I was talking to our financial advisor on Friday (we’re trying to build a house). He said they are using a four year horizon for a vaccine in their models. Some are hoping for this fall… An article in the times https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/30/opinion/coronavirus-covid-vaccine.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage&action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage thinks it could be longer than that. I don’t want to contemplate “never.”
A lot of people on the Dope and IRL seem to be taking the approach that they can avoid getting Covid-19, and for many it seems like this should be the goal for all, almost no matter what. Unless we see a real vaccine in mass quantities this year, I don’t see how this is possible. I’m curious what folks see in their future if it is in fact 4 years to a vaccine?
I’m in Montana. We have no active cases in our county as of last week. All that means, though, is no hospitalizations since we are testing less than 300 people a day state-wide. Right now life is returning to some kind of normal–stores and restaurants are opening, people are definitely flocking to the trails. However, our economy is at least 50% tourism and Montana State U. I don’t see how either of those resume without real problems before there is a vaccine.
So–does anyone see a viable way through to a vaccine if it’s a few years away? Can we quantify what it means in various scenarios if it takes that long or longer? I don’t even want to think about reinfection.