What do you guys think about Iran?

Great Debates
1

Courageous Iranian reformers have staged a third day of protests against mullahs. So far, the reformers appear to be led by students at Tehran University and the protests have not spread to the Iranian masses. Nevertheless, the mullahs are threatening a crackdown, making me afraid that it might turn into a Tianenman Square-like situation.

I obviously oppose America getting involved militarily (which would be incredibly stupid). And based on their track record in the country, let’s not get the CIA involved.

But how can those of us who would dearly love to see the theocracy brought down offer real support and strength to the reformers? Apparently, radio broadcasts from exiled Iranians based in L.A. are helping stir the revolt.

What other things can be done? I’d love to hear from Anahita or others who are much closer to the situation than I am and who have a better idea of the Iranian mood than I do.

2

I wonder if they say the same thing about our college student revolts.

I guess money or equiptment to help publish pamphlets could help. As could non-traceable methods of communication.

3

What we’re seeing now is how democracies emerge - by the people taking charge of their own destiny. So far they’re doing fairly well, by the looks of things.

Can’t let outside support be too overt, though, or it’s an excuse for the mullahs to crack down on the demonstrators and stir up nationalism in their own support.

4

I think Iran needs to be liberated. Operation Iranian-Freedom anyone?

5

The power of the clergy in Iran is derived from the masses of Iranians who are, let’s face it, ignorant and have no idea what is the meaning of separation of mosque and state.

It is similar to the current administration in the U.S. whose staying power is maintained by a millions of Bible-belt individuals in mid-America having a foggiest idea what the US Foreign policy is, let alone what it is doing to the rest of the world and ultimately to the US itself.

If by reformers in Iran you mean President Khatami, at the end of the day, he is another Mullah who will continue to mingle mosque and state together. If not, he would be in the mosque in Qom right now, rather than in the presidential palace in Tehran.

If by reformers you mean a bunch of university students and so-called intellectuals, they do not stand a chance because they are in the minority compared to million of ignorant Iranian masses whose life dream is to make a pilgrimage to Mecca to become a Haji or go to Karbala in Iraq and become a Seyyed. If they stay in Iran, they probably continue to hit their back with chains or open their own skull with a machete once a year.

The current power base in the US will continue through the 2004 election because (1) It draws its power through a mass of ignorant Americans who go every 4 years to the poles and vote against their own self-interest, and (2) There is no viable alternative to George W Bush. If there was, we would have heard from him/her by now. We are 16 months away from the presidential election in the US. and I do not see any leader glowing against George Bush policies yet. It is getting rather late.

So it is with the reformists in Iran wanting to bring down the theocracy. What are they going to put in its place? Is there one prominent Iranian leader you can name who can mobilize the masses upon the fall of the theocracy? Remember. things can always go from bad to worse. Just as Iran went from the bad Shah to worse Khmeini, it can go from worse Khamanei to even worse General Idi Amin.

Hoping for a potential leader to emerge after the downfall of the clergy is as futile as hoping that the Democratic Party’s primaries in the US can produce someone that can beat Bush in November 2004.

As for Iran, any help by outside forces to overthrow the current regime will be interpreted by the masses as yet another American or British stooge placed at the top, even if the poor guy is better than Mossadegh.

I am afraid, the only solution to Iran’s problem is to let them rot under the current horrible clergy regime until the masses begin to wake up and develop political consciousness and maturity, gradually changing the system 50 to 100 years from now. Iran needs evolution, not another revolution.

The same with the US. It needs another 50 to 100 years until it reaches the political maturity of Europe where the judo/Christian religion groups play little or no part in democratic elections and the political process.

6

I’ve heard that France and Russia are supporting Iran, and that putting pressure on them would help the reform movement. I don’t know how true that is.

7

I think we need to give the inspectors more time.

Perhaps the UN can pressure the mullahs to reform.

8

WUC,Welcome to the SDMB.

I’m sure that someone more knowledgeable than I, (Tam Col et al), will be along to address some of the errors in your post.

9

Sorry, I just saw this. I’ll write a detailed opinion after I speak with some relatives there this evening.

I have nothing at all to say to WUC that Karma won’t handle for me.

10

I´ve read a bit about Iran´s situation and saw an unbiased program on Iran on TV a week ago; seems to me that things are not quite as bad as in other countries in the ME. Yes, there´s religious opression, but the way I saw things seem to be slowly vanishing; women using rather revealing chadors for example.

I agree with Wake Up Call that things will work out given enough time; but I don`t think it will take so long for it.
Tacit support from the outside is all that´s needed. IMO

11

“I think Iran needs to be liberated. Operation Iranian-Freedom anyone?”

