A chance for change in Iran. The non-shitty version.

[Uzi]

@mswas

Her name is Neda.

It’s right in the article I quoted:smack: Do’h!

[Siam_Sam]

And now Iran has arrested eight local British Embassy staffers. Story here. The story says “about nine,” but BBC TV is saying eight. The situation between the two countries seems to be deteriorating.

[mswas]

@Siam_Sam

And now Iran has arrested eight local British Embassy staffers. Story here. The story says “about nine,” but BBC TV is saying eight. The situation between the two countries seems to be deteriorating.

Why are they having problems with Britain in particular?

[EddyTeddyFreddy]

As I understand it, Britain was at least as culpable as, if not more so than, the United States in the toppling of Mosaddegh and installation of the Shah. Britain in fact was the foreign power most directly involved in controlling Iran’s oil through the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company (later British Petroleum).

Also, the BBC I understand has been strong and blunt in covering the post-election upheaval in Iran.

[mswas]

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1907548,00.html?xid=rss-topstories

Over the years, however, certain units among the Basij were trained for state control purposes. In 1999, they appeared prominently as shock troops in quelling urban dissent following student demonstrations that initially sought greater freedom for the press. “Increasingly, Sepah used the Basij as a force for indoctrination and in the role of a watchdog group on campuses, factories and even tribal units,” says Frederic Wehrey, adjunct senior policy analyst at the Rand Corporation, who has done several joint-studies on the Sepah. “The aim was to militarize civil society to prevent currents that the Islamic Republic is opposed to.”

“These past weeks,” Sazegara estimates, “the state has used about 12,000 such plainclothes forces in addition to another 28,000 official police and Sepah forces to control the dissent.”

But Sazegara sees the possibility for division. “Many of the commanders in the Sepah have children who are in their twenties and who have joined the recent protests,” he told TIME. Since Ahmadinejad took office in 2005, the Supreme Leader swapped out most wartime commanders in the Sepah, replacing them, in Sazegara’s words, “with a bunch of yes-men.”

“There are many Basijis who were in support of Mousavi,” says an Iran-based analyst who requested anonymity, himself previously an active member of the Basij. “Many Basijis are upset that the recent violence has been attributed to them.”

[DSeid]

Ah. Here he is! Sort of.

As unrest in Iran continued with reports of police clashing violently with up to 3,000 protesters in Teheran, one of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s political rivals, former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, called on Sunday for a systematic and just probe into claims of fraud in the June 12 national elections, Reuters reported … In Sunday’s statement, Rafsanjani lauded Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s decision of last week to grant a five day extension to the deadline set for Iran’s legislative body to probe complaints by the three defeated candidates.

“This valuable move by the Supreme Leader in order to attract the people’s trust towards the election process was very effective,” Rafsanjani said during a meeting with families of victims of a 1981 bombing in the Iranian capital, which killed many officials.

“I hope those who are involved in this issue thoroughly and fairly review and study the legal complaints,” he added.

Still holding cards pretty damn close to his vest aint he. Reading in, it seems like he is trying to paint a path for Khamenei to follow. Or he he could just be sucking up.

And this at the same time.

Talk of a power struggle within the highest ranks of the Iranian regime continues to surface, with al-Arabiya TV reporting former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani has been organizing opposition against Khamenei.

The Guardian newspaper also reports that Rafsanjani has been attempting to rally a majority of the 86-member Assembly of Experts, which he heads, to replace Khamenei “with a small committee of senior ayatollahs.”

Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani, who recently boycotted an election victory celebration by President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad, has also begun to deviate from official government positions, demanding, recently, that parliament investigate post-election violence “in a fair and even-handed manner.”

[mswas]

The problem is, if they find that Ahmadinejad was justly elected no one will believe it.

[Siam_Sam]

@mswas

Why are they having problems with Britain in particular?

@EddyTeddyFreddy

As I understand it, Britain was at least as culpable as, if not more so than, the United States in the toppling of Mosaddegh and installation of the Shah. Britain in fact was the foreign power most directly involved in controlling Iran’s oil through the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company (later British Petroleum).

