A majority of minorities in the U.S.

Factual Questions
1

I have a question which you guys can try to answer, but, Cecil, if you’re reading this, perhaps you can answer this in your column.

Several times I have read the claim that “by 2050, the majority of Americans will belong to minority groups”. What course in Demography for Idiots did the person making that claim take? I can’t get the numbers to fit that claim no matter how generous I am in accepting the assumptions of the people who make that claim.

Currently, the population distribution of the U.S. is as follows:

White Non-Hispanic: 200 million (74%)
Black: 32 million (12%)
White Hispanic: 27 million (10%)
Asian: 8 million (3%)
American Indian: 4 million (1%)

Even under the most generous assumptions about immigration and birth rate, I can’t get the population distribution to be much different from the following in 2100:

White Non-Hispanic: 210 million (58%)
Black: 37 million (10%)
White Hispanic: 82 million (23%)
Asian: 28 million (8%)
American Indian: 5 million (1%)

This assumes that the white non-Hispanic population will only grow by birth and immigration by 5% over the next 100 years. It assumes a somewhat higher growth in the black population and American Indian population. It assumes that the number of white Hispanics will grow by half a million a year because of immigration and a higher birth rate than other groups. It assumes that the number of Asians will grow by 200,000 a year by birth and immigration. Does anybody have more exact information that contradicts my basic claims?

In any case, even getting this much change in the distribution of ethnic groups in the U.S. requires one to make some dubious assumptions. You have to assume that the numbers and proportions of immigrants will continue for the next 100 years the same as it is this year. Given that the numbers and proportions this year are wildly different from those of, say, forty years ago, why should we be so sure what they will be 100 years from now?

Furthermore, it assumes that we will think of these as being the “natural” ways of dividing people up into ethnic groups by 2100. Look at what the Americans of the year 1900 worried about when they complained about immigration. They complained about there being so many southern and eastern Europeans among the recent immigrants. They were worried that northern European groups would be overwhelmed by these new groups.

Finally, it assumes that anybody will still care that much about racial groupings in 2100. Given the increasing proportion of interracial and interethnic marriages, how many people of pure ancestry will there be in 2100 to worry about such things?

2

I’ve heard statistics like this, too, and never bothered to look into them until reading your post. I suppose once the census results are all in we will get some new calculations, but the government’s predictions are not far from your own:
Non-hispanic white – 53%
Hispanic – 22%
Black – 15%
Asian & other – 10%

These are from the Minority Business Development Agency:
http://www.mbda.gov/Emerging_Markets/page1.html

3

Well, let’s see:

Using demographic info from [url=“www.census.gov”], we come up with the following:

Population growth from 1990-1994 (the most recent numbers I found):

White, non-Hispanic: 4,223,000 (2.2% growth)
Hispanic: 3,781,000 (16.89% growth)
Black: 1,906,000 (6.5%)
Indian: 112,000 (6.2%)
Asian: 1,515,000 (21.65%)

If we assume that the populations continue to grow at these percentages every 4 years, we can extrapolate the 1998 population to be:

White: 192,538,000 x 1.022 = 196,773,000
Hisp.: 26,160,000 x 1.1689 = 30,578,000
Black: 31,210,000 x. 1.065 = 33,238,000
Indian: 1,909,000 x. 1.062 = 2,027,000
Asian: 8,511,000 x 1.2165 = 10,353,000

Thus, in just 4 years, whites have lost 3% in population to minorities. Running the numbers from 1998-2002 at the same percentage increase:

Whites: 201,102,000
Hisp.: 35,742,000
Black: 35,398,000
Indian: 2,152,000
Asian: 12,594,000
Pecentage white: 70%

From 2002-2004:

Whites: 205,526,000
Hisp.: 41,778,000
Black: 37,698,000
Indian: 2,284,000
Asian: 15,320,000
Percentage white: 67%

From 2004-008:

White: 209,636,000
Hisp: 48,834,000
Black: 40,148,000
Indian: 2,432,000
Asian: 18,636,000
Percentage white: 65%

From 2008-2012:
White: 214,217,000
Hisp: 57,082,000
Black: 42,757,000
Indian: 2,577,000
Asian: 22,549,000
Percentage white: 63%

And so on. If we assume a steady decline of about 2% of white population every year, we’ll reach a situation where whites have a plurality by about 2036 or so. Moreover, these figures don’t even assume that minority immigration rates will increase over this time period, although they likely will.

4

I apparently coded my link wrong. My numbers came from the census department.

And looking back, I notice that they do have figures from 1995-2000, and my projected 1998 numbers are more or less in the ballpark with the actual numbers.

5

O.K., I see the assumptions it would be necessary to make. Given that the present numbers are as follows:

White Non-Hispanic: 196,465,000
Black: 35,164,000
White Hispanic: 29,239,000
Asian: 11,047,000
American Indian: 2,422,000

and if you assume that the increase will be at the following rates (for every four years) for a long time:

White Non-Hispanic: 2.2%
Black: 6.5%
White Hispanic: 16.89%
Asian: 21.65%
American Indian: 6.2%

then indeed the figures will be the following in 2036:

White Non-Hispanic: 238,970,000
Black: 61,979,000
White Hispanic: 119,113,000
Asian: 64,455,000
American Indian: 4,162,000

This still assumes that immigration will continue at the same rate and proportion as before and that birth rates will continue at the same rate as before. Both of these assumptions seem unlikely to me.

6

And if you want to see what life in an area without an absolute majority of the population in one ethnic group is like, come visit the Greater Toronto Area.

Rigardu, kaj vi ekvidos.

7

Actually, given that Hispanic immigration (both legal and undocumented) has been increasing steadily over the last 40 years, one wonders if the rate of increase for that group won’t continue to increase, accelerating the growth of that minority. Continued economic disparity between the U.S. and Mexico/Central America seems likely to keep the immigration flow going.

8

With an increase in minority population there will also be a large increase in so called inter-racial relationships. Most people I know who have a white parent and a Hispanic parent claim the Hispanic heritage. This could add significantly to the population of those minorities.