Fraudulent Elections in Iran

[Plan_B]

In this article Roger Simon gives a summary of recent activity:

http://pajamasmedia.com/rogerlsimon/2009/06/12/voting-for-ahmadinejad-in-la-part-two-how-fraudulent-was-the-iranian-election/

He includes a link to an anti-government demonstration in Iran on Friday. And there are more links at Instapundit.

My belief is that we should act aggressively to help the people of Iran to overthrow the current regime. Could we discuss this? Also if anyone believes the elections were clean I’d like to hear that point of view.

[Bryan_Ekers]

My plan has always been to bombard the country with cheap satellite dishes, tuned to pick up a signal that includes Farsi-dubbed James Bond movies, episodes of Baywatch and miles upon miles of porn.

[Der_Trihs]

I doubt that trying to overthrow the government would do anything but make it look more legitimate in the eyes of the Iranian people.

[hansel]

It’s been a continual complaint of moderates in Iran that even the appearance of American support undermines their credibility with Iranians generally. Any American involvement would probably be counterproductive.

[Honesty]

@Plan_B

My belief is that we should act aggressively to help the people of Iran to overthrow the current regime. Could we discuss this?

Overthrow the current regime? Absolutely not. It’d just end up a big mess like Iraq was. No more nation building! The United States has been meddling in the affairs of the Middle Eastern countries for far too long. Unless Iran is attempting to exterminate its citizenry or create a nuclear weapon, the U.S should not get involved in Iran’s political affairs.

[foolsguinea]

It wouldn’t be the first time the Khomeini faction has put up implausible election numbers. If they control the counting, they can say whatever they want.

[Kobal2]

I wonder, OP. Back in 2000, when US elections appeared to be in part “fraudulent”, not only to the international community but to Americans themselves, would you have appreciated another country to interfere in any way ?

Let them sort out their own elections their own way.

[GIGObuster]

I also think we should help when the will of the people is ignored.

However, as much as I dislike the current Iranian president I remember seeing recent polls that showed that the opposition had lower levels of support.

And every time I checked for the polls in the past I got unsourced reports saying that “unofficial polls suggested” a close race. :dubious:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/02/world/middleeast/02iran.html?ref=middleeast

Abbas Barzegar, a graduate student in religious studies at Emory University does mention that fraud was possible but unlikely:

Wishful thinking from Tehran | Abbas Barzegar

Of course, the rather real possibility of voter fraud exists and one must wait in the coming weeks to see how these allegations unfold. But one should recall that in three decades of presidential elections, the accusations of rigging have rarely been levied against the vote count. Elections here are typically controlled by banning candidates from the start or closing opposition newspapers in advance.

In this election moreover, there were two separate governmental election monitors in addition to observers from each camp to prevent mass voter fraud. The sentimental implausibility of Ahmedinejad’s victory that Mousavi’s supporters set forth as the evidence of state corruption must be met by the equal implausibility that such widespread corruption could take place under clear daylight. So, until hard evidence emerges that can substantiate the claims of the opposition camp we need to look to other reasons to explain why so many are stunned by the day’s events.

As far as international media coverage is concerned, it seems that wishful thinking got the better of credible reporting. It is true that Mousavi supporters jammed Tehran traffic for hours every night over the last week, though it was rarely mentioned that they did so only in the northern well-to-do neighborhoods of the capital. Women did relax their head covers and young men did dance in the street.

On Monday night at least 100,000 of the former prime minister’s supporters set up a human chain across Tehran. But, hours before I had attended a mass rally for the incumbent president that got little to no coverage in the western press because, on account of the crowds, he never made it inside the hall to give his speech. Minimal estimates from that gathering have been placed at 600,000 (enthusiasts say a million). From the roof I watched as the veiled women and bearded men of all ages poured like lava.

But the failure to properly gauge Iran’s affairs is hardly a new phenomenon. When the 1979 revolution shattered the military dictatorship of America’s strongest ally in the region few experts outside of the country suspected that the Islamic current would emerge as the leading party.

