Will the Democrats win control of the Senate in November?

[Shodan]

Now there is a thread I can read with interest - thanks, Bricker.

Some highlights (all from here.

@minty green

Once again, I repeat: there will be–nay, can be–no invasion of Iraq.

@Left Hand of Dorkness

Kerry – hasn’t he lost the nomination like three or four times already? I admire him for being a trooper, but I don’t see him as a serious candidate.

@pjen

2003 headlines

Stock Market continuing all time lows

Recession in the world economy and probably the US economy

@KellyM

I think Bush needs to worry more about losing control of the House of Representatives in 2002, which (if it happens) will almost certainly lead to his impeachment long before he has to worry about reelection.

@elucidator

Here’s my bet. Cheney is toast. He will be designated the Big Enchilada and over the side he goes!

@Stoid

(Gore running in 2004 is) something I WILL bet on. It’s a sure thing.

“When you wish upon a star,
Makes no difference who you are…”

Regards,
Shodan

[Bricker]

@This Year's Model

Even given the polls? The polls that you are always throwing about as evidence that Bush will be relected easily? Well, at least that you throw about when Bush is leading in them.

Right now, the presidential polls are tied, with Bush still having the edge in the EC. And even if there emerges no clear winner from the Electoral College, the election goes to the House, where Bush still emerges the winner.

I don’t think Bush will be re-elected “easily” - just that he’ll be re-elected.

The Senate polls seem scattered, with most analysts predicting that the GOP will retain control of both houses.

So - yes, even given the polls.

• Rick

[Left_Hand_of_Dorkness]

@Shodan

Now there is a thread I can read with interest - thanks, Bricker.

Wanna see what a reasonable person does when they were wrong, Shodan?

I was wrong. Kerry IS a serious candidate.

I’m coming along in my lessons; one day, perhaps, I’ll be as nonpartisan as you :).

Daniel

[Jonathan_Chance]

I’m still watching you, buddy. I predicted all along that this would be a squeaker.

[Left_Hand_of_Dorkness]

I’ll also note, Shodan, that there were some pretty inaccurate conservative predictions in that thread, too. Wonder why you didn’t quote them, o model of fairness, o bastion of balance?

Daniel

[jayjay]

@Left Hand of Dorkness

I was wrong. Kerry IS a serious candidate.

The President’s campaign has a word for that.

[Left_Hand_of_Dorkness]

@jayjay

The President’s campaign has a word for that.

That’s cool, because I have a word for the president’s campaign.

Daniel

[jayjay]

@Left Hand of Dorkness

That’s cool, because I have a word for the president’s campaign.

Daniel

See, this is what happens when I try to be funny…

[Left_Hand_of_Dorkness]

@jayjay

See, this is what happens when I try to be funny…

I got it; I was just being snarky back

Daniel

[Fear_Itself]

@Bricker

I don’t think Bush will be re-elected “easily” - just that he’ll be re-elected.

There is always the unexpected wrench in the works to spoil your prediction, Bricker:

Americans are signing up to vote in record numbers: report

Americans are registering to vote in record numbers ahead of the November 2 election, a report said.

[snip]

“Everything we’re seeing is that there has been a tremendous increase in voter registration,” Kay Maxwell of the League of Women Voters told the Times.

“In the past, we’ve been enthused about what appeared to be a large number of new voters, but this does seem to be at an entirely different level.”

Election officials around the country are hiring temporary workers, adding equipment and working around the clock to process a flood of registration cards, the report said.

Said an election official in the midwestern city of St. Louis, Missouri: “We are moving toward having the largest number of registered voters in the history of St. Louis County.”

In Tallahassee, Florida, epicenter of the 2000 vote recount, the number of registrations is up 20 percent since the presidential primary in March.

In Cleveland, Ohio, a wave of 230,000 new registrations is more than double the number recorded ahead of the last presidential election.

The rate of new registrations is triple what it was in 2000 in the southwestern city of Las Vegas.

**Election officials say nonpartisan community groups and Democratic activist groups are mostly behind the registration push, and that huge gains are being made in low-income and minority areas. The pace is slower in rural areas and non-swing states. **

Most polls base “likely voter” projections on the 2000 election voting patterns; an unexpected increase in Democratic strongholds can tip the election far away from the conventional wisdom. Barring any vote supression shanannigans by the Bush campaign, of course.

[BrainGlutton]

@Fear Itself

Barring any vote supression shanannigans by the Bush campaign, of course.

Indeed. See this thread: [ur]http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=278130. Just today (10/4/04), the St. Petersburg Times reported (excerpt and link in post #144) that “undervotes” (voters who went to the polls, but whose votes, for some reason, did not show up in vote tally) in the new touchscreen machines used in the August 31 primary in Florida ranged from 9% to 17.5% of total voters-at-the-polls.

[Atticus_Finch]

From the OP:

Louisiana-------------------“John” (47%)----------------------David Vitter (44%)

“John”? What does this mean?

[BrainGlutton]

Sorry, that’s http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=278130.

[Frank]

@Atticus Finch

From the OP:

“John”? What does this mean?

Louisiana’s election are technically non-partisan. He has added the Democrats together. If no candidate wins 50%, there is a run-off, which presumably would be one Democrat vs. one Republican.

[Frank]

@Bricker

I don’t think Bush will be re-elected “easily” - just that he’ll be re-elected.

That’s true, you’ve never said “easily.” As to the rest, well, at least you’ve never said “consistent” either.

[Evil_One]

I stated earlier that the Democrats cannot win the White House unless they run a southern moderate. BrainGlutton asks:

@BrainGlutton

Not even if he has a Southern moderate as his running mate? And the incumbent’s running mate has a the charisma of a rotting dog carcass?

Not even, BG. As I have stated before in other threads, I think that classic liberalism is dying as a political philosophy in the United States for a number of reasons. The majority of Governerships, the Senate, the House and the White House are all Republican. Any Democratic attempt to change this must embrace the middle, not the left.

The folks on the left are now asking “Why is the race so tight if liberalism is dying, Mister Smarty Pants”?

The answer is because we have a two party system and people who are left-center will choose the Democrat, whoever he or she is. If we had a Parlimentary system, the hard left and the hard right would be very minor parties.

[BrainGlutton]

@Evil One

If we had a Parlimentary system, the hard left and the hard right would be very minor parties.

Nitpick: A parliamentary system is one where the executive is chosen by and accountable to the legislature (as in Britain), as opposed to a separation-of-powers system where the executive is separately elected by the poeple (as in the U.S.) Which system a country uses has absolutely nothing to do with how political ideologies are expressed through the system of political parties. I think you might have meant to say, “a proportional-representation system” (as in most non-English-speaking democracies, plus South Africa and New Zealand).

[Bricker]

@This Year's Model

That’s true, you’ve never said “easily.” As to the rest, well, at least you’ve never said “consistent” either.

Hmm.

So do I take it that your position is that because of the polls you’ve cited, the Democrats are on track to re-take control of the Senate?

Care to place a wager?

[Evil_One]

@BrainGlutton

I think you might have meant to say, “a proportional-representation system” (as in most non-English-speaking democracies, plus South Africa and New Zealand).

Correct. I was actually thinking of Israel when I was making the reference. So what do you think of my point? Do you agree with it?

[Frank]

@Bricker

So do I take it that your position is that because of the polls you’ve cited, the Democrats are on track to re-take control of the Senate?

The polls are far too volatile to say either party is on track. I think it’s wide open, and I think the Dems have a good chance.

Care to place a wager?

Yeah, I could put a reasonable amount of money where my mouth is.