Also, the BBC I understand has been strong and blunt in covering the post-election upheaval in Iran.

Yes, Iran is blaming the UK – the “Little Satan,” as opposed to the “Great Satan” United States – in particular for the recent unrest surrounding the elections. As mentioned earlier, they’ve expelled the main BBC reporter, who from what I could tell really did strive to be balanced in his reporting (we have BBC TV). He was at the pro-government rallies, too.

[EddyTeddyFreddy]

@mswas

The problem is, if they find that Ahmadinejad was justly elected no one will believe it.

Remind me in a twisted way of one acquaintance’s comment on the OJ Simpson verdict: “That’s what happens when the cops set out to frame a guilty man.”

[DSeid]

The EU may withdraw ambassadors in concert. Nice to have Iranian leadership in a position where they have to call all of the EU a greater Satan than the US or give up on that ploy.

What are the odds of general strikes being called for within the next few weeks as this prolongs and street protests are cut off as an option? I’d say pretty high, unless they find some other way to compromise before then.

[DSeid]

The EU is now considering withdrawl of its ambassadors in concert. It would place Iranian leadership in the position of calling all of the EU a greater Satan than America. Fun times.

Any guesses on whether or not there will be a call for a general strike and when?
I say yes and within two weeks.

[Siam_Sam]

@DSeid

The EU is now considering withdrawl of its ambassadors in concert. It would place Iranian leadership in the position of calling all of the EU a greater Satan than America. Fun times.

The US is the “Great Satan.” The UK is the “Little Satan.” I suppose the EU could be “All Those Other Satans.” It has a snappy ring to it.

[BrainGlutton]

@Tamerlane

Above my paygrade :). I’m just not well-informed enough to even pretend to offer a definitive list. For one thing they seem to morph and shift from one year to another and boundaries can get blurry. The ‘Reformists’ alone consist of myriad little seperate parties and organizations.

But there does seem to have been a split in recent years between more restrained ‘moderate conservatives/New Technocrats/pragmatic conservatives’ vs. ‘radicals/ultra-conservatives/neo-conservatives/fundamentalist conservatives/hardline conservatives’ in Ahmadinejad’s camp. So for example, I mentioned the current mayor of Tehran and former national police chief Mohammed Bagher Ghalibraf. He is considered a political opponent of Ahmadinejad, while still being a loyal follower of the revolution and close to Khamene’i, rather than part of the ‘reformist’ camp.

See for instance this article contrasting Ahmadinejad’ ‘Neo-Conservatives’ vs. ‘New Technocrats’ : http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav061008.shtml

Or this one, ‘Pragmatic Conservatives’ vs. ‘Fundamentalist Conservatives’: http://www.islamonline.net/servlet/Satellite?c=Article_C&cid=1212394739518&pagename=Zone-English-Muslim_Affairs%2FMAELayout

Thanx. This is also interesting:

With impeccable establishment credentials honed during his stint as prime minister, Moussavi took sides in a left-versus-right split among the Iranian elite, including the clergy, that resulted in the creation of two broad factions at the end of the 1980s. The left-leaning Association of Combatant Clergy, also known as the Roohanioon, quit the more conservative Association of Militant Clergy, known as the Roohaniyat, which was loyal to the newly inaugurated Ayatollah Khamenei, who succeeded the late Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, founder of the Islamic Republic. Among the Roohanioon leaders were Moussavi, Mohammad Khatami and a group of relatively progressive, open-minded thinkers who became known as Iran’s “reformists.” In 1997, at the end of Rafsanjani’s presidency, the reformists’ first choice to run for president was Moussavi. When he demurred, Khatami ran and–to the surprise of everyone–won overwhelmingly. Moussavi was a key adviser to President Khatami.

