It’s interesting that Jordan would rule out a Senate run so quickly. You’d think he’d keep his name in the mix if only so he could fundraises off it and raise his own profile. My guess is that he’s convinced (probably correctly) that Republicans will take back the House next year and he plans to shiv Kevin McCarthy and make a play for Speaker. So he’s making clear early that he’s sticking with the House.
Not an unreasonable theory.
I’m also not convinced he could win statewide - Ohio Republicans tend to run (if not govern) as centrists, and his hard-right credentials are pretty freakin’ well-established. It wouldn’t surprise me if he has private polling to show that he could win a GOP primary but not a general election statewide. He’s radioactive among Dems and probably many independents.
PA Lt. Gov. and seemingly awesome human being John Fetterman has filed to run for US Senate. Can’t wait to see him campaign.
Fetterman won his first race for mayor by 1 vote.
Thank you. I did not know that.
Slight nitpick, he won the mayoral Democratic primary in the tiny town of Braddock by one vote, 149-148. There was no Republican candidate for the office. I don’t know what that result says in any meaningful way.
I suggest that he has substantially raised his profile since 2005. He is popular among national Dems (not sure about state) and that is a winnable seat for the good guys.
He also has an awesome wife:
even in small towns it’s rare to win by 1 vote. There was a small town where nobody showed up to vote, not even the candidates. They had to hold another election. I think it was in Texas.
Big Jawn is an unabashed liberal and an awesome Twitter follow.
Richard Shelby becomes the fourth Republican Senator to announce his retirement. Shelby’s no moderate, but as an appropriator he did exhibit a certain pragmatism in being willing to work with Democrats.
It’s Alabama, so he’s almost certain to be replaced by someone worse. And right on cue, Mo Brooks has announced he’s interested in the seat.
Warning to anyone inclined to click on that: it’s CNN, so it feels entitled to auto-play video with sound. And it’s Chris Cillizza, so it feels entitled to be mind-numbingly stupid.
Lindsey Graham was on Fox News this morning saying that, “The biggest winner I think of this whole impeachment trial is Lara Trump.” Apparently on the theory that Burr (who’s retiring) voting to convict will make the North Carolina GOP so gosh-darned mad that they’ll nominate her . . . to spite him?
I don’t see where Burr’s vote really helps or hurts her. North Carolina is already full to the brim of Trumpy Republicans who are falling all over themselves to denounce Burr. But I also don’t underestimate her chances of getting the nomination, particularly if DJT is out on the stump for her. Of course, he would immediately make it an election about him, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing in a Republican primary.
What does Donald have over Lindsey Graham? Could he BE any more of a toady?
I think she might narrowly win the nomination then get soundly trounced in the general election.
Which is why this is a dangerous game for Republicans to play with a Senate race in a swing state. I hope they do this everywhere. It’s an indication that they are making political decisions with the goals of fundraising off their extremist base and making liberals cry, not winning general elections.
Popularity with Lindsey Graham’s voters.
I’m revisiting my previous prediction, and now think that I was wrong about what will happen if Democrats have a narrow majority. I didn’t foresee that Trumpism would still maintain this much of a hold on the Republican Party following a defeat. In particular the state GOPs censuring many of the senators that voted to convict Trump seems to bode poorly for them in purple states, especially those moving from red to blue. I now feel more optimistic about the chances of Raphael Warnock and Mark Kelly. If Lara Trump runs in North Carolina, the Democrats should be able to win that seat as well as long as they don’t shoot themselves in the foot like they did with Cal Cunningham. The seats in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin will probably be more difficult, but are still winnable. Florida, Ohio, and Iowa are likely R in my book, with Democrats probably having a less than 5% chance for those seats.
All that being said, I think the most likely outcome is 51-49 D with a pickup in North Carolina and holds in Arizona and Georgia. 52 or 53 D seats with pickups in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are the next most likely. PA is probably a little more likely than WI, but I’d really like to see Ron Johnson lose his seat. I think 53 is about as good as things likely could get for the Democrats.
I largely agree with your analysis and also appreciate someone who revises their views when the landscape changes. I hope I do the same over time.
I also see a 51-49 outcome favoring Dems. NC, WI, PA, AZ and GA remain tossups in my eyes and while midterms generally favor the party out of power, Republicans are doing a remarkable job of tarring themselves in the eyes of the voters. No Donald Trump on the ballot may depress GOP voting proportionally to how it will depress less disciplined Democratic voting.
Heck, winning two Biden states, WI and PA, and holding AZ and GA gets us to 52-48 and minimizes the damage Manchin and Sinema can do to progressive legislation. If we nuke the goddam filibuster.
With the right candidate, I’d say Ohio Democrats’ chances of taking Rob Portman (R-Spineless)'s seat next year are certainly better than 5%. But we shall see.
And down in Jawjuh: David Perdue files paperwork for potential 2022 Senate run
I’m mostly basing my predictions on momentum. Georgia and Ohio could both be fairly described as purple, but the momentum in Georgia is with the Democrats while in Ohio it’s with the Republicans. That’s why I think GA, AZ, and even NC are more likely to go Democratic than PA and WI.