Democrats only: who do you want to win the GOP nom and why?

Trump? His path to winning rests on a double down on the White non-college educated vote full pander mode and so long as he does not drive almost as many college educated White voters away in the process he can handle losing some additional Hispanic share. And it is completely possible that a few Black voters will find his demonizing another (or two) “other” as appealing. A small improvement there matters a lot. Playing with the 538 app all you have to do is get the non college educated White from 62% GOP to 69% with a 1% increase in turn out, and you can drop college educated White GOP share by 2% and the GOP wins with 273 EVs (losing the popular vote by 1%). OH, PA, FL, IA, NH, and WI flip. Still very improbable and biggest upside: the GOP puts all their eggs in the group in greatest demographic decline. Likely some major downticket wins in suburban and even exurban areas for the Democratic side.

Cruz? Similarly but perhaps not as intensely so. Not as likely to drive away college educated voters as completely.

Rubio? Likely would be just a harmful as the other two even if he plays someone less extreme in comparison. Won’t excite the White non-college educateds as much and the current GOP needs them in big numbers to win. But also won’t drive the turnout to come out against him. Clinton v Rubio would likely be a low turn out election and that helps a GOP candidate in general.

Others? Thoughts?

For the good of the country, I’d love to see the GOP get away from the mindset of “we’d win if only we’d nominate a REAL conservative.” I’d be delighted if they ran the most real conservative they can find and get it out of their system once and for all.

Trump, by far, because I want the general election to be handed to Hillary, or whoever the Dems end up nominating.

Kasich. I never underestimate the ability of Democrats to blow an election, and I want the Republican candidate to be very capable of leading the nation in that case. Kasich by far seems the best candidate of the bunch in that regards, considering his experience in government and general temperament.

Unless they were Philosophy majors. :wink:

I fear Jeb less than I fear most of the others.

Yes, I believe that Trump would be easier to beat than the others…but I don’t want him to be the nominee, because he scares me that much. What if he did win?

I’d prefer to minimize the maximum amount of harm, and I see Jeb as that minimax candidate.

Low-energy loser normie cuck Jeb! I’d love to have Clinton be able to bring up the disastrous presidency of his brother again even as a lot of angry working-class whites stay home.

Cruz with Trump running as a 3rd party candidate out of spite.

Hillary goes on Fox on election eve–confesses to everything–and still gets elected.

I’d prefer that the Republican nominee be somebody that I feel is capable of being a competent president, even though I would disagree with almost everything he does.

If I’m limited to one choice, I guess it would be Kasich.

That’s how we got Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan, emboldening the rise of the New Right. Although fortunately moderate =/= competent-Kasich has all the potential to be a GOP Jimmy Carter.

What’s your point? If, by some chance, the Republicans win the Presidency, I would prefer a Nixon or a Reagan or a Kasich to Trump, Carson, or Cruz.

Whoever the Republicans nominate has a chance of winning the election. To hope that someone wins the nomination that would make a horrible, terrible President is cutting off your nose to spite your face.


Trump. I want the Republicans to get this whack-a-doodle shit out of their system. If they nominate a fruitloop like Trump and he gets waxed by Hillary and the Republicans lose both chambers of Congress, MAYBE the Repubs will realize that pandering to the lunatic fringe isn’t in their best interest.

Trump, then Jeb, then Cruz – in order of ease of defeat, in my view.

This is my perfect storm also. Though if Trump goes rogue, it doesn’t matter who gets the GOP nod. Cruz would be more satisfying, as he would probably create the largest margin of victory for Clinton.

It’s easy to say who we want least: Rubio. He may be most likely to beat Hillary, yet might make the very worst President of any of the clowns.

Among the other frontrunners, I’d pick whomever is most likely to lose in November, but is that Trump or Cruz? Polls show Cruz doing better than Trump in a general election, and my gut tells me the foul-mouthed Trump couldn’t possibly get a majority … yet the numbers at Predictwise imply that oddsmakers think Trump has better general-election chances. :confused: What gives?


I’m gonna go with Trump here (though I’ll admit it’s a tough call), because I believe Trump’s political inexperience, and total absence of any actual policies, will harm him far more in a general election than in a primary.

Cruz is of course a genuine right-winger, but he knows what he’s doing politically.

My sense is that if Trump is the nominee, the Dems win big, and take back the House as well as the Senate. And if Cruz is the nominee, they win big, but not so big as against Trump. The Dems retake the Senate, but the House could go either way. If Rubio is the nominee, the Dems win, but it’s fairly close, and the House stays Republican.

While I would like to see the Democrats win, I put an even higher priority on both sides putting their best candidate forward, because that’s essential for our system to work properly. Kasich, I think, genuinely wants to do what’s best for his constituents. He and I have very different ideas about what’s best, but I can’t even say that much about the others.

It’s true that going full-on crazy with Trump or Cruz might drive the Republican party to do this next cycle. But if we’re going to be wishing here anyway, we might as well wish for sanity now, instead of sanity four years from now.

Yep, I agree. Unlike others here, I don’t think that nominating a crazy like Trump or some “true conservative” would teach the Republicans anything if either of those lost the election.

Isn’t that the truth. Remember the post mortem after 2012? That has all been forgotten as this time Republican voters want to see if the angriest candidate has any better luck.