Well, the US Presidential election is only 11 months away.
That, most likely, will produce hundreds of debates.
However, on election day, there will also be around 33 Senate races and a dozen gubinatorial races going on in virtually every state in the Union.
I’m willing to discuss every race that’s upcoming.
So, who wants to begin?
OK, I’ll bite (The Soviet of Washington).
In general, this should be a much more balanced campaign season than any in the last 15-20 years. The Republicans have a recent history of selecting candidates that please the extreme right wing of the party, which frees the Democrats to run for the middle. (Examples: Ellen Craswell, a self-proclaimed religious “True Believer” for Governor in 1992, and John Carlson, a conservative talk-show host with no experience in elective office, for Governor in 1996. Both trounced handily by Gary Locke.) This time around, Republican Party Chairman Chris Vance has pre-anointed Senate and Gubernatorial candidates that were selected specifically to be more appealing to the middle—though said anointing has ruffled more than a few feathers.
Governor
Locke declined to run this time around (probably a wise decision), which leads to a three-way contest among Christine Gregoire (Attorney General and a major player in the Big Tobacco settlement), Ron Sims (King County Executive), and Phil Talmadge (ex-Supreme Court justice) for the Democratic nomination. The Republican will be Dino Rossi, whose main claim to fame is brokering a no-tax-increase budget in the Senate.
Prediction: This won’t take form for a while, but my guess at this point is that Gregoire will take the nomination. She can probably take the general election as well—though she engenders the same sort of “love her / hate her” reactions as Hillary Clinton—but I have a feeling that it will be close.
Senate
Patty Murray is a prime target of the GOP, and they think they have ammo in remarks which (taken out of context) seem to imply that she considers Osama bin Laden to be a great humanitarian. But George Nethercutt has similar baggage in remarks that (taken out of context) seem to imply that American soldiers’ lives just don’t count. In addition, he was originally elected to the House in '94 in part because of a two-term-limit pledge, which he broke in '98. One final drawback is that there hasn’t been a Senator from the eastern side of the Cascades since God was in kindergarten.
Prediction: The only thing sure about this race is that it’ll be dirty. Murray originally ran as “a Mom in Tennis Shoes,” but she’s surprised a lot of people—including more than a few Republicans—by becoming a skilled political player. When the mud settles, I think she’ll hang on; but the race will draw resources that I’m sure the Democrats would rather spend elsewhere.
I’d just like to remind my fellow Democrats and assorted lefties that we can’t be so focused on getting rid of Koko that we neglect the fact that he can also be stopped via Congress. So these races should be included in our efforts.
Just a public service anouncement.
I think we Dems have a decent chance at capturing the White House, but I think we’re gonna get stomped in the Senate.
I’ll miss Fritz Hollings. All the really interesting folks are pretty much gone from Congress, and he was one of the few remaining.
Looks like a Senate seat will flip to the Republicans in Georgia. Democrat Zell Miller is retiring, and the Democratic Party hasn’t been able to talk any serious candidates into running for the office. Republican Johnny Isaacson looks like the most likely successor.
On the other hand, the way Zell Miller has voted since taking office, I’m not sure having an actual Republican in the seat will make much difference.
West Virginia:
Governor Wise (D), having been caught with his pants down and spending taxpayer money on his mistress, has announced he will not run in 2004. Having been a thoroughly useless Governor in general, this means that whoever the Republicans run will win, despite WV being in a Democratic chokehold for 70 years or so (although we did have a Republican governor before Wise).
Senator Byrd (D) will be re-elected again, because he is never going away and will probably be elected even after he’s dead and buried. I’ve heard a bit here and there about some Republican guy who is itching to take down Senator Rockefeller (D) in 2004. As much as I’d love to see this happen, it won’t, barring a miracle. Rockefeller sucks and all, but he’s got sooooo much money. I don’t think anyone in this state could raise enough to beat him.
Isn’t it kind of ironic that Governor Quinn can’t spell “gubernatorial”?
