It’s that time of the year, folks. While I no longer drink, this series is now old enough to pour one, and even though I’m not around that much anymore, mostly because outside of football I’m not as combative as I used to be, I’m going to be posting these until the SDMB is gone or I am, whichever comes first.
So, let’s get this out of the way: the Steelers are going to the Super Bowl this year. In 21 years I’ve only been right about that three times and I’ve only seen 2 wins, but this isn’t about reality, this is about rabid partisan fandom. I hate all of your teams and hope that none of them win from now until the heat death of the universe. My tribe is better than yours.
OK, now that I’m done with that, back to the real world. The AFC North clearly goes through Cincinnati. Joe Burrow just signed an outrageous contract so he’s going to be there for a while, the receiving corps is really good, the defense is solid. Their weaknesses are Joe Mixon, who had a bad season last year and is facing domestic violence charges so may not finish out the season anyway, and the offensive line. Burrow isn’t exactly made out of glass, but he’s not Ben Roethlisberger, either. If they can’t protect him he’ll miss some time, and that will put the division up in the air.
The Browns? Depends on Watson. Even if he plays well they’re looking at the basement, because the division is utterly stacked.
The Rats signed Lamar Jackson to an extension and hey, they finally gave him someone to throw to. He’s claiming 6000 yards passing this year, which is absurd given his history, but he should put up good numbers. The defense, surprisingly, is the weak link. The secondary is vulnerable and the Rats should see a lot of passing against them.
As for the rest of the AFC, the Chiefs already lost, granted without Kelce, but injuries are part of the game. Nobody cared that Pittsburgh didn’t have Watt for 6 games last year, so that’s no excuse. The Bills have some internal conflict and never seem to be able to get over the hump. The Jets have A-A-Ron and that should be a big improvement, the Dolphins are tough as long as Tua doesn’t get killed… the AFC East, like the North, is going to eat itself up. Out West the Chargers have to be the favorites, but again, they always find a way to blow it.
In the NFC the favorites have to be the damn dirty Iggles, who are trying mightily to become Georgia North. Seriously, they should send Kirby Smart a ring if they win it all (which they won’t). The Lions (!) are real this year and are a threat. And the Niners, who Pittsburgh opens with, depend on Brock Purdy after admitting colossal defeat on Trey Lance. They better be right or that ship will sink fast. Sam Darnold is a bust and he won’t take them anywhere.
But anyway, on to my beloved Steelers. The defense is led by two future Hall of Famers, Minkah Fitzpatrick and TJ Watt, and perhaps two more in Cam Heyward and Patrick Peterson. They got Joey Porter Jr. essentially for free as the first pick in the second round when he would have gone at 17 if the Patsies hadn’t given away Broderick Jones to keep him off the Jets. The only weakness on defense is the linebacking corps, though Nick Herbig appears to be a steal from the fourth round. So I’m not worried too much about the defense.
The offense revolves around Kenny Pickett. Why is everyone sleeping on him this year? Last year he was a rookie in a monster division who suffered some growing pains and some injuries and he still closed out the season with two consecutive comeback victories. With a year under his belt and time with Diontae Johnson, Pat Friermuth, and George Pickens, he should take a big leap. The improved offensive line needs only be adequate and more efficient passing will result, which should open up the run for Najee Harris and Jaylon Warren. Pickett had a perfect preseason and everyone looked ready to roll. I know, preseason. But I saw what I saw, and if they get even 90% of that in the regular season Pittsburgh will be utter beasts.
The predictions I’ve seen from so-called reputable pundits, not just homers like me, have varied from 7 wins and the basement all the way to Super Bowl champions. I lean toward the latter, but it could be anything. One thing I am certain of is that they will win at least 9 games, because Tomlin. The streak will at least continue.
That said, I’m predicting that they’ll have at least a shot at winning the division in the last week, if not taking it outright before then. I think a lot of the prognosticators are going to be eating crow at the end of the year. After that, who knows? All I know is that I can’t wait to find out.
Enjoy the season, folks.