Thanks, Tester. I wouldn’t discount Sherrod Brown in Ohio- the state may be reddening but if you add enough orange it could turn purplish enough to rescue Brown. Between draconian abortion laws and the specter or the orange menace, it could be a blue wave year.
Thanks, Warren. I like her a lot and she’s got great ideas, but people don’t want ideas. They want someone who can win and I don’t think she can win the presidency.
My hopes for keeping the Senate are pretty high for what looks like a real crappy Senate map in 2024. I don’t see any vulnerable Republican seats so we need to keep guys like Tester around.
The one I worry about is AZ, where Sinema pre-emptively avoided a primary loss by dropping out of the party. Will she siphon off enough D votes to throw the seat to Republicans?
Senator Steve Daines (head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee this cycle) gave an interview this weekend basically saying that if Republicans whiff again this election, they’ll likely be shut out of power in the Senate for a decade. The not-so-subtle message to the base being, “don’t nominate unelectable whack jobs if you ever want to see conservative judges appointed again.” Will they listen? Remains to be seen.
The question may become, would somebody who isn’t an “unelectable whack job” necessarily vote to confirm a conservative judge? Unfortunately, any “litmus test” probably went out the window when at least one justice who testified that they considered Roe as “settled law” then voted to reconsider it.
Democratic Wisconsin Senator Tammy Baldwin announcing today that she will run for reelection. This is obviously good news for Democrats – even after the comfortable margin in the state Supreme Court race, Wisconsin remains a closely politically divided state.
West Virginia Governor Jim Justice has registered to run against Joe Manchin for the WV Senate seat. He’ll have primary opposition — Republican Rep Alex Mooney has declared — but Justice is one of the most popular governors in the country and has a net worth of $450 million or so. He will be heavily, heavily by favored in a Presidential election year.
I’d be surprised if Manchin runs for reelection now. He won his last race by 3 points in the blue wave 2018 midterm election against a lackluster opponent. Trump won WV by 40 points in 2020 and whoever the Republican candidate is next year will likely do the same. Trying to outpace that while your half-a-billionaire opponent drops millions of dollars in negative advertising on you can’t be fun. This seat is likely gone.
Michael Steele could maybe win as a Republican in Maryland. He might be the sane Republican everyone keeps talking about and he’s a former Lieutenant Governor of the state.
Some good news in Texas: US Rep Colin Allred is planning to announce for U.S. Senate against Ted Cruz. Yes, Texas is still a red state. But Allred has the resume that can make him competitive – former NFL player, government experience in the Obama Administration, and he won his seat by knocking off an incumbent Republican in the traditionally-GOP Dallas suburbs.
It’ll still be an uphill climb – especially in a Presidential election year. But the only way Texas Democrats are going to break through is by promoting promising talents like Allred instead of the geriatric, accommodationists Democrats broken by decades of GOP one-party rule who dominate the state party.
Yeah, I’m a big fan of Allred, if only because he got into office by knocking off Pete Sessions. He’s got a good biography and politically he’s right where a Democrat should be to be successful statewide – moderate in his positions but not trying to hide the fact that he’s a Democrat. And he doesn’t come across as loopy as Beto could at times.
Still, it shouldn’t be underestimated how much of an uphill climb he faces. Texas is as “purple” as it’s been in decades, but that’s still at best a deeply red shade of purple. Republicans in the Legislature are busy right now passing bills to game the system, including a law that would allow our (Republican-appointed) Secretary of State to seize control of election administration from counties (a bill clearly aimed at Harris County i.e. Houston). Also, Cruz won’t be as distracted and caught with his pants down as he was last time.
I’m greatly hoping that Allred can beat the odds and will be doing what I can to make it happen!
Democratic Delaware Senator Tom Carper announcing that he will not seek reelection next year after four terms in the Senate. Of note, Carper is the only remaining Vietnam veteran serving in the Senate. While Delaware used to be willing to elect moderate Republicans like William Roth (of the Roth IRA), those days are long gone.