No, I’m not suggesting that Shadow Stats! is making up its numbers.
I am flat out asserting that he’s making up the numbers based on the released information, or more precisely, that he’s manipulating CPI data in a totally arbitrary and indefensible way. His numbers are not only manufactured, but they give every appearance of being manufactured in the absolute laziest way possible, in essentially the same way that Unskewed Polls! manufactured its numbers. The real data coming in from the legitimate hard-working pollsters was inconveniently too fact-based, so they took those numbers and systematically added several points to Romney’s score in order to make themselves feel better in the most delusional way possible.
The people who have looked at the graphs from Shadow Stats! can see it’s a similar operation. He takes the official figures and puts his fat greasy thumb on the scale. He basically just adds a constant, for god’s sake, and for some of his alternate measures, the constant increases as time goes by. This is the kind of mindless “analysis” for which he charges $175 a year.
That last graph I cited shows a particularly contemptible example.
In that particular unskewed index, he has that alternate inflation rate at 5% in late 2008, the same year the price of oil went from $145 a barrel in July to $30 a barrel in December. Yeah. Right. He has the general price level going up by 5% at the same time that oil dropped by 80%. Food prices were also dropping like a rock: corn went from $8 a bushel to less than $4, wheat from over $11 to around $6. This is not to mention that we were in the middle of the collapse of the housing bubble.
But he has an alternate index where prices were actually inflating at 5% a year. Unreal. Simply unreal.
And now you have done us all the favor of putting yourself permanently on the record of having given an earnest defense of the integrity of these numbers. Thank you for that.
The creator of the website, John Williams, is a charlatan who’s not qualified to tell us whether his own shoes are tied.
Look at the 5% inflation rate he reports in 2008. Look at it. That’s all the “evidence” from him that we need. That is sheer insanity. And to defend him, what do you do? Bold quote an unnecessarily large excerpt of his bio, as if that is evidence. His “qualifications”, such as they are, aren’t relevant, no matter how impressive they might seem to the ignorant and economically unsophisticated. Lots of stupid, irrational people have fancy degrees. I have three separate pieces of paper myself that say I’m an educated guy, but I don’t rely on the sheepskins to make my case for me. Biography is nothing. I rely on evidence, and John Williams has none. In fact, he’s been saying hyperinflation is “likely” since before the Lehman Shock, and even once claimed that it will happen “by 2014”. Just half a year left on that one.
In my post, I cited the MIT Billion Prices Project, which is not a government source. It was put together by professors at one of the most prestigious universities in the country. Do I trust the Billion Prices Project because of the prestige of their uni? No, or at least, not for that reason alone. I trust it because it shows deflation in late 2008 and early 2009. This is what we should expect, or at least those of us who are capable of interpreting basic market prices. You don’t need to trust the government to see the price of energy and food dropping like a rock, because those particular bits of data are available to everyone. It’s dead easy to interpret.
All it requires is not being stupid.
That’s not a high hurdle to jump. Except for stupid people.
You didn’t read my post carefully.
Well, okay, to be fair you don’t seem to read anything carefully, so I’ll take a moment to quote myself here.
Look at the difference between our posts.
From the beginning, I specifically admitted the possibility that the government numbers might be off. Then I expressed delight in the modern age of technology, where there are other non-governmental prices indices we can use to test how honest the government is being. This is to say that from the very beginning, I accepted the possibility that the government’s numbers might be wrong, and then I went looking for a reliable non-governmental version.
And you? Exactly the opposite. You decided in advance that the government was wrong. “What leads to you think that the government would NOT want to misrepresent its economic statistics? Unless you work for the government you would be happy to see its misrepresentations exposed.” You have already made up your mind that they are lying, and you want those “misrepresentations” exposed. This is why you delight in any bit of nonsense that comes your way that reinforces your pre-existing belief. This is why you accepted stupid numbers so blindly, despite their obvious unreliability. They told you what you wanted to hear, and you thoughtlessly ate that shit up.
I recommend that you feel embarrassed about this.
