I assume that Clinton vs. Rubio for the general election is the most likely outcome at this point. What are the main factors that will affect the outcome of such an election? On the Democratic side I think the question is what would the Sanders supporters do. On the Repiblican side, would the anti-establishment voters who are supporting Trump or Cruz come out to vote for Rubio, or would they stay home? My gut tells me that Rubio will have a harder time getting the Trump and Cruz voters than Clinton will with the Sanders voters. On the other hand, Rubio is young, good looking, and more charismatic than Clinton. I’m sure he would take Florida without much difficulty, leaving the Democrats with Ohio and Virginia as the main swing states to defend. How do you all see such a race turning out?
The Sanders supporters will scream “We wuz robbed!” and then take a look at Rubio and vote for Clinton. If they vote at all. The Trump/Cruz supporters will scream . . . something less coherent and less printable, and then take a look at Clinton and vote for Rubio. If they vote at all. Neither set will be very much fired up for their candidate, so it’s a wash.
The revelation of Rubio’s homosexuality will ensure a landslide victory for Clinton.
I think you mean Senator Graham. I don’t believe Senator Rubio is homosexual (not that there’s anything wrong with that). Nor do I believe it would cost him the race.
I do agree that Clinton would beat the boy in the bubble, but not by a landslide. I think it is because even his supporters cannot name a single accomplishment.
Perfect! Now we just have to spend the next several months repeating that exact phrase, over and over and over, and no voter will get the misapprehension that Rubio is homosexual!
The Democrats will vote for Clinton, the Republicans will vote for Rubio, and the race will be decided by the independents.
If Rubio faints from anxiety while giving a speech, that will be bad.
I don’t know for certain, but aren’t most independents former moderate Republicans who left the party due to being disatisfied with the party moving to the right? If that’s the case, then Rubio might have a better chance than Romney or McCain had, due to Clinton’s negatives and having less charisma than Obama did. I think if the race does come down to these two that Rubio will have a better chance than Romney or McCain ever had.
You keep saying this. Doesn’t make it true or likely to happen.
Not sure if you’re being funny or what, but it’s slightly annoying.
I think a big factor will be Hispanic voters. If Rubio wins the nomination he will be the first Hispanic Presidential candidate, which normally would give him a major boost among Hispanic voters. But Trump has poisoned the waters for him by linking the Republican party with anti-Hispanic intolerance. The question will be how many Hispanic voters Rubio can win back.
As for Rubio’s charisma, a year ago I would have said that was a major advantage for him. But lately I’ve been finding that every time I watch a Rubio campaign ad, I find myself having negative feelings about Rubio. I don’t know if it’s just me but Rubio seems to be suffering from the Giuliani effect - he seems okay at a distance but you find yourself disliking him the more you get to know him.
Finally I agree with the OP that there will be an issue of how bitter the struggle will be between Clinton supporters and Sanders supporters.
I spent a little time in Iowa last December. Based on the Rubio ads I went from moderate indifference to red hot hate.
Hispanics are hardly monolithic - Rubio (and Ted Cruz, for that matter) are Cuban. I don’t think that voters of other Latin American ancestry - from Mexico in particular - are going to line up to vote for Rubio solely because of his last name. Although they would probably prefer him to Trump.
Record low turnout. I’d probably still go to the polls to fill out the down-ballot races, but might leave President blank. I’d probably hold my nose and vote for Hillary over Trump or Cruz, but probably not over anyone else likely to be on the ballot.
Probably a Rubio victory, since the youth who support Bernie will mostly stay home. I think the right wing will still be motivated to defeat Hillary.
One major factor no one has mentioned is the state of the economy. Anyone who believes the Zerohedge website will know that things look bad.
This Zero Hedge?
Eh, realistically the factors will be can Rubio hold the white margin of victory that Romney enjoyed while improving on Romney’s results with minorities? In one election Bush carried like 44% of the Hispanic vote and was over 10% of the black vote in both elections. Romney IIRC won like 3% of the black vote and around a quarter of the Hispanic vote and the Asian vote. Hispanic and Asian voters in particular are fast growing parts of the electorate.