New York
The Senate
We’ve just got a Senate race going on statewide here. Chuck Schumer is up for a second term, and it’s none too likely that the Republicans will take him down. I don’t know of any Republicans who are even thinking about it, apart from a businessman named Michael Benjamin, who has never held office and has nowhere near the amount of cash or charisma to mount a successful campaign against a popular incumbent Democrat in this heavily Democratic state.
For 2006, there’s talk that Governor Pataki might take on Hillary Clinton in the Senate, and there’s talk of him as a 2008 presidential candidate. It’ll be one or the other. Look for Eliot Spitzer to take the New York governor’s spot in 2006—unless he winds up on someone’s vice presidential ticket, like some predict (though I doubt he will.)
South Dakota
Senator
This is a fascinating one. It’s not so fascinating that Tom Daschle is likely to win reëlection in 2004, considering that Republican Representative Bill Janklow has just been found guilty of second-degree murder after his reckless driving incident. Janklow is a popular figure in South Dakota politics, and could very well have taken Daschle down—or at least given him a run for his money. This is good news for the Democrats, who’d rather spend money somewhere else.
With Daschle out of the picture and retiring the House on January 20 (his sentencing date,) some think that John Thune should run against Daschle. Thune was South Dakota’s at-large representative until 2002, when he stepped down to run (unsuccessfully) against Democratic Senator Tim Johnson. Thune, though popular, doesn’t seem to think he can successfully take on Daschle. I’m betting that Thune decides to run for…
The House
South Dakota’s House seat is going to be vacated when Representative Bill Janklow steps down on January 20. After that, South Dakota won’t have representation in the House until its special election takes place on June 1, the same day as the state’s presidential primary. While we’ll probably have a good idea who’s going to be the Democratic presidential nominee by then, we’ll finally learn who gets to finish the last six months of Janklow’s term. Whoever wins this special election will have to defend the seat again in the general election in November 2004.
The most likely Democratic candidate is Stephanie Herseth, granddaughter of South Dakota Governor Ralph Herseth. She looks like the favorite right now. She’ll probably find herself pitted against John Thune. Chances are pretty good for Herseth, I’m betting. The Janklow incident has really hurt Republicans in this heavily Republican state.
And here’s something I wrote a while ago about Pennsylvania’s senatorial contest. I’ve got an opinion about most of 'em, but I’d say South Dakota and Pennsylvania are two of the more interesting ones. (I only wrote about New York because I live there.)
I think that Republicans are going to make significant gains in Congress regardless of what happens in the White House race, although if Bush heads into the election with 60%+ approval ratings for whatever reason it could be a Democratic disaster on all fronts.
In the Senate, they are primed to grab a few southern seats. I live down here in Florida, where the Democrats will be putting up either Alex Penelas, Betty Castor, or Peter Deutsch up against Larry Klayman, Bob Smith(yes, THAT Bob Smith), Daniel Webster, and or Johnnie Byrd.
That one is way up in the air, but Florida has turned increasingly Republican in recent years so I think they’ll get that one, especially if they are riding Bush’s coattails should he be popular at that time.
My prediction is 55-44-1 Republicans in the Senate, House 235-200 Republicans.
It is, it is.
Commenting on the previous comments:
Snoopyfan, neither of West Virginia’s Senate seats will be contested in 2004.
adaher, you forgot that Mel Martinez, the HUD secretary, will be running for the Gop nomination for Senate, and, against the bunch that are running, probably will win the nomination.
Now, commenting on my home state…
Barbara Boxer is running for a third term. She has never been really popular among the state electorate, but she keeps winning for the same reason that Alan Cranston kept winning: bad Republican candidates. This year should be no different. The Republican primary should deteriorate into a two-way fight between former Secretary of State Bill Jones and former U.S. Tresurer Rosario Marin.
(BTW, if you are interested in candidates and campaigns, I’ve found www.politics1.com a useful site.)
breaking news, John Thune has decided not to run for South Dakota rep. Making it more likely he will run for Senate, or not run at all (sticking my neck out on that one, I know 
).
