright]

Originally Posted by Jophiel

That's why I specified "his supporters". 55% of those planning to vote for Crist want him to caucus with the Democratic Party.

So you did. My mistake.

[BrainGlutton]

And Kendrick Meek beats Jeff Greene for the Dem nomination for Senate. Rubio just gave his victory speech for the Republican nomination -- not that there was any doubt.

So, the lineup is: Meek (D) vs. Crist (NPA) vs. Rubio (R).

[Really Not All That Bright]

Surprise, surprise.

[Ludovic]

Mark (heh!) me down as another for anyone but Rubio. I also need to see how the numbers shake out in the next month or so. I feel bad throwing gays under the bus, but as a heterosexual, not getting tea partiers in office is more important than supporting gay rights.

[Really Not All That Bright]

Rubio is gay?

[jayjay]

Originally Posted by Really Not All That Bright

Rubio is gay?

Considering the odds of a gay-hating conservative being gay himself at this point (thanks for adding another statistical datum, Ken Mehlman!), I wouldn't be surprised.

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by Ludovic

Mark (heh!) me down as another for anyone but Rubio. I also need to see how the numbers shake out in the next month or so. I feel bad throwing gays under the bus, but as a heterosexual, not getting tea partiers in office is more important than supporting gay rights.

Does that mean you're voting for Crist or for Meek?

[Ludovic]

Crist. If it's true that Crist supported restrictions on SSM, and Meek does not, and they are largely the same otherwise*, Meek would be the better candidate. But if Crist has a much better chance than Meek against Rubio, I will vote for Crist.

*Of course they are not, as no two people have the same policy views, but considering I am center-left in American domestic politics, there is a large chance that Meek and Crist will be on average just as good as each other from my point of view.

[Really Not All That Bright]

Perhaps more "on point" here, it is unlikely that our new Senator will be voting on anything SSM-related, at least during his first term.

[gonzomax]

Crist supported the ban on gay marriage and endorsed a ban on gay adoptions. He is political scum.

[gonzomax]

The repubs across the nation are taking a stand against Social Security and Medicare. I am not sure that will play in Florida with its aging population that votes. I think it will bite them unless they lie about it and convince the voters they are not.

[Zakalwe]

Yeah, I think Rubio's got a little bit of an uphill climb here (surprisingly). The more he caters to the right, the less attractive he is to the center (the left is a lost cause). His greatest hope at this point is that Charlie and Kendrick split the center and left votes somewhere down the middle leaving him at least the plurality winner. I can't recall if there'll be a runoff or not, but a runoff favors the extremist candidate since it's essentially a very rapid get-out-the-vote contest.

[BrainGlutton]

Breaking news: Florida is going for even more federal funding for the high-speed rail system. Crist himself is asking for it, so presumably he'll campaign on it. How do Meek and Rubio feel about that issue?

[Really Not All That Bright]

If Crist is for it, I think they have to be against it, on principle. Only they can't agree with each other, so... the universe implodes?

[BrainGlutton]

Originally Posted by Really Not All That Bright

If Crist is for it, I think they have to be against it, on principle. Only they can't agree with each other, so... the universe implodes?

NIBBLER: Everybody out of the Universe!

[BrainGlutton]

Hypothetical: Crist does not make an independent bid, is defeated by Rubio in the primary, bows out gracefully (with lots of cursing, but gracefully under the circumstances), and the general election is just Meek vs. Rubio. Who wins?