Gas prices always changing

I don’t know if this has been asked before…
or if it’s just a simple supply and demand answer…

But why does the price of gas fluctuate so often?

I mean I can understand that OPEC changing the barrel prices… but why would it affect the prices of gas already in the tanks of the gas station?
And why does it fluctuate by 10 cents (in Canada) from day to day?

I’ve noticed that when the gas price is low like 67 cents/liter that the gas stations run out of gas… now if they knew that they would run out of gas… why the low price?.. shouldn’t they keep the price high? if gas runs out because more people pump gas… why lower the price that low in the first place?

is it some sick joke that the gas oligopy play each day?

What are the reasons for the drastic price changes daily?

In the US anyway, the price of gas is dependent on a number of different factors… all acting at the same time.

Supply and demand of course, especially during peak driving holiday periods (they always raise prices before certain holidays), local production issues (in California we have our own specially formulated gas (lucky us), and sometimes if a single refinery is down it can drastically effect the price), local competition with other stations in the area can also dramatically effect the price, at least temporarily (gas price wars).

I think what OPEC does impacts the price too. When OPEC even suggests reducing the supply and therefore raising the price of a barrel of oil it seems the price jumps up… BEFORE the price is even raised! And of course, when OPEC has a glut of oil on the market the price slowly begins to go down again.

And let’s not forget the greed of the oil companies. Keep in mind that they can charge whatever price the “traffic will bare”.

The price of gas is determined solely by supply and demand. Better information systems have allowed gas companies to perform more frequent economic analyses than in the past. This results in more frequent (and more accurate) price changes. As an example, if a gas company learns demand for gas is heavier on Friday vs. Tuesday for a given station, then Tuesday’s price will be lower than Friday’s price.

BTW: It is good the gas companies are doing this.

:rolleyes: Of course they’re selling it at whatever the market will bear. Do you have a better system in mind?

I noticed that in the UK while petrol is much more expensive than in the US the price seems almost to be “fixed”. All the stations charge about the same price, almost everywhere in the country, and it doesn’t seem to fluctuate much.

Is that really the case UK’ers or did it just seem so…

If you owned a gas station, this would probably read “they always want more gas during certain holidays.”

As opposed to, say, homeowners, who always sell their homes at a price based on what they paid, as opposed to letting the local housing market determine their asking price.

Could the gas sold at stations be considered as an ultimate spot market?

Petroleum is used in a variety of ways, and I would assume that most industrial/large scale consumers buy what they need by contract to establish a stable price. Pump gas, on the other hand, is always bought at the price that it is trading for on the day of purchase. Do prices at the pump fluctuate so much because there is no other place in the market to adjust price for changes in supply?

Regarding the “they have powerful systems to track demand…”
well in Toronto… Monday night is almost always the lowest in gas price. Tuesday morning the price goes up 10 cents /liter from 67 cents to 77 cents.
Now most people know this… so almost everyone waits for that Monday to fill gas…

Tuesday is empty… Most other days people don’t fill gas…

Now why is it that they don’t make Monday night the most expensive to scatter the demand? Why is it still priced that way?

Also, why do smaller gas stations tend to have set prices generally the median of the 2 extremes at major gas stations?

What would be the negative implications of major gas stations having the gas price set at 72 cents for a month?.. People will pump gas on any day? People will pump less gas?.. lose out to smaller gas companies?.. It’s no fun?

Petroleum is the most heavily traded commodity in the world so I would think the price would go up and down.

I believe coffee is second, but it’s price doesn’t vary as much, but then it is not as heavily taxed and regulated nor is it likely that nations will go to war over it.

Although if I hadn’t been able to drink mine this morning …

Every time some posts a Q about “How come prices for x behave like y.” You get a string of “supply and demand” responses.