The hard right, egged on by Khamenei, counterattacked. It used death squads, vigilantes, secret intelligence units, the Guardian Council and the judiciary to cripple Khatami’s presidency. In 2005, with the backing of the IRGC, the hardliners rallied behind the candidacy of Ahmadinejad, who after his election promptly launched a political, cultural and economic reversal. The IRGC itself became Iran’s most powerful institution. Alongside its military might, it acquired a vast economic empire, from oil and construction to cellphone technology. Suddenly its personnel were everywhere. “The IRGC commanders, both active and retired, act as a kind of fraternity or freemasonry, wielding power that goes far beyond their official positions by virtue of the informal network they operate,” an Iranian insider told me, looking to his left and right to make sure he wasn’t being overheard in a busy Tehran lounge.

[BrainGlutton]

@DSeid

Any guesses on whether or not there will be a call for a general strike and when?
I say yes and within two weeks.

Does that ever work?

A general strike has obvious practical time limits. If no one in the country works, then before too long no one eats – including the strikers.

[Der_Trihs]

@Siam_Sam

The US is the “Great Satan.” The UK is the “Little Satan.” I suppose the EU could be “All Those Other Satans.” It has a snappy ring to it.

The Axis of Satans ?

[DSeid]

Meanwhile this analysis inAl-Ahram Weekly:

Arab public opinion is divided between support for the demonstrations as the legitimate right of all peoples, and rejection of them as a product of the West and a tool for bringing down the Iranian regime. …

… The mobilisations in Iran are taking place on two levels: demonstrations on the streets and before the cameras, on the one hand, and on the other Rafsanjani’s mobilisations within the state’s upper echelons and behind the scenes to build an alliance in opposition to Ahmadinejad. Rafsanjani is formidable as he defends his political presence in Iran, his battling fierce, but he’s not only competing with Ahmadinejad politically now that the dispute has grown considerably. Rafsanjani is just as dangerous for Ahmadinejad as the demonstrators are, and possibly more so. His declaring obedience to the supreme guide is a purely tactical move that does not necessarily mean submitting to Ahmadinejad. In contrast, former president Mohamed Khatami has a different status – he supports Mousavi and reform but does not have a presence in the state apparatuses like Rafsanjani, and his popularity abroad is stronger than it is domestically. Khatami has become infamous in Iran for not being able to take action or to confront adversaries. If Mousavi had won the elections, Khatami might have become an advisor to him, but given the current crisis, other, more important roles may open up to Khatami in the future, and he might at some stage become a mid-way solution between the conflicting currents. Stabilisation of matters in Ahmadinejad’s interest would mean a decline in Khatami’s presence and luck in Iranian politics. …

… The conflict in Tehran’s upper state echelons led by Rafsanjani against Ahmadinejad will be decisive in determining Iran’s near future and more so than the street demonstrations that seem to have now ceased.

And this

Hashemi Rafsanjani has “declined” to lead the Friday prayers for a second time. “Temporary Friday prayer Imams” are scheduled to lead the sermons by taking turns. No official reason has been announced on why Rafsanjani has not been present for his last two turns.

This is a long way from over.

And I defer to better students of political history than I but my impression is that general strikes often do work.

[dropzone]

And can we say that the “non-shitty” route has been negated?

[BrainGlutton]

@Siam_Sam

And now Iran has arrested eight local British Embassy staffers. Story here. The story says “about nine,” but BBC TV is saying eight. The situation between the two countries seems to be deteriorating.

And now they’re planning to put them on trial. (On what charges, the story does not say.)

[tagos]

@DSeid

Meanwhile this analysis inAl-Ahram Weekly:And thisThis is a long way from over.

And I defer to better students of political history than I but my impression is that general strikes often do work.

They do but what we are forgetting is that first, all we are talking about here is the very loony and bad candidate against the loony and bad candidate.

That the Slightly Lesser Evil has had unrealistic expectations placed on him doesn’t mean anything would change even if he somehow ‘won’.

Also - just as the media ignored all the vast counter-demonstrations we are failing to see that the Greater Evil has plenty of support (not to mention all the guns). Probably the majority given the only independent western poll evidence we have suggested 60% support.

There is no ‘uprising’. Just wishful thinking on our parts conditioned by the templates of the eastern european ‘uprisings’.

