From http://www.electoral-vote.com/oct/oct03.html:
What do you think? Will this election produce a Democratic-controlled Senate? And what will that mean for whoever is in the White House then?
Yeah, a last-minute surge for the challenger, a typical pattern, might well involve some coattail effect. Bush isn’t the only GOP candidate that undecideds might well be looking for a reason to vote against; their leadership’s conduct in Congress has been a cause for anger as well. I certainly could see a late surge of a “Fuck Bush and all the rest of 'em too” attitude putting this over the top.
Anybody know of other poll compilation sites that address Congress too?
Those poll numbers really are interesting. If they hold, it could make quite a difference in federal policy whoever wins the presidency.
If Bush, the Senate democrats would probably hold together better than in the past, effectively blocking much of Bush’s agenda. And if Kerry wins, he would at least have the Rebuulican controlled house as a scapegoat.
Well, to answer the question posed, I certainly hope so.
However, it bothers me to no end that there exist 17% of the populace of Illinois who have expressed support for Alan Keyes. I mean, really! Alan Keyes?
Well, just think of that as a good indication of the percentage of the population (in Illinois, anyway) who would never vote for a Democrat under any circumstances – and be grateful the figure isn’t higher.
BrainGlutton: Done and done.
But it still creeps me out. After all, this isn’t Tom DeLay we’re talking about, it’s Alan-freakin’-Keyes.
Confirms what I’ve said elsewhere- that the South isn’t as Republican as some folks might think (and others might wish).
North Carolina, Louisiana and Florida are always up for grabs. South Carolina, hard hit by textile mill closings, may be wavering in its Republicanism. Georgia has several popular Democrats in statewide office, and it looks like its state House of Representatives will remain Democratic.
And I will renew my prediction made earlier in this thread that Georgia will be closer than the polls are showing, owing to the presence on the ballot of a black candidate for Senate (Denise Majette). (A first for Georgia.)
The Atlanta paper has noted a surprising surge in voter registration in Georgia this year, including a particularly strong surge among black voters (presumably the result of Ms. Majette’s agressive grass-roots campaign). Given Georgia’s history of low voter turnout, it wouldn’t take too many motivated voters to change the state’s political complexion.
Incidentally, Inez Tenenbaum has been making hay of her Republican opponent in South Carolina by attacking his support of proposals to replace the income tax with a federal sales tax. She has shown the proposal for what it is - a boon to the wealthy at the expense of the middle class. Republicans are absolutely panicked by her success.
Although I’m rooting for her, I’ll eat my hat if Tenenbaum wins. (With high hopes, I’m getting my mustard ready, just in case.)
I figure the chances of the Dems winning the Senate are about 35 to 40 percent. No matter how well Kerry may do, we’re losing the South, and there’s a heck of a lot of open Dem seats down there this year.
The Reps may have to hold at least 52 seats to continue shutting out the Dems. There may be at least one defector:
Don’t rule out Snowe and Collins following not much later. They’re both supported warmly enough in Maine that they wouldn’t face any real backlash if they do switch.
The short answer for the question posed in the OP: No.
Obama is a lock in Illinois. The rest of the percentages are within or very close to the margin of error. Most voters are not politically sophisticated enough to grasp the national importance of local races. If they were, people like John Thune in South Dakota would benefit from national campaign contributions and other aid from individuals.
I think the White House, Senate and House will be in Republican hands come November 3rd. And I think a Bush loss is more likely than the Senate switching majority parties. The House isn’t even on the table for Democrats.
If anything, I believe the polls are erring on the side of the Republicans in the South. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports again today a surge in black voter registration not just in Georgia but across the South, and suggests (as I have suspected for a while) that the sampling models used by pollsters may not be taking into account a possible surge in black voters.
That’s a very measured “might well,” Elvis1Lives, and a good thing too, since your crystal ball apparently broke on this question two years ago, as you may recall:
From this thread, which I expect to be linking to again in about a month…
In any event, I don’t think the Senate is in serious danger of changing chands.
- Rick
I got 2 out of 3 right:
Pay up.
Not so much an issue of how many D’s and R’s add up to 50 or 51. It is the burgeoning sense that the era of the extremist R’s is closing. I speak, as most of you know, from the conservative wing of the extreme left, and I don’t want a lock. I want a sensible rightwing to keep a check on some of the loonier ideas that come burbling out from my allies and friends. “Well, sure, I’d love to extend citizenship to gay whales, but the Pubbies won’t let us, mmmmm, nasty break…”
Rulership and governance should proceed from a sensible center, and that is a fight worth making. If there is a slight R edge in the Senate, fine, so long as they are people we can negotiate with and come to a reasonable position. A fired-up, committed, and motivated center-left is a recipe for returning sanity to the nation, and not a moment too soon.
From the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, here’s a column on the dubious science (alchemy) of polling.
These are the people that voted for Clinton. Edwards could have gotten them again. As I’ve said many times on this board, the Democrats cannot elect a President unless he is a southern moderate.
Even given the polls? The polls that you are always throwing about as evidence that Bush will be relected easily? Well, at least that you throw about when Bush is leading in them.
Not even if he has a Southern moderate as his running mate? And the incumbent’s running mate has a the charisma of a rotting dog carcass?
Here’s my somewhat informed opinion of how things will break down in the open/competitive races:
Illinois – Obama (D) wins (pick-up)
Alaska – Knowles (D) wins (pick-up)
Colorado – Salazar (D) wins (pick-up)
South Dakota – Daschle (D) wins (same)
North Carolina – Bowles (D) wins (same)
South Carolina – DeMint ® wins (pick-up)
Georgia – Isakson ® wins (pick-up)
Washington – Murray (D) wins (same)
Pennsylvania – Specter ® wins (same)
Oklahoma – Carson (D) wins (pick-up)
Florida – Castor (D) wins (same)
So, that’s 4 Democratic pick-ups and only 2 for the Republicans. So, the net change is 2 seats, in favor of the Democrats, which (when you toss in Jeffords) in turn would give them control of the Senate. Of course, a lot could change in some of the races listed above, particularly Alaska, Colorado, South Dakota, Oklahoma and Florida.