53 bicycles: A lateral thinking puzzle

[Mahaloth]

@SpoilerVirgin

Did the device use electricity?

Was the distance the speech was transmitted longer than 100 yards?

Was it longer than one mile?

1. YES
2. YES
3. YES

Sent from my SM-S765C using Tapatalk

[Clothahump]

I’m gonna guess here.

Is Jasper a kid who called 911 saying he wanted a drink and the cops came and found his parents unconscious for some reason? Gas leak or something?

[Blue_Blistering_Barnacle]

Was he speaking through a pneumatic tube device (like one of those things on steamships)?

[Mahaloth]

@Clothahump

Is Jasper a kid who called 911 saying he wanted a drink and the cops came and found his parents unconscious for some reason? Gas leak or something?

No to everything there.

@Blue_Blistering_Barnacle

Was he speaking through a pneumatic tube device (like one of those things on steamships)?

No.

[snoe]

1. Hey Mahaloth, I didn’t see a confirmation from you that j666’s summary here is correct:

@j666

Jasper being heard at a distance* by a group of safety professionals caused them to do something that saved countless human lives sometime later.

• loosely speaking

Is it?

2. I notice that the original puzz post said “potentially saved countless lives.” Does “potentially” modify “saved” or “countless” in this sentence? I hope that question makes sense – I’m wondering whether there’s uncertainty about a) whether the lives would’ve been lost, b) how many lives were saved, or c) something else.

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[Mahaloth]

@snoe

1. Hey Mahaloth, I didn’t see a confirmation from you that j666’s summary here is correct:
   Is it?

2. I notice that the original puzz post said “potentially saved countless lives.” Does “potentially” modify “saved” or “countless” in this sentence? I hope that question makes sense – I’m wondering whether there’s uncertainty about a) whether the lives would’ve been lost, b) how many lives were saved, or c) something else.

[ul]
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1. Safety professionals? No. I don’t think so.

2. Really both. We don’t know alternate pasts, so we don’t know “a)” or “b)”.

[snoe]

@Mahaloth

1. Safety professionals? No. I don’t think so.

Ah. The solution is safety-oriented, but the profession of the group that took action isn’t one you’d normally label “safety professional.”
A: Is my summary on that point correct?
B: Is the group government employees? If not employees, somehow contracting with a government?
C: If yes to either part of B – would knowing the “level” of government (federal, state, canton, galactic, whatever) be helpful to finding the solution?

2. Really both. We don’t know alternate pasts, so we don’t know “a)” or “b)”.

Cool.
D. Can I ask for your best guess about how likely it was many lives would have been lost if Jasper hadn’t announced his need for water?
(Should I break this question down into “greater/less than 50% probability” tranches or something? I don’t think we need a super-precise answer; I’m just wondering whether the loss of life was very likely; unlikely but, y’know, a pooo-oossible outcome; something in between…)

[Peter_Morris]

Was the potential life-saving restricted to a particular time and place?
(for example, preventing the sinking of a ship or stopping a fire)

Was the potential life-saving continuous over a long period?
(for example, a medical breakthrough or the invention of a safety device)

Have lives been potentially saved within the last month?
Will lives be potentially saved in 2018?

[Mahaloth]

@snoe

Ah. The solution is safety-oriented, but the profession of the group that took action isn’t one you’d normally label “safety professional.”
A: Is my summary on that point correct?
B: Is the group government employees? If not employees, somehow contracting with a government?
C: If yes to either part of B – would knowing the “level” of government (federal, state, canton, galactic, whatever) be helpful to finding the solution?

