A damn interesting chart. [ed. Interactive gas price chart by location]

[bonitahi]

Cool. Thanks.

[XT]

@amarinth

Looking at the charts (for my area), prices are actually lower in the summer than they are in May. So. No.

Well…maybe the gods like you?

-XT

[Little_Nemo]

Looking at the charts (for my area), prices are actually lower in the summer than they are in May. So. No.

“There was just one little flaw with your plan to get me to go out when the sun is shining, Oilfinger. You forgot - I live in Seattle.”
“Curses! Foiled again!”

[gonzomax]

Strange how people stick to childish misconceptions. OPEC and the oil companies have stated demand has little or nothing to do with prices now. But some obdurate types fight enlightenment even if given by the producers themselves.

[John_Mace]

@gonzomax

Strange how people stick to childish misconceptions. OPEC and the oil companies have stated demand has little or nothing to do with prices now.

Could we have a cite that “oil companies” have said price and demand aren’t related? As for OPEC, please. I wouldn’t believe them either way-- they certainly aren’t an unbiased source.

[gonzomax]

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2008-04/21/content_6630888.htm Heres a nice OPEC cite.

[gonzomax]

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2008-04/21/content_6630888.htm Heres a nice OPEC cite.

[gonzomax]

http://www.reason.com/news/show/125414.html Heres a nice analysis putting the blame on the mismanaged US economy and the falling dollar. Same thing ,I know. But clearly not a demand problem.

[XT]

Since gonzo is incapable of actually posting anything from his drive by cites I’ll take the liberty for him:

“Oil prices, there is a common understanding that has nothing to do with supply and demand,” al-Badri said on the sidelines of an energy conference in Rome.

Oil prices reached a new high Friday at $117 a barrel.

A host of supply and demand concerns in the US and abroad, along with the dollar’s weakness, have served to support prices, even as record retail gasoline prices in the US appear to be dampening demand. Crude prices have risen as much as 4 percent last week.

The OPEC chief said the Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries “will not hesitate” to increase production if the group thought the higher prices were due to shortages. But he said more oil will not solve the high prices.

OPEC’s production levels were just one of many factors, he said.

“But how much higher it will go, of course it depends on a number of things: the political situation, whether there is a natural catastrophe, whether there are speculations in the market, whether there are strikes in certain producing countries. So there are many other factors other than OPEC production,” al-Badri said.

I’m sure it will shock everyone that this cite of his doesn’t actually relate to the question asked him or his earlier assertion:

@John Mace

Could we have a cite that “oil companies” have said price and demand aren’t related? As for OPEC, please. I wouldn’t believe them either way-- they certainly aren’t an unbiased source.

@gonzomax

Strange how people stick to childish misconceptions. OPEC and the oil companies have stated demand has little or nothing to do with prices now. But some obdurate types fight enlightenment even if given by the producers themselves.

My emphasis. Strange that people who haven’t got a clue how things work like to attempt to call others childish…

-XT

[XT]

@gonzomax

Heres a nice analysis putting the blame on the mismanaged US economy and the falling dollar. Same thing ,I know. But clearly not a demand problem.

You know gonzo, you should really try READING the articles for comprehension. I give up trying to actually get you to do more than provide a drive by link and expect us to figure out what the fuck your point it…apparently the concept is beyond you.

So supply is up; relative demand is down and yet, the price of oil is soaring. What’s going on? Last week, Exxon Mobil CEO Rex Tillerson blamed a third of the recent run up in oil prices on the weak dollar, another third on geopolitical uncertainty, and the rest on market speculation.

Let’s start with geopolitical uncertainties. Last year, oil consumers watched warily as unrest in Nigeria’s oil fields, the possibility of war between the U.S. and Iran, and the antics of Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez threatened to disrupt oil supplies. That analysis may have once made sense, but most of those tensions have abated in recent months. Nevertheless, it remains true that most of the world’s oil is produced in volatile regions and by erratic governments, so the price of crude must still include some kind of political risk premium.

