I think Hillary Clinton ex-Secretary of State and Vice President Joe Biden will duke it out so much in Iowa and on the road that the Republicans will have a good chance of winning the November 2016 elections, but not with any unknown.
Personality seems to be a big choice in elections lately … Governor Christi for example will certainly be in the race, but I don’t see how he could win against the likes of the democratic front runners.
Hillary and Biden might duke it out… for about five minutes, and then Hillary wins every contest in a walk. Obama, an enormously talented politician with an A+ political campaign team, barely beat Hillary. Hillary is much more popular now than she was in 2008, and Biden will not have anywhere near the campaign team (or natural talent) as Obama.
Jeb wouldn’t be the worst candidate the Republicans could put up, but he’s far from the best. Few people have fond memories of a Bush in office.
I think Chris Christie is the obvious frontrunner for the GOP nomination. He has the experience, the intelligence, and the charisma, three things that other Republican candidates are generally short on. He’s just won a blow-out victory in a heavily Democratic state at a time when Republicans aren’t getting much good news. He understands the modern media environment and knows how to produce sound bites that look good on YouTube.
Three possible arguments against him:
He can’t win the Republican primary because his politics are too moderate. They said that about Romney once, and about McCain before that. But regardless of what some liberals say, moderates generally win the Republican presidential nomination. McCain and Romeny both won by a simple process: wait patiently while the crazies commit political suicide and be the last one standing. The same should work for Christie.
He can’t win against the Democrats. A recent poll put him ten point behind Hillary. But many people at this point don’t even know who he is. Polls this far out tell us very little about election results.
He can’t win because he’s so fat and ugly. This would have been a concern 50 years ago. Back then, the best candidates had the same bland good looks as the best TV stars–think JFK. Nowadays that’s no longer true. Many stars in today’s media environment look like freaks, so that shouldn’t harm a political candidate either.
I hope the Republicans go for Rafael Eduardo Cruz or Rick Santorum. If only to settle once and for all this insane idea that the only way for the Republicans to win is to run the most conservative person they possibly can.
Of course, the One True Answer will be that he just wasn’t the right candidate and they need to run someone even more Conservative the next time. :smack:
But I’m just hoping the hate and the derp, on a national stage, will finally break the back of this whole nonsense and turn the American people away from it.
She is? The impression I get was that Hillary embarrassed herself in 2008 by staying the in race far longer than was reasonable, did an unimpressive job as Secretary of State, and tied herself to the Obama administration, whose approval rating is now plummeting. I haven’t seen any polls and for all I know you may be right, but it’s not what I’m seeing.
We’re talking about the Democratic primary, so her approval among Democrats is what I’m talking about. She’s very, very popular among Democratic voters- more so (I believe) than in 2008.
Biden won’t run. He’s too old (older then McCain was when he ran), and he generally seems pretty content to be Obama’s sidekick. When VP’s are planning on running, they find a few issues they can be frontman on.
I like this answer, because its basically: “through my senses of vision and hearing”. That is, its almost a non-answer, but not totally. Because you do rule out having gained information about Hillary by something you tasted or smelled.
She was very popular when she was the Secretary of State. Her popularity lately has come down quite a bit, which could be because of association with Obama, could be because she’s an insider and all Washington is pretty despised right now, or could be for another reason. But she didn’t suffer anything from staying in the race “too long” in 2008, nor from being SoS.
Someone said VP Biden is too old, but he’s not too old to run … you mean to win, uh?
I have noticed President Obama giving him the cold shoulder lately though, especially on the US Congress closing down the government and the votes on ACA going through.
If either Hillary or Biden runs, they’ll win the nomination, but neither will. They’ve both reached the climax of their political careers, and are looking forward to retirement. At the very least, they certainly won’t run against each other. I don’t know who the Democratic nominee will be, though I’m hoping for Brian Schweitzer.
On the Republican side, I’m still betting on Rubio. He’s popular with the Tea Party without being unpopular with the “establishment”, he’s young, and he’s Hispanic without obviously looking the part, which the Republicans will hope will attract the Hispanic vote without turning off the racists in their own base. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s from a swing state like Florida.
In principle, yes: The only requirement on the VP is that he must be eligible to succeed the President, and he’s just as eligible now as he was in 2008 or 2012. In practice, though, it’d be absurd to pick the same VP as one’s predecessor.