Cool.
D. Can I ask for your best guess about how likely it was many lives would have been lost if Jasper hadn’t announced his need for water?
(Should I break this question down into “greater/less than 50% probability” tranches or something? I don’t think we need a super-precise answer; I’m just wondering whether the loss of life was very likely; unlikely but, y’know, a pooo-oossible outcome; something in between…)

A. Yes.
B. Yes, government employees.
C. Yes, probably.
D. I will do my best guess, though I would not take my guess seriously. We are talking “ifs” here. **Hundreds to Thousands saved. **

@Peter_Morris

Was the potential life-saving restricted to a particular time and place? YES
(for example, preventing the sinking of a ship or stopping a fire)

Was the potential life-saving continuous over a long period? NO, not directly. The lives saved that are relevant here were more or less immediate.
(for example, a medical breakthrough or the invention of a safety device)

Have lives been potentially saved within the last month? NO
Will lives be potentially saved in 2018? NO

[snoe]

@Mahaloth

A. Yes.
B. Yes, government employees.
C. Yes, probably.
D. I will do my best guess, though I would not take my guess seriously. We are talking “ifs” here. **Hundreds to Thousands saved. **

Thanks!

Followup to C: what “level” of government – federal, state, county, local, or other?

Followup to D: Thanks for the estimate on potential casualties. My question (which I phrased very long-windedly) was about how LIKELY it was for casualties to have occurred.

In other words, were hundreds or thousands very likely to die absent Jasper’s proclamation, or somewhat likely, or only slightly likely?

(An analogy, because I don’t feel like I’m being clear: if I’m in a room with 99 other people and one starts choking, I’ll do the Heimlich maneuver and save them. However, it’s only slightly likely that the victim would have died absent my action – many others in the room would probably have stepped up and done the same.)

[Mahaloth]

@snoe

Thanks!

Followup to C: what “level” of government – federal, state, county, local, or other?

FEDERAL

In other words, were hundreds or thousands very likely to die absent Jasper’s proclamation, or somewhat likely, or only slightly likely?

I DON’T KNOW. I’LL SAY “SUPER-LIKELY” OR “ALMOST SUPER-LIKELY”.

K.

[Ignotus]

Would the people saved by Jasper’s announcement otherwise have died from

1. Murder or warfare?

2. Non-intentional catastrophic failure of some man-made structure (like dam, nuclear power plant, or chemical factory)?

3. Natural disaster?

[j666]

Is the device the telegraph?

[Mahaloth]

@Ignotus

Would the people saved by Jasper’s announcement otherwise have died from

1. Murder or warfare? YES

2. Non-intentional catastrophic failure of some man-made structure (like dam, nuclear power plant, or chemical factory)? NO

3. Natural disaster? NO

@j666

Is the device the telegraph? NO

KK

[Knowed_Out]

Was Jasper involved in the development and/or production of something?
If so, did it have some kind of dangerous property?
Did this take place sometime from 1960 to the present?

[SpoilerVirgin]

Did Jasper make his announcement during a war?

If so, was the U.S. one of the primary combatants in the war?

Was the device involved military equipment at the time it was used?

Is the device involved primarily used by the military today?

[SpoilerVirgin]

Was the profession of the group that acted in response to Jasper’s announcement something military?

[Mahaloth]

@Knowed_Out

Was Jasper involved in the development and/or production of something? NO
If so, did it have some kind of dangerous property?
Did this take place sometime from 1960 to the present? NO

@SpoilerVirgin

Did Jasper make his announcement during a war? YES

If so, was the U.S. one of the primary combatants in the war? YES

Was the device involved military equipment at the time it was used? YES

Is the device involved primarily used by the military today? NO

@SpoilerVirgin

Was the profession of the group that acted in response to Jasper’s announcement something military? YES

I’m sure you guys can get this. Do not Google anything! Resist the urge to cheat!

[newme]

**Mahaloth **PM sent. If I am right, I promise to remain silent. No googling involved!

[SpoilerVirgin]

I’ve been resisting the urge to cheat for six days now!

Was the military equipment involved a form of transportation?

Was the military equipment involved a form of weaponry?

Was the military equipment involved communications equipment at the time it was used?

Was Jasper serving in the army?

Was Jasper serving in the navy?

Was Jasper serving in the air force?

Was Jasper serving in some other military branch?