Well, I’ll be darned. Looks like Thune might be running for the Senate again, after all. I get the feeling that he will. I’m still thinking that Herseth is favored for the House seat, and Daschle will be tough to beat. If Thune does go for the Senate seat, you can bet that the White House will pay more attention to the race than it would if any other candidate got the nod. This race still favors Daschle, though.
Indiana
Governor
I’m very interested in this. Current incumbent Joe Kernan (D) has been in office for 3 months following Gov. O’Bannon’s sudden death. He’ll have 1 year of experience under his belt, along with his record as Lt. Gov. He’s battled tooth and nail with a stubborn state senate regarding the budget, will face a heap of backlash from the Gary/Lake Co. area for actually imposing property taxes for the first time in history, and faces a state deficit as large as the California deficit in terms of percentage.
Mitch Daniels ® is in very much a win/win situation regarding the economy. If it rebounds, he claims credit as former OMB budget director for the White House. If it continues to tank, he gets to blame it on the current Indiana administration.
Personal thoughts (Kernan): I love Kernan. He’s extremely good friends with a former boss of mine, he gave my college commencement address, and he’s incredibly personable. He’s a war veteran and a former POW. His personal story is amazing, and he comes across very much like Kennedy/Clinton/Bush Jr. on a personal level.
Personal thoughts (Daniels): I think Daniels is a jackass. Nicknamed “The Blade” by President Bush, he’s a very sharp personality. I’ve been extremely unimpressed with anything I’ve heard from him, and those around him are the very epitome of “lackey”.
Indiana is a vastly screwed up state. We haven’t voted for a Democratic president since the 50s (or early 60s - sorry), but we’ve had a long string of Democratic governors. Anything other than a presidential election is very much a 50/50 proposal, and grassroots campaigning has played enormous roles. Daniels has visited each county twice in the last year, and is starting Lap 3. Both runningmates have not been announced.
I’m thinking the Republicans have an “edge” in picking up almost all the open Southern Senate seats; ie FL, GA, LA, NC, SC. This is especially true since the Democrats will nominate Dean at the top of the ticket. I think he would be less likely than Gore, for example, to drive a really high black turnout.
I’m not sure about the Arkansas race. Last time I think Blanche Lincoln beat a weak Republican opponent, but I don’t know much about Lincoln’s popularity, etc. And whether or not the Republicans can get a decent opponent this time for her. Is Huckabee running?
PA I would think would be close, but if Bush can win the state by 5-6% I would think even the Republican challenger to Specter (forgot his name) could win. Are the Democrats nominating anyone who can challenge? Last election I think Bush lost PA by 5 or 6 after being even obviously nationwide. So if Bush wins by 10% (I’m assuming this in all my “analysis” FWIW), then PA would probably have the same 10 point swing.
I don’t know much about in general, about the opponents in the races. I think the Wisconsin race with Feingold was close last time. So that obviously could be a pickup with a good challenger. Don’t know if the Republicans have one.
SD, would be a great target. Daschle has huge negatives there. He didn’t get the ethanol thing passed, as I recall, also. Plus there is no more of “elect Daschle he’s the senate leader”. He’s a minority leader and probably will be one even if re-elected, unless Hillary wants his job. Thune is seen as having been “robbed” last election.
ND Byron Dorgan won last time handily (as did Daschle) but I thought I remember reading that his challenger was weak last time. Could this be a potential pickup for Republicans? Again, I have no idea who the Republicans would nominate.
In NV that should be an easy pickup for Republicans. Reid seems more hysterical by the day and won his last two elections by razor thin margins. One of those was to Ensign, however, who is now the other senator from NV. So obviously the Republicans need a good challenger. Don’t know if they have one.
WA should be a good tight race, I would think if the Republicans, again can get a challenger. Murray is not the nice “Mom in tennis shoes”, she’s more of a liberal activist. I would think this could hurt her. I heard last opponent against her was weak. Nethercutt should be very tough. Contrary to the above poster, I think her comments about OBL revealed her empty-headedness/blame America first nature. OBL built day care centers? Really? Women who want to work in Afghanistan would probably have been beaten to death…I don’t think there was a need for “day care centers”. Nethercutt’s comments were simply cut off at the end to make him look callous. Anyway, interesting race.