[Henrichek]

What sort of voting irregularities have been documented, and on which scale? I wouldn’t be surprised of a rigged election, but I’d like some cites before I accept it as truth.

[Baron_Greenback]

@Plan_B

My belief is that we should act aggressively to help the people of Iran to overthrow the current regime.

Who’s “we”, Plan B? What aggressions are you personally planning on doing?

[Plan_B]

@Honesty

Overthrow the current regime? Absolutely not. It’d just end up a big mess like Iraq was. No more nation building! The United States has been meddling in the affairs of the Middle Eastern countries for far too long. Unless Iran is attempting to exterminate its citizenry or create a nuclear weapon, the U.S should not get involved in Iran’s political affairs.

I don’t mean this in a sarcastic way, but I think that is exactly what they are doing. But it does sound like you’re saying that at some point - whether or not we agree on when it is - you would support overthrowing the regime.

[Plan_B]

@Struan

Who’s “we”, Plan B? What aggressions are you personally planning on doing?

To answer the first question…I was thinking of say “Should the US…?” but left it more open to participation from others. How about if I say "Should good people who are educated and know about the benefits of democracy and are aware of atrocities and have resources to spare…?

In terms of the second question I really don’t know enough about tactics to discuss it intelligently. Should we bomb them or summon their ambassador to the White House and and scare the bejeezuz out of him? I honestly don’t understand how diplomatic sanctions work. That’s why I left that open.

But I will at least endorse Bryan Elkers’ plan. I’d donate money to that in a heartbeat.

[Plan_B]

@Kobal2

I wonder, OP. Back in 2000, when US elections appeared to be in part “fraudulent”, not only to the international community but to Americans themselves, would you have appreciated another country to interfere in any way ?

If citizens of some other nations, or even some governments, chose to do something educational about democracy and free elections, I think that would’ve been pretty cool. Even though I voted for GWB I would have welcomed them, maybe even participated a bit.

[Peter_Morris]

@Plan_B

My belief is that we should act aggressively to help the people of Iran to overthrow the current regime. Could we discuss this?

Sure, another war is just what we need. When you say “we” I take it that you will volunteer for the front line then? Or by “we” do you mean other people than you?

[Baron_Greenback]

@Plan_B

To answer the first question…I was thinking of say “Should the US…?” but left it more open to participation from others. How about if I say "Should good people who are educated and know about the benefits of democracy and are aware of atrocities and have resources to spare…?

In terms of the second question I really don’t know enough about tactics to discuss it intelligently. Should we bomb them or summon their ambassador to the White House and and scare the bejeezuz out of him? I honestly don’t understand how diplomatic sanctions work. That’s why I left that open.

But I will at least endorse Bryan Elkers’ plan. I’d donate money to that in a heartbeat.

Thanks, a bit of context helped.

Personally I’d let the young people of Iran sort things out, and when they finally throw out the fanatics (and perhaps it has started BBC NEWS | Middle East | Ahmadinejad re-election sparks Iran clashes ) and take control of their own country the West should be there with a firm handshake and a hearty and honest welcome. Intervention, particularly a military one, before this will delay the inevitable for decades.

[MovieMogul]

From Andrew Sullivan:

One of my readers has forwarded this report that Moussavi has been put under house arrest and that Rafsanjani has resigned or been detained. There’s also a report that Sianat az ara, the election monitors who are approved by all the candidates, have also declared the result a fraud. I don’t read Farsi so if anyone can confirm this reader’s news, I’d be grateful. As of now, I am not reporting this, just asking. I find nothing of this sort on the English wires. If it’s true, obviously this moment is spiraling into something bigger. Will try to nail it down.

[Kobal2]

@Plan_B

If citizens of some other nations, or even some governments, chose to do something educational about democracy and free elections, I think that would’ve been pretty cool. Even though I voted for GWB I would have welcomed them, maybe even participated a bit.