These answers are substantially less than helpful. The pricing of most consumer products are a dark and deep mystery. Business PhDs have studied it for decades, done analysis, queried executives, etc. and have come to the conclusion that no one really knows for sure! It’s pretty much all guess work. Sure, they all have spreadsheets on their laptops and all, but there’s a lot of what-if/maybes, projected sales vs reality, etc. There are classic cases studied at the good B-schools where a company raised its prices and demand went up! Everybody always predicts profits for their next latest products, very few actually succeed.

And in the particular case of oil we can rule out supply and demand for most fluctuations. There’s still plenty of oil, as much can flow to run a lot more than the current world economy. But some people don’t want that to happen. They charge more, etc. A very few companies and countries control a large fraction of supply. They decide the price. Supply and demand haven’t seriously changed in recent years.

The rises in the last couple months have been due to the falling US dollar. The Saudis are taking in less money as a result. This made them unhappy so they raised prices. No change in supply. No change in demand.

Now the OP was asking about fast retail price variations. Once there is a change in the wholesale price, people hit their spreadsheets and start figuring out how much to charge at what level. Since it’s mostly guesswork, some people guess high, some guess low. People realize they made mistakes, fix errors. Prices are bouncing all over the place for a bit. It’s not rocket science. There are whole segments of the market who try to exploit such changes for financial gain, hoping to be smarter than the people who actually need to buy and sell oil.

“Supply and demand” is a knee jerk reaction that has little to do with real world prices.

Ya know … if this was my post, I’d put it in the Pit…

I don’t give a shit what anyone says. It’s not supply and demand. It’s price fixing. The prices are fixed and on consignment. Don’t tell me from one day to the next it goes up by ¢9 (CAD) per liter in a day. That’s ¢26 (USD) per gallon. I’m sorry. I don’t buy it.

Just so happens that the price goes up on Thursday when most people get paid? Just so happens that the price goes up before a big holiday? Supply and demand my ass. I think not, my friends. Until the gas is sold to you, it’s on consignment. It was “in the ground” at your gas station way before Thursday and way before Easter.

And if it’s not “price fixing”, explain to me how every gas station within kilometers has their gas at the same price to the POINT CENT. You’re telling me that “the big gas truck” filled up ALL of the stations on the SAME DAY ~ therefore they ALL sell it at the same price?

Bullshit.

To the extent that the change in “prices” has been due solely to changing currency values, there in fact have not been price changes.
The cost of gasoline expressed in US dollars may have changed, but when the price of US dollars relative to everything else has gone down, you can’t be certain that the actual price of gasoline has gone up.

Since gas prices in the UK are OVERWHELMINGLY composed of tax, not the product cost, the price of the largest component going into a liter of UK petrol is in fact fixed. Taxes on gasoline are substantial everywhere I know of, except for certain OPEC member countries, but UK gas taxes are waaaaaaaay higher than in the US.

Footnote 1: Tax and duties make up around 75 percent of the price of petrol and diesel at the pump, depending on the grade of fuel. [UK Cite]
http://www.wsws.org/articles/2000/sep2000/oil-s12_prn.shtml
Footnote 2:

You seem to be saying that in fact the price does go up that much in a day. No one is saying that the gas sitting in the station’s tank goes up in cost. It’s simply the gas station seeking to maximize its profit and judging that demand will support the price increase. What sense would it make for the owner to say “Until I have to re-fill my underground tank, my price is fixed - why would I want to consider what people are willing to pay?”

It doesn’t “just so happen”. It happens because the gas station owner knows the pattern of demand, and sets his prices accordingly. Drop the idea that the price he asks is directly related to his cost. Consider that he can charge what he likes, and will tend to want to maximize his profit.

Dunno how it works in Canada - this is never the case where I live. In a 20-minute drive today, I saw per-gallon prices (for regular gas) from 1.589 to 1.789.

As you point out, an international cartel excercises a significant measure of control on a significant part of the world supply. But it would be wrong to imply that their pricing decisions do not take supply and demand into account. If this were not so, there would be no reason for them not to set the price at $200/bbl.

