538's House model has launched!

We start out with a 75% chance of Democrats taking the House. Average gain in their models is +35.

Awesome! God I love Nate and his team.

This we agree on without reservation. I’m a little concerned about a 7.6 point popular vote advantage translating into only a 75% chance of taking the House. Fixing gerrymandering will help with that somewhat.

I mean, I don’t want the Democrats to take the House, but if they win by 7 points they should have the House. If they win by 3 they should have the House. Under 3 I can chalk up to Republicans having a natural advantage due to concentration of Democratic voters.

But it’s not good for democracy to have a wide difference between popular vote and apportionment.

adaher, I debated starting a thread for the 538 model when I posted about it in another thread. Thanks for starting this.

Hey, there’s a reason Republicans are so quick to stress that we have A Republic, Not A Democracy, and it isn’t just the name of their party.

The less cautious ones go on to whine about how unfair it is that less-populated regions can’t swing elections and don’t have as much say in government as more-populated reasons, never quite grasping what exactly that sounds like to everyone else.

I believe the 7.6% lead is a prediction that corresponds to the average predicted outcome (D winning ~208 seats). If Republicans win a majority, it will be because the D+ 7.6% prediction didn’t come true.

The “75% chance of taking the house” includes the possibility of polls being inaccurate, of voters changing their minds between now and the election, etc.

Nate is Tweeting a thread of races to watch right now.

Link

Haha. Rouda slightly favored over Rohrabacher. I would LOVE that.

My local guy–Mark Meadows, Mr. “Impeach Rosenstein”–has a >99% chance of winning.

Man, fuck that guy.

By my count the republicans have a 43 seat lead in the house. 236-196, with six vacant seats

So 38 seats changed to Democrats will not win them the house.

You’re probably going to want to re-think your math on this one. I’ll give you a formulaic hint: +1 = -1

I have confidence in you.

I remember the days long ago when Republicans were often viewed as the hard-nosed realists.

Now, we have to contend with a Republican idea that a House with 236 Republicans and 234 Democrats is even possible.

This is a joke post right?

That’s been a dodge, a piece of marketing, for decades. It serves them well whenever they make Tough Decisions which are, somehow, only tough on poor and middle-class people, especially since it allows them to paint things like gay rights, single-payer healthcare, and raising the top marginal tax rate as “soft-headed nonsense” without having to come up with any real arguments against them which pass the laugh test.

They made themselves out to be The Party Of Adults, and adults never have to explain themselves to anyone else. So shut up, vote Republican, and never question what President Adult does.

LOL. Arithmetic is hard.

This is your funniest post yet! Well done!

A quick check of my state’s 7 districts shows that Colorado could flip from 4R/3D to as many as 5D/2R, though it seems more likely to be 4D/3R. The three districts currently held by Democrats, including the 2nd, where I live and is the only open seat (Jared Polis is giving up the seat to run for governor), are rock solid.

Mike Coffman in the 6th is the most vulnerable Republican here, with 538 giving him only a 3-in-8 chance of holding the seat. I think he’s not that bad, but I’m still rooting for him to lose.

I am cautiously optimistic for November, but a 1-in-4 chance of the Republicans holding the House is not a zero chance of holding the House. I’d be pretty scared if I got a medical diagnosis with a 25% probability of death in the next year, is all I’m saying.

Maybe this is like the 3 million illegal votes?

I work in Polis’s district and live in Perlmutter’s. Both are safe D even without Polis running.

I knew Coffman was going to have a tough time and Jason Crow is a pretty good candidate. Army Ranger, combat veteran, lawyer, family man.

I just learned today that Diane Mitsch Bush has a chance to unseat Scott Tipton, but I don’t know much about either candidate.

Good new article here https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/25-districts-that-could-decide-the-house-in-2018/?ex_cid=2018-forecast
on likely “tipping-point” districts. Wealthy Midwestern suburbs seem to be over-represented.

And, seeing those red and blue percentage-chance lines in that timeline graphic (“How the forecast has changed”) evoked extremely unpleasant memories of late night nailbiting two years ago (and of course the disaster at the end of the ordeal).

236-38=198 Rs
196+38=234 Ds

234>198

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The day before the presidential election, I remember seeing over 78% for a Hillary win. Just sayin’…