In CA, I would think it could be a potential Republican pick up as Boxer ran 10 points or so behind Clinton last election. She isn’t very popular overall, but again, the Republicans have to nominate someone who can appeal to CA, and that probably won’t happen.
IL, I don’t know much about. Fitzgerald is retiring, obviously, but he wasn’t popular anyway. Republicans in IL are said to be in “disarray”. IL is supposedly trending Democrat, but I don’t know if that is still true.
AK I have heard is a possible Democrat pickup, but I don’t know why. It’s a Republican state, why would they vote Democrat? I think the current Republican senator up for re-election is the gov’s daughter or something? Will she possibly not run again?
Anyway, from my limited knowledge of races I would categorize them as follows:
Again, I’m assuming Dems. nominate Dean (very unpopular in the South and probably a little weaker with blacks than some other Dems.) and Bush wins by 10-12% nationwide.
Probable Republican Wins and pickups:
GA
FL
NC
SC
50/50 races:
WA
LA
SD
PA (if Specter not nominated)
Possible Republican Pick-Ups with good challenger:
CA
NV
WI
ND
AR
Possible Democrat Pickups:
IL
AK (from what other’s have said)
So overall the Republicans can pick up 4 from the probable, net of one from the 50/50 column, two from the “if decent challenger column” then that is 7 seats. Then they’d probably lose at least one from IL /AK giving them 5 or 6 in the net gain amount.
So overall, they’d go from 51 to 56/57 seats.
Not sure if that is enough to end the filibusters…how many Democrats would/do vote to end them? Nelson in NE I think is one. Nelson in Fl has voted to end some, I think. Don’t know of any others (other than Breaux, who is retiring, obviously).
Any comments, flames?
I’m sure the White House is putting a lot of pressure on Thune to run. He lost to Johnson by only 524 votes (amid claims of absentee ballot irregularities) and one of Johnson’s main pitches was that the Dems controlled the Senate so it made sense for South Dakota to send another Dem to Washington, particularly since Daschle was majority leader. When Thune ran for the House the last time, he won something like 70% of the vote (I don’t know anything about his opponent).
A Thune/Daschle race would be a bruising campaign and would force Daschle to spend time in S.D. rather than elsewhere trying to help other Democrats. Daschle has raised something like 3 million but I suspect Thune would not have a big problem playing catch up since rank-and-file Republicans across the country would love to see Daschle sent packing. That would be a very big loss for the Dems, not just because they’d lose a body in the Senate but they’d lose a very experienced, very savvy parliamentarian.
If Thune runs, I think that race is too close to call.
Also, I agree with bri1600bv that the Republicans are have the edge in all the Southern races (except Louisiana–I think that will stay Dem).
Of course, I meant to say the Republicans HAVE the edge…
[Preview, dammit, preview!]
bri1600bv, I don’t take issue with any of that speculation, but it does ignore the possibility of further party-switching by existing officeholders. That isn’t only one way, with Southern (and a few Western) Democrats going Pub, but can include Northern GOP moderates going the other way. Chafee, Snowe, and Collins must already be feeling some encouragement to come in from the cold, and it’s a good bet that Jeffords will have a D next to his name in his next campaign.
With the five open Southern states, the Reps will almost certainly win in Georgia (no serious Dem has filed) and North Carolina (traditioanlly alternates Senators of different parties). South Carolina depends on who wins the primary, and how bloody the race gets. Florida is wide-open, so I’ll make no predictions, and, so far, only Vitter has jumped into the Senate race.
The one thing that might change the race in Georgia would be if Max Cleland were to file. I have no reason to believe he will do so, but he does seem to be maintaining a high profile lately (with several news articles about him in the local papers). Of course, that might also mean he is fishing for a VP interview. (Forget it, Max.)
I’ve never thought Cleland was an especially strong Senator, but he does have enough popularity here that (were he to run) he might be able to beat Johnny Isaakson, the likely Republican nominee.