I know adahar has a thread about his election predictions, so I thought we should have a thread where everyone can post their predictions. Feel free to post about any of the races taking place for the November 2016 USA election, this isn’t limited to the POTUS election. I envision this as a thread that we can look back after the election and see how close everyone is with their predictions. Feel free to reply about another prediction, but I would prefer this not turn into an extended debate about any one particular prediction. I will post my predictions in the next post.
- I predict that the only Republican currently running for POTUS that can win the general election is John Kasich.
- I predict Joe Biden won’t run unless Clinton drops out before the end of the year.
- I predict the Democrats will retake the Senate and make some slight gains in the House.
- I predict that at some point before Valentine’s Day of next year, Bernie Sanders will be listed as having at least a 10% chance or more of winning the Democratic nomination. I’ll use Nate Silver’s numbers as the standard by which to judge this prediction.
- I predict that unless Clinton drops out before the election, the Democratic nominee will either be her or Sanders. This is probably my safest prediction.
To clarify my 1st and 5th predictions, I will predict that the next POTUS will be either Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, or John Kasich.
It will be, rather predictably, Jeb Bush vs. Hilary Clinton. To me, this is about a 70% likely outcome. Maybe even 80%.
Who will win?
It’s about 50/50 right now in that race, but if I were pressed, I would predict Jeb Bush wins. Mainly because we have a Democrat right now and I think it will swing over to a Republican. Then again, I will not be surprised if Clinton wins.
Clinton-O’Malley over Trump-Rubio, with numbers like LBJ-Goldwater.
I predict with 70 percent confidence JEB! will be the Republican nominee, notwithstanding his freefall in the polls. If not JEB! it will be Kasich.
I predict Hillary will be the Democratic nominee.
I predict Hillary will be the next POTUS.
I predict I will be sad when this is all over as I am not in love with Hillary, but will hold my nose and vote for her as no Republican should ever again be allowed to become president of the United States…at least not until their racists, xenophobes, misogynists, homophobes, and religious nutjobs die the Hell off.
No way Trump is the republican nominee. Similarly for Sanders and the democratic party, though I’d go for less “no way” and more “rather unlikely”.
If I had to guess, let’s say either Bush or Kasich vs Clinton. I’d root for Clinton over Bush but Kasich could conceivably persuade me.
I’ve already said there was a 100% chance of Clinton winning unless there was the political equivalent of a meteor strike.
Trump is that meteor strike for the Republicans. He’s not going to get the nomination, but he’s completely disrupted the normal conglomerations around favored candidates of the party wings.
So why won’t he get the nomination? Because the party establishment has finally realized what’s happening and is gearing up to destroy him. I’m not sure why this is a surprise to anyone. Don’t people normally talk about small groups of money controlling everything in the country? That’s the Establishment. So they’re being attacked. Does anyone really think that the Establishment will fold at the first attack? Be consistent in your paranoia, guys. That’s how I knew Romney would be the candidate six months before the first debate, and that logic still holds good today.
Bush is the logical recipient of the Establishment’s good wishes. After that, everything goes just as Onomatopoeia says, although I see no reason to want to limit Republican losses to just the Presidency. The party is clearly and completely broken.
However, I do predict a close election, as I discussed in this thread. The Republicans will throw everything they can into this race, because if they lose the next real opportunity is 2024 and that’s after the next census when states will redistrict into configurations presumably less gerrymandered than today. Even the Democrats will rebel against their 76-year-old out of touch President and reformulate.
And Trump is not their enemy; he’s* one of them*. One of the money guys. Which makes him harder to control than a relative wage-slave like Bush, true, but it also means he can’t be destroyed with money.
The logic that the money will make sure a money guy is nominated? :dubious:
No, that the Establishment will make sure an Establishment-approved guy is nominated.
Trump is not approved by the Establishment. That he has money is a different issue.
Trump pulls out December or January. Backs Fiorina. (Meh, stranger things have happened.)
Jeb! will be the GOP nominee. Why? Because base republicans like the name Bush. Puts 'em at ease.
Clinton/Sanders is the best ticket for the Democrats. But that never happens.
Clinton/Biden? Nah. I think Biden will just remind fence sitters on the last administration and falter.
Clinton/O’Malley beats Jeb!/Rubio.
The Electoral College cannot vote for a president and vice president from the same state.
On the Democratic side, I think it will be Clinton and someone no one is talking about yet. Why in the world would she, or anyone, want O’Malley?
Hillary Clinton will be the Dem nominee. She’ll win Iowa, lose NH by a sliver, and smoke Bolshevik Bernie elsewhere. I think Trump or Cruz gets the GOP nomination; Bush is too far gone at this point in terms of momentum and appeal (he lacks a constituency).
Hillary Clinton picks Beshear from Kentucky or Castro from Texas as a running mate. Trump picks Rubio as a running mate or Cruz (to show he doesn’t hate Hispanics and please the establishment) She wins this map. and wins the popular vote by 9%, 54%-45% (assuming no Perot or Nader 3rd parties, both of whom cut the ultimate popular vote winners’ national margins in 92, 96, and 00).
Yet. The worse a bet W2! gets to look like, the better a bet Trump will look like and the likelier they’ll be to change their bets. He does speak their language and share their interests, and has shown the ability to get support.
That’s why he’s part of “the Establishment” (ah, it’s good to see the Sixties come back! Power to the people, right on!).
We’ve been through that. If they’re interested in pairing up, welcome to your new home in Tennessee, Mr. Rubio. 
I’m holding out for Clinton/Warner. O’Malley brings nothing to the table and Warner pretty much locks down 13 important electoral votes in Virginia that the Republican nominee will be hard pressed to replace. Plus Warner’s as big a business-type as Trump with a lot more ability to not sound like a moron half the time.
It’s very fluid but I think I’ll go Rubio/Kasich…but don’t hold me too strongly to it.
My map. Clinton 300, Rubio 238. Republicans take Ohio and Florida but it’s not enough to get the job done. Rubio is set up for another shot in the future and Warner becomes the heir apparent to the pro-business Clinton machine.
If Clinton is smart, she’d pick Warren, assuming Warren would even be interested.
That would be the dream ticket for the Dems! Still, I feel two strong and experienced women would get beaten even by a frightening Walker/Perot ticket, 'cause 'Merica.
Non-verifiable prediction – even if he wins, we won’t know he’s the only one who could have.