Romney’s campaign gets criticized for a lot of things but the biggest one was running a playbook designed to win a campaign with different demographics. Now, whether that was required because the GOP won’t allow someone (even someone who probably had more moderate positions than he actually ran on, like Romney) in this day and age to do anything to appeal to minorities, or if it’s because Romney really thought he could just win by dominating among whites I’m not sure.
But mark my words–the electorate will be a little less white in 2016 than it was in 2012. The GOP if anything is even more alienating toward minorities now than it was then. Yes, Obama was the recipient of massive support from the black community and it’s likely that an election that won’t feature any black candidate on either side may see that voter bloc move a little closer to its norm–so maybe Rubio can get 7-8% of the black vote. So the question then becomes will enough Hispanics ignore the fact that he’s taken an anti-immigrant position (flip flopping on his previous position on that topic) to win the nomination and vote for him because his dad’s from Cuba to win? With his set of policies and what the platform will be that he’s running on makes me suggest not. As others have mentioned Cuban-Americans and say, Mexican Americans don’t feel some magical affinity for each other just because they have Spanish last names and may or may not speak Spanish in the home. Hispanics are a much less culturally unified minority group than blacks (Asian Americans are also an extremely fractured group, but of course no Asian American candidate is in the race so the “home field advantage” isn’t something to discuss there.)
There’s been a lot of points made in recent years that even outside of immigration, the slate of Republican positions is deeply unappealing to a majority of Hispanics. Even without Barack Obama in the race, the Republican positions are deeply unappealing to blacks (even if you ignore outbreaks of blatant racism against blacks by Republican politicians.)
There’s some reason to suggest Rubio will do a little worse among white voters–keep in mind how old Romney’s white majority was. Also keep in mind that whites under 30 are a lot less conservative than whites over 50, and one of those demographics dies off at a greater rate than the other and is replaced by people who are statistically a little less conservative themselves. So if he does a little worse among whites with an arch-conservative platform that is slowly becoming unappealing to more and more Americans, maybe gets a slight bump in the black vote (just back to near the historic norm, because Obama winning 97-98% was a bit of an aberration in an electorate that often votes around 10% GOP), and doesn’t improve that much among Hispanics or Asians and Rubio is in essentially the same boat as Romney was–no demographic path to victory.
I think it would come down to Rubio’s credibility, performance(much as I hate that aspect of campaigning), and being as scandal-free as possible during the campaign.
Credibility- Rubio is a sheltered candidate, doing only scripted events for the most part. Forget not ready to be President, he’s not even ready to RUN for President yet. There is great potential for him to get totally exposed and lose big to the far more credible and ready Clinton.
Performance- That being said, when Rubio is on, he’s really, really good. Not Obama or Bill Clinton good, but very good and a lot better than Hillary. If the media fails to expose the empty suit, or the Clinton campaign commits political malpractice by also failing to expose the empty suit, Rubio can easily portray himself as the young, exciting, personable candidate to Hillary’s old, tired, cold persona.
Scandals- Clinton’s going to be a constant focus of investigative media. Rubio has some things going on too, but so far nothing the media has decided to turn into a big issue. In order for Rubio to beat Clinton, he has to be seen as the more honest candidate. There’s been enough stuff lurking in his background to make me wonder if something bigger might be waiting to be found.
All that aside, I do like Rubio and will support him over Clinton.
Does Hillary Clinton have any in-laws who were drug runners?
Really, if Marco Rubio is the most “presidential” candidate the one-time party of northern WASPs can put up, than this country is in a bad way.
Let me amend that. Rubio wouldn’t be Presidential if his ancestors had immigrated to Pennsylvania in 1655. The fact that he’s now trying to run as an anti-immigration child of immigrants in a quasi-nativist party is just additional hilarity.
I suspect the media isn’t going to be willing to go there. It’s too racially charged an issue.
And Rubio isn’t the most Presidential. He’s the most young, attractive, and articulate of the field.