Ah, yes, of course. So if say, Iran had “acted aggressively to help the people of the US overthrow” GWB and get Al Gore (or whoever) in the presidential seat, you would have welcomed it ?

Somehow, I doubt that.

[nameless]

I completely disagree that the United States should intervene here. If it can be shown conclusively that election fraud occurred, we should take all non-military means available to push Iran towards adopting the legitimately elected government, but given the circumstances surrounding our entry into the Iraq conflict, it would just reek of opportunism if we were to take serious action now.

Let whatever protests are in motion take their course; they sprung up organically. An Iran that comes to its own conclusions about what sort of government they are to have is one that will have higher affinity for our democracy than an Iran where we interfered with their governance unduly.

[MovieMogul]

Juan Cole:

Top Pieces of Evidence that the Iranian Presidential Election Was Stolen

1. It is claimed that Ahmadinejad won the city of Tabriz with 57%. His main opponent, Mir Hossein Mousavi, is an Azeri from Azerbaijan province, of which Tabriz is the capital. Mousavi, according to such polls as exist in Iran and widespread anecdotal evidence, did better in cities and is popular in Azerbaijan. Certainly, his rallies there were very well attended. So for an Azeri urban center to go so heavily for Ahmadinejad just makes no sense. In past elections, Azeris voted disproportionately for even minor presidential candidates who hailed from that province.

2. Ahmadinejad is claimed to have taken Tehran by over 50%. Again, he is not popular in the cities, even, as he claims, in the poor neighborhoods, in part because his policies have produced high inflation and high unemployment. That he should have won Tehran is so unlikely as to raise real questions about these numbers.

3. It is claimed that cleric Mehdi Karoubi, the other reformist candidate, received 320,000 votes, and that he did poorly in Iran’s western provinces, even losing in Luristan. He is a Lur and is popular in the west, including in Kurdistan. Karoubi received 17 percent of the vote in the first round of presidential elections in 2005. While it is possible that his support has substantially declined since then, it is hard to believe that he would get less than one percent of the vote. Moreover, he should have at least done well in the west, which he did not.

4. Mohsen Rezaie, who polled very badly and seems not to have been at all popular, is alleged to have received only 670,000 votes, twice as much as Karoubi.

5. Ahmadinejad’s numbers were fairly standard across Iran’s provinces. In past elections there have been substantial ethnic and provincial variations.

6. The Electoral Commission is supposed to wait three days before certifying the results of the election, at which point they are to inform Khamenei of the results, and he signs off on the process. The three-day delay is intended to allow charges of irregularities to be adjudicated. In this case, Khamenei immediately approved the alleged results.

But just as a first reaction, this post-election situation looks to me like a crime scene. And here is how I would reconstruct the crime.

As the real numbers started coming into the Interior Ministry late on Friday, it became clear that Mousavi was winning. Mousavi’s spokesman abroad, filmmaker Mohsen Makhbalbaf, alleges that the ministry even contacted Mousavi’s camp and said it would begin preparing the population for this victory.

The ministry must have informed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who has had a feud with Mousavi for over 30 years, who found this outcome unsupportable. And, apparently, he and other top leaders had been so confident of an Ahmadinejad win that they had made no contingency plans for what to do if he looked as though he would lose.

They therefore sent blanket instructions to the Electoral Commission to falsify the vote counts.

This clumsy cover-up then produced the incredible result of an Ahmadinejad landlside in Tabriz and Isfahan and Tehran.

The reason for which Rezaie and Karoubi had to be assigned such implausibly low totals was to make sure Ahmadinejad got over 51% of the vote and thus avoid a run-off between him and Mousavi next Friday, which would have given the Mousavi camp a chance to attempt to rally the public and forestall further tampering with the election.

This scenario accounts for all known anomalies and is consistent with what we know of the major players.

[gonzomax]

Can the Supreme Court hearing Mousavi v Ahmadinejad be far away?