[BrainGlutton]

@tagos

They do but what we are forgetting is that first, all we are talking about here is the very loony and bad candidate against the loony and bad candidate.

That the Slightly Lesser Evil has had unrealistic expectations placed on him doesn’t mean anything would change even if he somehow ‘won’.

Well, it might be more complicated than that.

Besides reformists, students, women and businessmen, Khamenei and Ahmadinejad are losing their core constituency: the clergy. And given that Iran is a state run by the priestly class, that might prove their undoing. I spoke to a dozen or so clerics, from low- to mid-ranking mullahs to a few who’d attained the rank of hojatolislam, just below ayatollah. There are hundreds of thousands of mullahs in Iran, perhaps a hundred or more who have attained the rank of ayatollah, and just two dozen or so who have developed sufficient reputation and following to be called grand ayatollah. And more and more of them, including many grand ayatollahs, have joined the opposition. “After the television debates with Ahmadinejad, a large number of mullahs who’d been undecided went over to Moussavi,” one hojatolislam told me. They were offended, he said, by Ahmadinejad’s insulting attitude toward Moussavi–particularly his rhetorical assault on his wife, Rahnavard, whom he accused of falsifying her academic credentials–and his accusations against Rafsanjani and Khatami. “A president should be polite,” the cleric told me. “Impolite behavior and ugliness cannot be accepted.”

Another cleric, who campaigned for Moussavi in dozens of Iranian towns and cities, said that the majority of mullahs had abandoned the president. “There is a big gap between Ahmadinejad and the clergy,” he told me. “Many of the grand ayatollahs are angry, because the president has taken many actions without consulting with them. They are especially unhappy because he has shown an aggressive face of Islam to the world, and Islam is not aggressive. It is a religion of peace.” Some three-quarters of the grand ayatollahs in Iran support Moussavi, he told me. Ten of them sent a joint letter to Ahmadinejad, but he ignored them, he said. Several others have openly castigated the regime for its treatment of protesters.

A very well-connected mullah I talked with said that he is a friend and follower of Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri. Back in the late 1980s, Montazeri was the designated successor to Khomeini as Iran’s Leader, but hardliners–including Khomeini’s son and a circle around Khamenei–ousted him, he told me, because of his liberal views and installed Khamenei. Through this mullah and several other intermediaries, both Moussavi and former president Khatami keep in close contact with Montazeri, as well as with many in the clerical establishment in Qom. In the wake of the election Moussavi and his supporters began organizing what they hoped would be a broad consensus among senior ayatollahs to force Ahmadinejad out or, if it comes to that, to replace Khamenei himself. “Khamenei does not deserve the position that he has,” the mullah told me. “He has become a politician, and as a politician he has been corrupted.” Describing Khamenei in these terms is extremely unusual, and indicates how much the Ahmadinejad-Khamenei axis has lost its legitimacy. “Khamenei has lost the support of many high-ranking clergy in Qom,” declared Ibrahim Yazdi in my interview with him.

Trying to pull together this opposition is Rafsanjani, who so far has stayed behind the scenes but according to numerous reports from Iran is playing a critical role in efforts to counter both Ahmadinejad and Khamenei. The former president is chair of the Assembly of Experts, a group of more than eighty clerics who have the power, under Iran’s Constitution, to appoint or dismiss the Leader. “Rafsanjani has convinced the majority of the Assembly of Experts and several dozen clerics in Qom to support an effort to overturn the election results,” a well-connected Iranian told me. According to Yazdi and several other Iranian activists and analysts, at least some of the clergy want to replace Khamenei with a far more moderate, less political council of ayatollahs as a way of restoring consensus in the leadership [see Sarfaraz, “Iran’s New Revolutionaries,” in last week’s issue]. It would in effect be the end of the Khomeini doctrine of velayat-e-faqih (“rule of the jurisprudent”), which is the underpinning of the notion of a Supreme Leader, a concept invented by Khomeini that is far outside mainstream Muslim, and even Shiite, thinking.

That would be real change – from what Iran has now. Of course, not even the most “moderate” mullahs would want to abolish the Islamic Republic or tolerate any moves in that direction.