Well, a junior Senator from Chicago wouldn’t be Presidential material either if his name had been Dick Durbin.
This is a very perceptive summary of the political part of the situation.
Significant other factors are:
- The D’s have the problem of being stale; the presidency is mostly “due” to change parties regardless of the candidates. Not too often in recent decades can a single party hold the office for 3 (or more) straight elections.
2: State of the economy. Substantially all the risks over the next nine months are in the anti-incumbent party = pro-R direction.
These two items could easily trump (heh) the more political factors **adaher **astutely points out.
Looking within his analysis, IMO it really turns on the scandal issue for both candidates and how their respective scandals are sold by the opposition and perceived by their supporters and by the ever-shrinking middle.
When the Bill Clinton & Lewinski thing was going on most folks thought it was an actual scandal with the typical level of partisan amplification & minimization by the two sides.
When the Benghazi investigations -I, -II, -III, -IV, and -V were going on, while Fox spewed all day every day about it and the rest of the media was yawning after BI-I came up mostly empty-handed, a lot of people concluded the whole thing was a RW propaganda-fest with no reality. The fact the subsequent investigations kept coming back non-committal certainly helped with that perception.
Looking ahead …
For Hillary there’s certainly some smoke the RW media can try to fan into a fire. And there may be some new smoke we don’t even know of yet. Their challenge, and not one they’re real good at, is to fan it enough to sell to the middle, but not so over the top that they get tuned out by all but their raving base.
For Rubio, the LW challenge is to find a scandal then pump it properly. IMO LW media is both a less monolithic force, and one with a bit more finesse. As such they’re better at properly gauging the pump than they are at finding the raw material. Assuming it exists to be found. Certainly the BIL drug dealer is a gift from Heaven that may have more string attached.
It will be interesting to watch.
Humans love to find patterns in things, but the history of Presidential election outcomes is not at all inconsistent with the assumption that each election is independent of previous ones. You get about the same number of runs of the same length as you would from a series of coin flips.
The lameshit media might be scared but over the course of the primary campaign, the courageous, intrepid foot soldiers of the TRUMP movement in Breitbart and elsewhere will have no such qualms thank God.
Why do you keep presenting this as if it’s 100% known fact? Cite that’s more than rumor or speculation, please.
As an agnostic, I won’t use “amen,” but you said this nicer than I would have.
Would Obama have won last time if he didn’t have 99% of the black vote, and if black voters hadn’t turned out in higher than average numbers? If Hillary gets only 70% or so of the black vote will it make a difference? I guess it depends on how many black votes are in ‘swing’ states.
This election is the Republican’s to lose. It’s nearly unprecedented for one party to hold the white house for three terms, Hillary is at best a flawed candidate, the economy is bad, the state of the world is lousy, people are in an angry, anti-establishment mood and Hillary is the ultimate establishment figure. She was counting on running a ‘war on women’ campaign, but her husband’s antics have made that problematic. Hillary is gaffe-prone, can get shrill and angry, and generally looks like yesterday’s news in an election that’s about change.
So it’s the Republican’s to lose… Which means they’ll probably lose. Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory is what they do best. They’ll probably elect Trump, or make the candidates sign a pledge to personally march all Muslims out of the country at gunpoint or something equally stupid.
You better believe Clinton only fears one Republican candidate and that is Mr. Homo Himself Marco Rubio.
Which antics are those? The ones from 20 years ago that the Right has decided to bring out of the mothballs? I doubt very seriously that even Monica and/or Hillary gives a shit about Monica gobbling Bill’s knob.
Because Bill hasn’t done anything to impede Hillary this election season. The only thing there is that a guy got a blow job from someone chick who wasn’t his wife, and that happened before the first grey hair showed up in my beard, and I’ll be 43 Wednesday.
ETA: Stringbean, can I extend the same request to you that I made to Qin? As someone who states that Rubio is homosexual, can you offer some evidence that’s not speculation or rumor?
Cite, please?
I.e., the skinniest guy in Fat Camp.
Why do you keep CAPTALIZING all the letters in tRUMP’s name? Do you worship him? Is he like unto a god to you? Or are you just unfamiliar with the Caps Lock key?
Because, regardless of the reason, doing it just makes your arguments look stupider than they usually are.
Remember though. You don’t need to outrun the bear. You just need to outrun the other campers.
Somebody will be the R (and D) nominee. Warts, baggage, and all.
And even in the general, the candidates don’t need to be the personification of their party’s ideal. They just need to outrun the other guy/gal.
“None of the above” cannot win these races. Rubio, Cruz, Trump, Hillary, or Sanders will. Barring a late surge by Jeb$.
I gotta say, I have to agree with Superdude up there. If you can Qin are going to keep repeating this you’d better damn well be willing to back it up. Otherwise, stop with the gaybashing.
And gaybashing is exactly what you two are doing. So stop it. Warning issued for hate speech.
It’s not just you. He seems weasely and insincere even by the standards of politicians. I think part of it may be the dichotomy between his fairly normal appearance and calm mannerisms and the extremist bullshit that comes out of his mouth. At least with Cruz and the Donald, nothing they say can surprise me.
Hey, JC, can I use your support as my sig? I’m tired of getting tomatoes throw at me for having Bricker’s.
I kid, Bricker. Just feel like a change.
Um. Feel free? But know that it carries no particular weight. Except mine, which is too much already.
Of course Clinton will lose if she only gets 70% of the black vote. By the same token, she’ll lose if New York or California flips Republican. But in what universe is any of those a realistic possibility?
And I don’t think that the talk about Rubio’s alleged homosexuality is actually necessarily gaybashing. I expect that most of the posters here don’t give a damn about his sexuality, and in fact probably the majority of the nation doesn’t, either. But there is still a sizable demographic for whom that would be a major problem, sizable enough that it would make it nearly impossible for a gay Republican to win. Should they care? No, but that doesn’t change the fact that they do.
Of course, this is predicated on the premise that Rubio is actually gay, and that there is some plausible evidence for it, which is a pretty big if.
And what were Obama’s accomplishments before his election?
Did you see his third-place victory speech? He kept pausing to try and work up some saliva, but he was dry as a desert. You know he was looking for a water bottle, but didn’t dare pick it up after the debacle following the State of the Union address.
We can comfortably say yes, because he didn’t get 99% of the black votes last time. He got 95%, which is nearly identical to every election since at least 2000. 30% of black voters voting for a Republican presidential candidate would be unprecedented in recent times.
I’m going to agree with some of this and disagree with some of it. I think that Clinton is not as good a candidate as Obama was. As for the economy and the state of the world being lousy, I think that’s something the Republicans are spinning to try and rally their base. I just don’t see how anyone can honestly believe that we are worse off now than we were 7 years ago. The part about Clinton being gaffe-prone and shrill are part of what makes her not as good a candidate as Obama was. As for the last part, only time will tell, but I have a bad feeling it’s the Democrats who will be snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, although that may just be my inner pessimist speaking.