And in Arizona:
An interesting overview:
I keep seeing Michigan show up on these lists since Stabenow announced her retirement. But I just don’t see this seat flipping in 2024. Michigan has proven itself to be a more solidly-blue state than 2016 made us believe, and there just aren’t as many quality statewide Republican candidates as there are Democrats. I mean, any one of the top three statewide office holders (Whitmer, Nessel, Benson) could run and win this seat, and there are several quality Democratic members of Congress (Slotkin, Dingell, Kildee). And then there are a few quality Dems not currently holding elected office (Brenda Lawrence, Andy Levin, Pete Buttigieg, Abdul el Sayed, Rob Davidson). And Dems have some good mayors: Mike Duggan (Detroit), Abdullah Hammoud (Dearborn), Rosalyn Bliss (Grand Rapids).
I think the only decent Republican that could win statewide might be Fred Upton, maybe Peter Meijer, but I don’t see either of them making it through a primary. And that’s the thing: our Republican citizens in Michigan keep throwing up nuttier and nuttier candidates, and these nutbirds can’t win statewide. Until the state GOP can get itself under control, this is likely to remain a likely-blue state.
Man that looks rough.
I think they included Florida and Texas just so they could have some Republican held seats. If those are the ‘easiest’ seats for the blue team to flip, the blue team better learn to play defense.
I know it’s early but I’m not so sure I am ready to worry yet.
Rick Scott could be in trouble in Florida given McConnell will almost certainly withhold support and may even recruit a primary challenger. Not sure that will work out for the Dems but I would be happy to see him lose.
Ted Cruz is pretty much hated in Texas. Not sure who will run on the D side but I don’t think he’s untouchable. Unless Beto runs again. That dude needs to STFU and go away.
Manchin is probably toast but we’ve all seen that coming I would think.
I don’t really see PA, MI, NV and WI being that at risk. It will require some hard work but I feel those seats are fairly easy for the Dems to hold.
And I wouldn’t count Tester and Brown out just yet. Both of them have been reelected with decent margins as those states have moved much more red. If the GOP goes hard to the right that may not work too well for them.
Sorry for the double post but I just found this on FiveThirtyEight - Senator Popularity Above Replacement.
It’s from May '22 but I’m fairly sure the approval numbers were pretty accurate for the midterms or at least the Dems listed who were up for election won. The numbers for Manchin, Tester, Brown and Casey all looked strong at that time. I have no idea how that will translate to '24 but it gives me reason to believe the situation is less than hopeless.
Manchin, Tester and Brown were all last elected in a midterm election with a strong Democratic lean. The biggest challenge they’ll have is that next year is a Presidential election and President-Senate ticket splitting is becoming vanishingly rare. In the last two Presidential elections, only one state voted for President and Senator of different parties.
I fully recognize the very valid points you are making in this post @flurb, but I would point you to the link to the FiveThirtyEight article I posted above regarding Senator Popularity Above Replacement. Even though they are from what we consider to be red or GOP leaning states the four Senators I mentioned all have strong net approval ratings versus a generic replacement, at least as of May 2022. Manchin is at +22, Tester at +13, Brown at +8 and Casey +5. As the article says this indicates they all have varying degrees of cross party appeal due to having established a strong state-wide brand.
I understand that doesn’t guarantee anything come 2024 but if you look at how accurate 538 was with those who ran and won in 2022 for the Dems you will see why I find reason to be hopeful about '24. Kelly had a net approval of 4% and won by 4.88%, Hassan was at 10% and won by 9.15% and Bennet was at 16% and won by 14.6%. Yes, Kelly was the only one of the three from a red leaning state but I do find the accuracy of the numbers to give us reason to be hopeful the 4 seats above should be possible to retain.
Warnock is the only one in 2022 who they were somewhat off on with his net approval at 5% and him taking the runoff by only 2.8%. Still, in the end he did win.
I also will concede that a lot of this relies on the GOP putting up weak or crazy candidates. Given recent history there is good reason to think that could well be the case again this time around.