You must be thinking of “Operation Iranian Liberation”

e.g. O.I.L.

Iran used to be Persia. My real name is Persian, now it’s Iranian. Swell. Just what I don’t need & so I’m always watching what we are going with Iran.

12

It would seem the masses are waking up and trying to effect change. It would also seem that at this point they are trying to effect change through evolution and not revolution. So far no one is shooting at each other.

IIRC Iran’s government is split. You have the ruling clergy and the ‘regular’ government. Someone else will have to fill in the specifics about how the power is divided over there. My point for bringing it up is that the clergy and the government already have had some friction. Mohammed Khatami (Iran’s president) seems reform minded. However, the clergy have real power so reforms are dicey.

In the end everyone does the political dance. Khatami has had what seem like mandates from the public when elections swayed sharply in the reformists favor and against the more conservative clergy. Nevertheless the clergy is still a real power to be reckoned with so the dance continues.

My guess is the clergy would love to squish the protestors. However, they also realize that the mood of the country is one of reform and they could martyr the protestors. The clergy wants to hold on to power but if they went too far such that a proper revolution was fomented against them they’d be the first against the wall. As such they must operate with care and hopefully that will leave enough of a toe-hold for reformers to continue their work.

13

originally posted by Wake Up Call

I couldn’t agree more. But if there was a sign of that political maturation, I’d say it was contained in the letter sent out by the reformists to the ruling uber-mullahs which stated the following:

link

There was also another letter sent out to the uber-mullahs from the parliament which stated that if the ruling hardline clergy does not adopt reforms, they will face the same fate as the last regime.

Considering that any letter like that under the Pahlavi regime meant a guaranteed visit by SAVAK, with the signatories of the letter being “permanently transferred to…some other location” whereas today, they are in open defiance, I’d say Iran is slowly maturing politically.

Now all they need are some gung ho rednecks to come in and “liberate” them just to make sure all their effort, much like in the days of Mossadegh, are squandered.

14

While I’m compiling a FACTUAL and thoughtful post, I thought I’d just say CITE??? I’m just wondering where you got this machete idea from?

15

Anahita, I just E-mailed you a picture to your address anahita444@hotmail.com. It clearly shows where I got the machete idea from. If I knew how to post the picture here at SDMB forum, I would do it for everyone to see.

Obviously there are couple of things you are either unaware, or you don’t want to admit.

1- There is such a thing in Iran called the month of Mohharam. During that month, there are two days called Taassooaa and Aashooraa. During those two days, throughout the entire country, people walk through the streets and hit themselves with chains and use machete to hit their own skull, with blood pouring out of their skull as shown in the picture I just E-mailed you.

2- I got that picture from www.Iranian.com Have you checked that cite? Unlike you, who probably likes to paint a picture of Iran which is not real, Iranian.com says it and shows it as it is. Come on Anahita, the country is infested with vigilantes, thugs (Chaaghookesh, in Farsi). The Shah’s SAVAK used to bus load them to disperse the dissidents. The Ayatollah is using them to do the same today. And, most probably, the next leader of Iran will continue to use them. Iran does not need a bunch of American rednecks to come and “liberate” them. They have enough Chaaghookesh of their own.

Finally, if you can read Farsi, simply go to Google and search for “Moharam”, and read what the Shiats are supposed to do in memory of the death of Imam Hossein during the month of Moharam.

16

Hmmm…No, most analyses I have read tend to indicate that the regime is backed strongly by two groups in particular - The urban lumpen proletariat and the bazaaris ( functionally, though not precisely analogous to, lower middle class businessman ). Meanwhile the primary oposition comes from the professional middle class and urban intelligentsia ( a highly overlapping group ). Presumably we can lump in the tattered remnants of the old privileged class ( a lot of them overseas now ) and of course various minority groups ( some actively separtist, so in a slightly different category ) into the opposition camp as well.

However insomuch as the young ( and Iran is now very young demographically ) and female vote seems to have turned overwhelmingly in favor of the reformers and even the pious bazaaris are torn by the continued stagnation of the economy, the majority seems to have turned against the regime.

That the regime maintains its stranglehold, has less do to popular support ( of which it has some ), than the constitutional straightjacket Khomeini’s allies bull-rushed through, giving so much authority, both direct and indirect, to the faqih.

At any rate, I think you do the overall sophistication of the Iranians a disservice. They are far less religiously parochial than the population of many neighboring countries.

True. But he is far less reactionary than the current ruling clique. Not all clerics, even the political ones, are the same.

If evolutionary change is your bag, Khatami is not a bad place to start.

Well, again, I dispute the masses argument.

And a Sayyid in Shi’a terms has to be a blood descendant of Muhammed - I don’t think most meet that qualification ;).

