Who will win the US General Election in 2016 (February Edition)

Now that the political field has narrowed a bit, why don’t we give this a try.

Try to set aside any of your own political biases. Who do you think will in the General Election?

Hillary Clinton

Hillary is easily the best bet right now – according to Predictwise (can’t link right now), she has about a 90% chance of winning the Democratic nomination, and the Democratic nominee has about a 60% chance of winning the general election. Even if it’s only 50-50 for the general, that’s far superior odds to any of the Republicans, none of whom have more than about a 50% of getting the nomination, according to Predictwise.

Clinton 44, Trump 43
Cruz 46, Clinton 43
Rubio 48, Clinton 41
Kasich 47, Clinton 39
Sanders 48, Trump 42
Sanders 49, Cruz 39
Sanders 47, Rubio 41
Sanders 45, Kasich 41

You guys are showing your Clinton bias again.

I don’t even like Clinton and I picked her. If I’m showing any bias it’s a “polls are bullshit” bias. On the other hand, the polls are doing a better job of predicting things than I am (this cycle anyway), so maybe I should answer according to the numbers.

Of the options left, I like Rubio or Kasich best (or perhaps best to say dislike them least), but I don’t think it’s going to happen that way. If the GOP puts up Trump or Cruz, I’ll be voting for Hillary myself.

General election head-to-head polls during primaries are largely bullshit. It’s early, no one on either side has started “general” campaigning yet. There have been no debates. There is months of news coverage, Internet memes, late-night comedy, etc. still un-tapped. All of those things move the polls.

But if you want to say Sanders, go right ahead. This is a thread for people’s opinions.


This anger is perfect.

I’ll admit, I did not expect the thread poll results to be this lopsided.

As a moderate Republican, I chose Hillary because I am not confidant that Trump or Cruz can get a majority of US voters to vote for them. They have their strong bases, but too many Republican voters do not like them.

This could be the first election where I do not vote for anyone.

I think once Cruz and Rubio finally drop out, Carson is going to pick up most of their supporters. And his trustworthiness numbers are much better than Clinton’s.

General election polls this early tell us nothing about actual general elections, but even if they did, this wouldn’t necessarily answer the OP. Bernie could get 100% against all the Republicans, but if he doesn’t win the nomination, he won’t win in the general. Right now, if we believe that Hillary is much more likely to win the nomination than Bernie, than she is a much better pick to win the general election.

If Hillary has an 80% chance to win the nomination, and a 50% chance to win the general election if she is nominated, then she has a (80% * 50%) = 40% chance to win the general election.

If Bernie has a 20% chance to win the nomination, and a 75% chance to win the general election if he is nominated, then he has a (20% * 75%) = 15% chance to win the general election.

I voted for Rubio. Here’s why:

First, I think he is the favourite to win the Republican nomination. He came in second in South Carolina to Trump, and that was huge. Trump has a hard ceiling somewhere below 40%, and the only reason he’s winning right now is because the non-Trump vote was split between Cruz, Rubio, Kasich, and Bush.

Bush just pulled out of the race, and Kasich has passed the point of his strongest region. Both of them are ‘establishment’ candidates, and their votes are going to go predominantly to Rubio. So my guess is that after South Carolina Rubio will begin to pick up a bit of steam and Cruz will fall to a habitual third. Eventually it will come down to Trump/Rubio, and in that scenario I think Rubio wins.

On the Democratic side, Hillary will be the nominee. The deck is stacked, and everyone knows it. Sanders has been getting all the attention and either beating her or coming very close in every contest, but she’s way ahead in delegates because of the system the Democrats rigged specifically to ensure that the establishment politicians do not lose to fringe candidates. I don’t see how Bernie threads that needle.

So that’s my ‘mainstream’ prediction, but I’ve got to say that this year is so crazy I wouldn’t be surprised if anyone won. I also think there’s a good chance that a candidate will parachute in on either the Republican or Democrat side. If Trump gets the nomination, it’s going to throw the Republican party into chaos. Unless he absolutely crushes everyone else in delegates, expect a very contentious convention. Also, expect someone like Michael Bloomberg to get into the race.

On the Democratic side, there are a couple of wildcards. The first being Hillary’s E-mail investigation. If she gets indicted, her Superdelegates will be free to jump ship and either go to Sanders or rally behind someone else in a brokered convention. I think her health may also be in question, and she’s also a terrible campaigner. So while she’s the heavy favorite to win the Democratic nomination right now, there are some wildcards that could be dealt.

In the general, if Rubio goes up against either of them, he wins. On paper, that is. It’s a long time to the election, and either side could make gaffes or have information uncovered about them that changes the whole thing. But if I had to bet on that matchup today, I’d pick Rubio. But I wouldn’t bet very much.

If Sanders is nominated, I think it will crack up a good chunk of the Democrats. And again, don’t be surprised if someone like Bloomberg jumps into the race at that point. Establishment Democrats are terrified of another Dukakis/Mondale/McGovern result, and they don’t want a candidate who won’t play nice with their friends at Goldman Sachs and Fannie Mae.

So… A Hillary/Marco race is probably one that both establishments could live with, and that makes it the most likely result. YMMV. It’s a crazy year.

You guys are so cute. :slight_smile:

Is there a particular reason her health is in question?

While this is a nice idea, I’m pretty sure at this point that it won’t happen. The latest polling combined with the actual results so far… no, there’s no way. Even if evidence comes out that Trump tortured kittens in a Satanic ritual paid for with campaign funds, well that would hardly be the most outlandish thing Trump has done. And yet he’s got the most delegates and even if he’s stuck with second place finishes for the rest of the season, he’ll still do better than anyone else.

Let’s face it: Trump robbed the tomb of Steve Jobs and stole the reality distortion field. I think the GOP is stuck running Trump unless someone has the balls to kick him out of the party by fiat.

Let’s all think happy thoughts, like Marge Simpson. As Homer said, we all win. Well, not really. But unless Rubio wins the nomination, Hillary wins in a cakewalk.

If coming in second to Trump is huge, then what do you call coming in first and being Trump? And maybe he does have a ceiling of 40%, but that’s plenty in a race that’s so crowded, especially with so many winner-take-all (or winner-take-most) states. Trump will have an insurmountable delegate lead by the time the field thins out enough to mount a serious challenge.

Bartender, I’ll have what he’s having…

But yes, it should be Hilary, unless the only great spirit I truly believe in takes a hand.

That would be Murphy, of course. Still early.

Why do people keep saying this? No, if Trump comes in second the rest of the race he will not necessarily win. If he comes in second in Texas behind Cruz, that will almost tie them up - the winner gets 2/3 of the 155 delegates. Georgia has 76 that similarly gives 2/3rds to the winner. Then you have big winner take all states like Florida’s 99 delegates and California’s 176. Trump is only ahead by 50 delegates in a race to 1237. Why does everyone act like he’s got it in the bag? He possibly could win with a lot of second places.

“Don’t you think she looks tired?”

Yes, which the political scientists interviewed by Vox found “blindingly obvious”. I wish this would filter through to more of the general public.