I was open to the possibility that the numbers were wrong. So off I went to the Billion Prices Project. I linked to their graph where they compare their own measure of inflation with the government’s measure, and I mentally noted a few important things. First, I saw that they had their price index dropping in late 2008, which is the sort of outcome that actually makes sense in a world where the prices of food and oil are collapsing. Then I noticed that their price index matched up in a fairly pleasing way with the government’s index.
This is independent corroboration of the in-the-right-ballpark-ness of the government’s numbers. This gives a lot of strength to the people in the BLS who claim that they’re genuinely trying to do an accurate job measuring inflation. I admitted the possibility that the government might be lying, but when I found a reputable resource that provided figures very close to the government’s, I was led naturally to the conclusion that the government workers are pretty much okay.
Is there an incentive for the government to lie about certain things? Yes. Of course. But there is also an incentive for people in the government to want to be extremely well informed about the actual state of the economy. There is also in the incentive for stat-hounds in the government to do their job honestly and well. There is also an incentive for data-loving people outside the government to demand good data. And there is also, most relevant for this thread, an incentive for people who don’t like government to make up their own fantasy data when the official figures don’t tell them the story they want to hear. Shadow Stats! has been claiming that hyperinflation is “likely” for years and years. There’s an incentive to make a stronger case for inflation now for someone who believes there will be hyperinflation by 2014.
There’s also an incentive for ill-informed ideologues on the internet to creduously swallow his numbers without any attempt to compare them to the historical record.
When I wrote that it was “hilarious” that his own product has shown no increase in price, what I meant was that it was hilarious.
It’s certainly suggestive that in the same time period where he claims that the purchasing power of a dollar has practically dropped in half, he’s still charging the same amount. That would mean he’s effectively charging half price for his services, compared to seven years ago. You are, however, correct to note that there are theoretically other reasons for this to happen. It’s not proof of anything by itself. It’s just icing on the cake.
That post that I quoted says “modern world” and “modern global economy” and “the last hundred years or so”. It has literally never happened in the modern financial era that any country has returned to gold after abandoning it. No exceptions.
Is it your contention that the Civil War happened in the modern global economy? I guess you could point out that the countries of Europe actually did attempt to return to gold in the 1920s, only to abandon the attempt in the 1930s. That was the last genuine effort. This is within 100 years, but he didn’t say “exactly 100 years, no exceptions!”. He said 100 years or so. Would it make you happier if he had written 90 years or so? If you’re genuinely having trouble understanding his point because he wrote 100 years or so, instead of 90 years or so, I’d be happy to rewrite the post for you. I can personally replace those numbers, and make sure the proper qualification appears in every single relevant sentence, if it would make it easier for you to follow.
My one-year old niece naturally makes a mess eating. If I ever visit, I’m perfectly happy to help guide the food into her mouth, making airplane noises, if it helps get the vegetables down. It’s not a problem at all.
In every case of hyperinflation in the modern financial world, the only choice for such a society has been to return to a sounder basis for their money… meaning that they use a fiat money system. When their fiat system failed, they replaced it with a new fiat system. Weimar Germany was the last hyperinflation that returned to gold in the 1920s (about 90 years ago), and their return to gold didn’t last ten years. Their gold standard failed again.
No country has returned to gold in the modern financial world. Not once. When a fiat system fails, it’s replaced with a new fiat system. Currency pegs are still used, but nobody decides to peg to gold. Instead, countries choose to peg their currencies to other fiat moneys. The US dollar is a popular choice for a currency peg, as is a basket of currencies. It’s [del]turtles[/del] fiat money all the way down. Even Bretton Woods, the dinosaur that lasted into the 70s, wasn’t a proper gold standard. The US maintained its devalued peg from FDR, but private ownership of gold was outlawed and all the other countries in the system pegged their currencies to the dollar.
Every gold standard in history failed. No country in the modern financial era has ever tried to return to one. The dinosaur finally went extinct in the 1970s, but the asteroid hit long before that.