A minority practice and one, anyway, that doesn’t have much bearing on the political discussion.

I agree.

Mostly agree here as well. Except I think many among the masses are more aware than you seem to. And I doubt it will take 50 years.

  • Tamerlane
17

To amplify on Tamerlane’s comments (and ignoring our new blatherer):

It is a fundamental analytical error to see the situation in Iran as “Mullahs” versus “The People.”

First there is a substantial althouhg possibly minority faction of the clerical establishment in Iran that favors the traditional role of the Shiite clergy, advisors to power, preachers, but not rulers. That is the traditional view that held for a thousand years until Khomieni adopted the new radical thinkers, largely not of the traditional clerical establishment, views on an Islamic state.

Second, as Tamerlane has noted, there are substantial bodies of support for the hard liners. Characterizing it as all ignorance strikes me as cheap and lazy thinking. Certainly rural support is somewhat reflexive and perhaps ignorant, but as Tamerlane noted, segments of the pious 'bazari" or traditional merchant classes, as well as those segments of the new apparatchikis of the Islamic state have vested interests in the Khomieni state, and being older cna recall of course the old Shah system, which in many ways was arguably more repressive than the Islamic Revolutionary state political areas.

All in all the Iranian state is in a highly transitional phase, and I personally believe that outside pressure at this time gives more power to the “new traditionalists” than the reformers. Look at how Americans react to outside criticism of their system, in majority and I believe it is easy to understand the rather natural human reaction of rally round the flag.

18

**

Excuse me Collunsbury. There is such a thing as the fall of the Great Empires. Yours and Tamerline Empires on this board are going to fall because this new “blatherer” just arrived on the scene. Your shop is going to be closed soon for the following reasons:

1- I have taken the pain of reading everything you and Tamerline have posted to-date on SDMB. Oh boy, Collunsburry, you must have broken the record in this Message Board for the number of viewers and participants. So did Mohamad, Jesus, Moses, and Buddah (not on the Internet). And we all know what game those egocentric fuckers were up to. Look at the world today. Do you really want people to bow down and pray to the intelligence of Collunsburry and Tamweline as if they were the Jesus, Mohamad, and Buddha of today?

2- There is no question about the fact that both you and Tamerline have studied the Middle East in some detail. For that, I would like to congratulate both of you, because not many people have the time nor the patience to dig into that culture as much as you two appear to have done. But, please accept the fact that you are no authority on the subject, even though your fans think you are.

3- I spent 9 years of my educational life in England all the way to the Masters degree there. One thing I learnt about the English was that they can go on for hours talking about a subject. But at the end of the day, it was a lot of words with little substance. And so it is with you, Collunsbury and Tamerline. You baffle your audience with a lot of words, dazzling them into thinking that you know what you are talking about.

4- Let’s take Collunsbury’s statements of today:

That is the traditional view that held for a thousand years until Khomieni adopted the new radical thinkers, largely not of the traditional clerical establishment, views on an Islamic state.

What the fuck are you talking about?

** … and being older cna recall of course the old Shah system, which in many ways was arguably more repressive than the Islamic Revolutionary state political areas. **

… and what the fuck that means?
Frankly, I think Collunsbury basically agrees with my point of view, but he does not want to bring himself down to the level of this “blatherer” lest him lose his position on this board as the “Supreme Leader”.

19

I could understand misspellings such as “Tamburlane”, “Timurlane” or “Timurlenk”.

But “Tamerline”? “Tamweline”?

How much middle east history do you actually know?

20

Oh, no! My precious empire!

Well, at least you recognized they are, in fact, separate empires - I acknowlege no co-rulers, by god! I’ll settle for nothing less than sole mastery over all I survey!

Everything? Just now? Wow. You must have been pretty bored.

Well, I can’t speak for my rival for imperial dominion, but I want people to worship me regardless of my intelligence or lack thereof - My very existence should be more than enough motivation for the likes of you plebes.

Actually, just speaking for myself, I don’t recall ever explictly claiming to be an authority or the final word on anything. I’ve just taken the time to read a few books and journals most have not and I like to share ( or listen to myself talk - it’s amounts to the same thing ).

That said, it is correct to say I am THE authority - Over all I survey!

Really, now? Must have been doubly painful reading through all those posts, then. You have my utmost sympathies for the angst that must have engendered.

Just out of curiosity, since when did Collounsbury and I become a unit in your mind? I mean, I know we agree on a lot of stuff and post in many of the same threads, but we aren’t exactly dating ;). And I didn’t call you a blatherer, now did I?

But anyway, have fun crusading against our corrupt, decaying ancien regimes. Everyone should have a hobby :).

  • Tamerlane