A Million Poor Young Black Men in Jail

[Sage_Rat]

There was a theory that starting in the 90s or so, a massive crime wave would hit the US. 80s movies like RoboCop and Escape from New York were possibly based on this idea that an increasing crime rate was just going to keep climbing. But, as it happened, the overall crime rate began to decline starting around 1990.

A theory for this happening is that the legality of abortion, being utilized principally by poor women, made the next generation of criminals simply never be born.

I would, however, note these two graphs:

http://ag.ca.gov/cjsc/glance/graphics/13incarAJ.gif
http://www.visualstatistics.net/East-West/Incarceration/Inset.jpg (lists whole numbers rather than per capita)

The total number of criminals in jail began climbing previous to the 80s and climbed at an impressive rate up until ~1990. The total number of people currently incarcerated in the US is unprecedented in the world. Personally, I suspect that this probably due to the prevalence of three strikes laws (introduced during the 90s).

While it’s plausible that abortion may have halted some number of probable criminals from being born, it’s quite likely that those who were committed their crimes and subsequently got locked up forever, before being able to complete their personal total possible output of criminal behavior.

Just to point out that we’re not kidding with ourselves, it’s worth noting that we are talking principally about poor, younger black men. While there is certainly no genetic link between race and criminality, there almost certainly are shared social experiences or family-trained behavior that can make a child more likely to become a criminal. Poor starving Mexicans pack in twenty to a room and work their butts off where poor black Americans figure that they have no future via gainful employment and so turn to crime. Poverty is, certainly, a large predictor of crime, but unfortunately race is as well.

There are 221.3 million whites, 44.3 million Hispanic or Latino, and 40.9 black or African-American people in the US. 8.2% of whites are living in poverty (18.1 million), 21.5% of Hispanics (9.5 million), and 24.5% of blacks (10 million). From this, you would expect that incarceration rates would be roughly equal between blacks and hispanics, with whites being 1.8X more prevalent than either of these two groups. In truth, blacks have a slightly higher rate of incarceration than whites (perhaps 1.1X) and a significantly greater rate than hispanics–nearly triple. I could see some argument that police prefer to pursue blacks than whites, but I wouldn’t imagine they would avoid Latinos. So like I said, it is probable that the shared condition of being a poor black person in the US and the sort of parent-to-child conditioning leads to higher crime among this area of society.

Now, assuming that no one has any particular qualms with what I have said, the main question I would like to ask is whether it could be that the massive, long-term incarceration of the criminal class of young, black men could be the greatest boon to the social climb of blacks and African Americans in the US (for instance, being able to more quickly attain an even poverty and incarceration rate as whites)? If these men aren’t able to have children and raise families, then they won’t be able to pass on the sort of training that they received which lead them to a life of crime. And being, most likely, the poorest of the poor, by simply removing them from the population, you are in some respect raising the entire economic status of an entire group of people. With only about 40 million black people in the US, removing a million people from the general population is a fairly significant occurrence. What can we expect from this?

SOURCES
http://ag.ca.gov/cjsc/glance/graphics/13incarAJ.gif
http://www.visualstatistics.net/East-West/Incarceration/Inset.jpg

Poverty

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Demographics of the United States | Race and ethnicity

[Randy_Seltzer]

Ignoring the more controversial aspects of the OP, and just addressing the argument itself, there seem to be two unstated premises that are not true:

1. A typical term of incarceration is long enough to effectively “remove the person from the population” and prevent him from having children.
2. Criminal behavior is learned from a parent.

First, I’m not going to look up statistics, but I’d guess an average prison sentence is somewhere around 18 months. Even if a typical criminal spends twenty years in jail between the ages of 20 and 50, he will still be out on the street between jail stints long enough to father children.

Second, I believe that current sociological theory holds that the lack of a father figure is a better predictor of criminal behavior than the existence of an anti-social father figure.

[msmith537]

@Sage_Rat

…whether it could be that the massive, long-term incarceration of the criminal class of young, black men could be the greatest boon to the social climb of blacks and African Americans in the US (for instance, being able to more quickly attain an even poverty and incarceration rate as whites)? If these men aren’t able to have children and raise families, then they won’t be able to pass on the sort of training that they received which lead them to a life of crime. And being, most likely, the poorest of the poor, by simply removing them from the population, you are in some respect raising the entire economic status of an entire group of people. With only about 40 million black people in the US, removing a million people from the general population is a fairly significant occurrence. What can we expect from this?

The short answer is no. The flaw in your reasoning is that these angry Black men are not being locked up for the duration of their life (not that they should be generally). And their incarceration is not mutually exclusive of them having offspring. It is part of what they call the “cycle of poverty”. Black kids grow up in an imporverished community where there are few positive roll models and little opportunity for upward mobility. Frequently their fathers are dead, absent or in jail. These kids grow up, start to get into trouble and find themselves in and out of the justice system. They frequently knock up some young woman at some point and the cycle perpetuates itself.