In other words, prices get adjusted until supply lines up with demand (or demand with supply - same thing).

Sorry Xena … looks pretty cold cut to me in this pie chart (which is also stuck on every gas pump around town):

Petro Canada’s Understanding Gas Prices

Pretty clear cut that the profit is 2%.

Nobody controls energy prices. OPEC can and does influence prices. But OPEC hardly knows solidarity; some of it’s members are notorious cheaters on production allocations. The overwhelming majority of wells drilled in this country (U.S.) are drilled by independents who can’t do diddily about the price.

And the oil and gas industry is composed of internal markets that compete with each other. When the market is tight, refiners and pipelines must pay more to producers for their feedstocks. If the price of their feedstocks are high, then the price of their products will reflect that. As prices increase, demand on infrastructure may increase (but not always - see below) and you may have a situation such as existed a couple of years ago. Demand increased to the point where you could not get a rig on less than about four months notice, and the rig rates had increased to a point that a well that seemed economically feasible in 1998 was not in 2001. So that well didn’t get drilled in 2001. Rig rates were too high because the rig fleet had shrunk after the drop in North American drilling that led to the historic low of 488 rigs working in April of 1998. By contrast, there were ~4500 rigs working in North America in 1981, and the rig rate has been stagnant at ~1100 recently. So, while they could, the drilling companies charged the exploration and production companies more than some could see paying.

Was demand for energy high in 1998? Sure it was. That was during the days of the dot.com boom and the high-rolling days of Enron and WorldCom and the like. While we later saw the mythical proportions of that economy, at the time investor dollars were hard to direct away from that market towards drilling.

Seismic crew activity is a leading indicator in the oil and gas industry, and it’s not a pretty picture right now; although there are signs of recovery. There are probably about 20 seismic crews operating in North America right now. Once again, by contrast, there were ~750 working in 1981 and ~100 in 1994. Guess what? Exploration companies are finding that new seismic data acquisition costs can be rather high. Too high to do some things, in fact.

While OPEC does attempt to influence prices, and their effect is mostly at the margins, they have gone both ways historically. That is to say that they have both attempted to raise the price as well as lower the price. Almost everybody in the energy business understands that if runaway prices get too high, it stifles economic activity, and that is ultimately good for no one. But all OPEC can do is beat around the edges.

To think that anyone controls the price of oil and gas is to wholly misunderstand the energy market.

And to think that supply and demand are not an integral part of that market is equally misguided.

I’ve often thought that the above described misconceptions stem from both a failure to grasp some economic fundamentals as well as the apparently widely held perception that the energy business is some kind of monolithic entity with uniform goals that deliver common rewards. It’s not. It’s like any other business with thousands of competing interests.

As well, it’s interesting to note that the price of gasoline is positively cheap if you compare it over 10 or 20 years to any other consumer product. Unadjusted for inflation, the 20 year average price in this country is $1.46/gallon. That’s unadjusted for inflation.

That’s Petro Canada’s profit, averaged over a year. It doesn’t say much about short term price fluctuations, or the retailer’s cut (which no doubt is in that 17% slice labeled “Refining and Marketing costs”).

No business on the planet has as its primary goal to balance supply and demand. Their #1 goal is always to make more money. To make more money they may need to raise prices, lower prices, increase supply, decrease supply, whatever. Mistakes are made all the time. Your goal is to make fewer mistakes then the other folks. (Maybe there’s supply and demand for mistakes???)

And deciding what to do to make more money has stumped most of them.

Little day to day variations at your local gas station is just the owner’s way of trying to make more money. Some of it has to do with how much the wholesaler is charging. Some has to do with how much the guy on the other corner is charging. There’s amortization of costs, whether the Big Game jackpot is big enough to draw in a lot of customers, and on and on. Many are willing to take short term losses for long term benefits. Gas high today? Well, he’s gotta make back those short term losses. Seems he goofed up last month on how many people were going to fill up on premium. And so it goes.