I don’t really disagree with you! I mentioned in the OP that the saving grace Democrats have in WV, MT and OH is that all three states have battle-tested incumbents who know their electorates intimately and have built strong, independent brands with voters back home. But just given how ridiculously out-of-line they are with their states’ partisan lean, they’re probably going to need help – help that Republicans may be all-too-willing to give them by nominating weak candidates.
The other frustrating thing is that there’s basically nowhere for Democrats to play offense. Rick Scott should be terribly vulnerable given he was first elected in a squeaker and made himself the poster boy for eliminating social security and Medicare. But Florida Democrats still seem to be in shell shock over last year’s election and have no statewide officeholders or anyone else with name recognition or a donor base. Texas Democrats are the same, Cruz may not be well liked but Democrats have no one on deck to run against him. Sure, Beto came out of nowhere in 2018, but I just don’t see anyone who can run his playbook (and Cruz isn’t going to be caught flat-footed this time).
But . . . I was also pessimistic about Democrat’s chances in 2022, and we saw how that turned out. I would love to be proved wrong twice in a row!
In what shouldn’t be a surprise, Feinstein just officially announced that she will retire at the end of her term. There’s no way a Republican will get the job but it sets up a very interesting primary.
I was likewise extremely pessimistic about the 2022 midterms.
As to Scott and Cruz, Scott is the most vulnerable to a primary challenge IMHO. I don’t see the Dems picking up the seat but if he wins the primary or a total nutter gets the nomination then maybe.
If the Texas Dems put Wendy Davis against Cruz then I could see them having a chance. Again, maybe. I do feel there are a lot of Texas women fired up about Roe so that could be a rallying issue.
It’s hard to see how Joe Manchin can win another election in WV while remaining a Democrat. He’s as conservative a Democrat as you will find, and he always is speaking to WV voters when he talks about bipartisanship and working across the aisle. But in that state, I just don’t see how he can survive another election with a “D” next to his name. WV is now as red as it gets. He might be able to scrape out a win, but it will have to be against an incredibly bad “R” candidate (like a Herschel Walker type of bad)…
Maybe Don Blankenship will run.
If Wendy Davis is our best hope, God help us all.
There are a couple members of the Congressional Delegation that could be competitive if the stars aligned. I’m particularly thinking of Colin Allred and Lizzie Fletcher, who knocked off Republican incumbents in suburban seats in 2018. But Republicans made both their districts much more Democratic in redistricting, so they’d be giving up safe Congressional seats for a long-shot Senate bid.
Well then more power to Allred and/or Fletcher. I don’t think beating Cruz in 2024 is impossible.
Senator Jon Tester announced today that he’ll run for a fourth term in Montana. That’s an enormous relief for Democrats — while it’ll still be an enormous lift to hold the seat in a Presidential election year, Tester gives them their best shot at it.
Boy, howdy, this was almost the best news I got all day! Heaved a huge sigh of relief. I got an email about an hour ago.
Tester is a good 'un, for sure. If anyone can stay put, it’s him.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer was in Cleveland for a fundraiser for Sen. Sherrod Brown on Saturday, and I had the chance to go. It’s going to be tough for Brown to hang onto his seat, but I like him a lot and am hopeful he can do it.
And in the Bay State:
Ro Khanna has announced that she will not be running for Feinstein’s seat, and has endorsed Oakland/Berkeley-area Representative Barbara Lee, who has announced that she is running for it.
Remember that in California, Senate races are open primaries where all candidates of all parties run together (California’s Secretary of State has already announced the primary will be on March 5, which I assume is Super Tuesday), and the top two have a runoff in November, even if one of them got a majority of the primary vote. For some reason, California’s Republicans tend to avoid Senate races (the party has no problem with candidates running for Governor, even though the eventual result is just as much a foregone conclusion), so I would expect a repeat of 2020, when two Democrats make it to the runoff.
He 
. His polling was pretty weak and Barbara Lee is running a distant third so far, so it’s not likely a major shake-up. But it’s early yet, so we’ll see.
The Republicans do technically have the numbers in the state to get a semi-competitive candidate into the final two. If they can unite behind a moderate candidate, which is a mighty big IF. But if I had a spare nickel I might be inclined to bet that it will be Schiff vs Porter, with no Republican making it into the final contest.