Let’s play a game. Vote for the 3 people who you think are most likely going to be the next President of the United States. For instance, I believe the race will come down to Rubio vs. Clinton, so these two will be my votes one and two. I think the next most likely scenario will be Bush vs. Clinton. This means Bush would be my 3rd vote even though I think Hillary could take Jeb in the general. I don’t see Trump winning in any likely scenario nor do I see anybody but Hillary on the Democratic ticket. YMMV obviously, thus the poll.
Note: If you think Hillary will lose not matter who gets the Republican nomination you should vote for 3 Republicans. Also, I have made this a public poll so we can make sure nobody votes for more than 3 candidates.
Either Hillary Clinton, she is the presumptive Democratic frontrunner, and she has the demographics to win. Marco Rubio is young, talented, and can beat Hillary in Ohio, Minnesota, Iowa, Florida, and even Oregon. Dark Horse, California Attorney General Kamala Harris. She is young, African American woman, who can generate enthusiasm if Hillary Clinton drops out. Expect to hear Kamala Harris ’ s name for the next couple of weeks and months.
Another dark horse choice - South Dakota Sen. John Thune. Dangerously handsome, spas well, could give the Democrats problems. A safe choice for GOP in a brokered convention as a compromise candidate.
While GloryDays makes the case for Alf Landon and that nice La Follette fellow, I’m kind of surprised to see everyone else has settled on Clinton/Bush/Rubio. Actually, no, I’m not. They’re the only candidates with reasonable chances right now. So I’ll make a little prediction right here and now: The winnowing will be hard and fast after the new year, Bush will be the last Republican standing, and the GOP will wonder why it continues to fail to pick up the Hispanic vote.
Rubio winning the primary would surprise me. Cruz winning would shock me. Anyone else winning would downright astound me.
Hillary’s got a lock on the Dem nomination, so she’s the obvious first choice. And even if it weren’t the conventional wisdom that the GOP race is coming down to Cruz v. Rubio, that would be the way I see it.
So since the Dem and the GOP nominees will be the only people with a shot at the Presidency, the three people with plausible chances to be those nominees are the three people most likely to be President in 14 months.
I think that the most likely to win the Republican nomination are Rubio and Trump, but if Trump wins the nomination, there’s no way he’ll win the general. Bush has the deck stacked against him three ways: The normal candidates are doing poorly enough as it is, even among them he’s got nothing to recommend him over Rubio, and if the general election comes down to Clinton vs. Bush, it’s going to go the same way as the last time those two names were on the ticket. So Rubio is the only Republican on my list.
On the Democratic side, obviously Clinton is most likely, but Sanders still has a chance.
If it went to four, then I think that Cruz would be in that spot. He could win the nomination if the clowns all fizzle out and their supporters coalesce around him (which is clearly his plan), and if something big happens to shift the mood of the electorate in the next year, he’s got a chance at the general, but I put the odds of each of those less than the corresponding chances for Sanders.
Anyone beyond those four, it would require a major meteor impact at one of the debates, or some similarly ground-changing event.
Predictwise currently shows #1 Hillary, #2 Rubio and #3 Trump as most likely to be the next President. But I skipped #3 and #4 Cruz to make #5 Jeb! my 3rd choice. Trump won’t be nominated. Cruz, if nominated, will be anathema to any centrist with even the slightest modicum of information. There’s a long haul ahead and Jeb! may stage a comeback.
The GOP may end up rejecting all of the Seventeen Clowns and going with … Romney?
A flame-out or health crisis might dethrone Hillary, but who would the Democrats nominate instead? Probably not Sanders. Biden?
Clinton, by a landslide, followed by Jeb! and Cruz. Rubio is also a decent vote. I fully admit that I might be relying on historical precedent too much - I keep expecting Trump/Carson to bomb and Bush to just scrape by, but the radical right wing might get their way in the primaries this time around.