What effect does the falling dollar have on the price of crude? Most oil price contracts are denominated in dollars. The dollar has fallen in value by more than 30 percent against a Federal Reserve index of major currencies since 2002. This means that the price of imports, including oil, have gone up. To some extent, the chief of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Chakib Khelil was correct when he said earlier this week, “What’s happening in the oil market is due to the mismanagement of the U.S. economy.” Continuing U.S. trade and fiscal deficits along with lower interest rates are stoking inflationary fears.

That brings us to speculation. Evans observes that since September 2003, the total number of open crude oil futures and options contracts rose by 364 percent. Meanwhile the global demand for petroleum rose by just 8.2 percent. “So the futures and options market has become more important than the physical supplies in driving the price,” concludes Evans. “We are seeing investment flows into the oil market that don’t have anything to do with the demand and supply of oil.”

Investors are treating oil as a hedge against inflation and a falling dollar. Oil markets are part of a negative positive feedback loop in which higher oil prices contribute to higher inflation, which in turn lowers the value of the dollar, which boosts oil prices, and so forth. In other words, the oil market is coming to resemble the gold market (which has also been soaring). Evans notes that most gold traders don’t even ask the question of how much gold was mined last year or how much spare gold mining capacity there is.

So what will happen to oil prices over the next few years? No one is predicting $10 per barrel oil. However, once the current bubble bursts, both Evans and Lynch believe that the price of crude will settle at around $60 to $70 per barrel in the next couple of years. “It’s very hard to pinpoint just how long a bubble can expand before it breaks. Getting the timing right is not an easy matter,” says Evans. But he adds, “I think that this is the riskiest time to be long in crude oil since 1980.”

I have no idea how reliable this source is…some of this seems pretty speculative, and some of it is definitely wacked. However, the key here is…IT DOESN’T SAY ANYTHING CLOSE TO WHAT YOU CLAIM IT SAYS!!

Good grief…RTFA and then post the bits you think are relevant to whatever point you are trying to make. How hard is that? Perhaps if you actually read the article and then post quotes from it you’ll figure out that it isn’t saying what you THINK it’s saying.

-XT

[John_Mace]

@gonzomax

http://www.reason.com/news/show/125414.html Heres a nice analysis putting the blame on the mismanaged US economy and the falling dollar. Same thing ,I know. But clearly not a demand problem.

The US economy is not “managed”, so it can’t be “mismanaged”.

[NurseCarmen]

Ugh. Why can’t this thread die. Can I admit that I had consumed more than a few beers when I thought the graph interesting?

[XT]

Only if those beers are Guinness…and only if you promise to share!

-XT

[John_Mace]

@NurseCarmen

Ugh. Why can’t this thread die. Can I admit that I had consumed more than a few beers when I thought the graph interesting?

I’ll drink to that!

[Renob]

@NurseCarmen

Ugh. Why can’t this thread die. Can I admit that I had consumed more than a few beers when I thought the graph interesting?

Sorry, but we can’t let this thread die until it at least reaches the epic trainwreck proportions of this similar thread: $2.00 Gas Coming? - Great Debates - Straight Dope Message Board

[gonzomax]

@John Mace

The US economy is not “managed”, so it can’t be “mismanaged”.

You joke. There are no rules ,no regulations. there is nobody lowering and raising prime interest rates?. There is just an interesting hodge podge . OK No matter who is president or who controls the house and senate. They just don’t matt5er. Whew.

[ShibbOleth]

@gonzomax

You joke. There are no rules ,no regulations. there is nobody lowering and raising prime interest rates?. There is just an interesting hodge podge . OK No matter who is president or who controls the house and senate. They just don’t matt5er. Whew.

All true. There is also no one controlling the money supply, signing or approving trade agreements, setting tax rates, enforcing environmental policy, etc. This is clearly why no business has ever contributed to a campaign at the local, state or federal level, since there is nothing that could impact the economy or the business environment. Which in turn keeps our democracy pure. It’s all quite simple, actually.