[Wesley_Clark]

A major flaw with your argument is that young men (of all races) act like assholes and criminals in order to attract women. So pulling a million serious criminals out of society probably won’t make a difference. Many probably already have kids. Now those kids will grow up with a parent in jail.

Its not a scientific study, but I was reading a book on gangs once (Do or Die) and a counselor who was an ex-gang member was telling the author ‘find me a serious gang banger who hasn’t been abused, physically or sexually. Not a hanger on or a wanna be, but a serious criminal’. Basically he was claiming that many of the most serious criminals had severe childhood trauma. This is relevant because now you have an entire nation of kids whose fathers are in prison, and maybe those kids are now at higher risk of sexual or physical abuse.

I don’t know what the solution is to be honest. I’m sure some people have figured out what works, but I don’t know it.

[Sage_Rat]

@Randy_Seltzer

1. A typical term of incarceration is long enough to effectively “remove the person from the population” and prevent him from having children.

I’d venture to guess that over the age of 25 the possibility of finding a mate decreases sharply with each year (if you are male). And once you hit 35, I suspect that once you get out of jail you’re probably going to be looking for a real job not a gang to sign up with.

10-20 years is a significant period of time given that the human life span is only like 70 years. Missing out on that is going to impact your effect on the rest of society.

2. Criminal behavior is learned from a parent.

True, friends are also a factor but again, the more and longer periods of time that bad elements are kept away, the less contact and the less influence you would expect.

Unless you’re arguing that black people are genetically rather than socially disposed to crime?

Second, I believe that current sociological theory holds that the lack of a father figure is a better predictor of criminal behavior than the existence of an anti-social father figure.

That would be a solid argument against me, if there’s data to support it.

[Honesty]

@msmith537

The short answer is no. The flaw in your reasoning is that these angry Black men are not being locked up for the duration of their life (not that they should be generally).

Very angry black man here.

Briefly, I had a neighbor who dealt drugs on the east side of Detroit. A client, high-as-a-kite walked to him while he was getting into his car and shot him. My neighbor crawled into his car, retrieved his firearm from his glove compartment, and shot the man dead. He was sentenced for five years for carrying a concealed weapon (though he only served a portion of that sentence). While in jail, he turned to God and was eager to start life anew. Once he was released, he applied for jobs ranging from Pizza Hut delivery man to Wal-Mart and was turned down because of his prior record. When I suggested school (he has a high school diploma) , he told me that he doesn’t qualify for financial aid (because of his record).

So he is back to selling marijuana and crack-cocaine in Detroit. And frankly, I don’t blame him at all. While this might sound Rev. Wright-ish: I think that’s precisely what the justice system wants him to do. <shrug>

• Honesty

[Honesty]

Bah

[Sage_Rat]

@Honesty

Briefly, I had a neighbor who dealt drugs on the east side of Detroit. A client, high-as-a-kite walked to him while he was getting into his car and shot him. My neighbor crawled into his car, retrieved his firearm from his glove compartment, and shot the man dead. He was sentenced for five years for carrying a concealed weapon (though he only served a portion of that sentence). While in jail, he turned to God and was eager to start life anew. Once he was released, he applied for jobs ranging from Pizza Hut delivery man to Wal-Mart and was turned down because of his prior record. When I suggested school (he has a high school diploma) , he told me that he doesn’t qualify for financial aid (because of his record).

I’m not sure what this has to do with the OP or with what msmith537 said. It is relevant to my second post in this thread, where I said that someone further along in their life when released from jail is more likely to look for a real job, which your story corroborates. It may be hard to find a job as an ex-convict, but you’re certainly going to have better odds of finding gainful employment if you’re seeking it than if you don’t.

Even if you do go right back to crime, like I said, you’ll have been absent from possibly influencing the next generation for some time.

[msmith537]

@Sage_Rat

I’d venture to guess that over the age of 25 the possibility of finding a mate decreases sharply with each year (if you are male).

Are you joking or just ignorant?

@Sage_Rat

And once you hit 35, I suspect that once you get out of jail you’re probably going to be looking for a real job not a gang to sign up with.

By your mid 30s, most people have probably grown out of their youthful stupidity. However, a 35 year old can still be a criminal or useless drain on society if they have no skills, a criminal record, are unable to find work or spend all their time drinking and smoking crack.

Case in point:

@Honesty

So he is back to selling marijuana and crack-cocaine in Detroit. And frankly, I don’t blame him at all. While this might sound Rev. Wright-ish: I think that’s precisely what the justice system wants him to do.

I think the justice system wanted him to not become a drug dealer and get into a gunfight with a crackhead in the first place.

[Euphonious_Polemic]

@msmith537

I think the justice system wanted him to not become a drug dealer and get into a gunfight with a crackhead in the first place.

But then how would the private prison industry make a profit? Why are you against private enterprise, and hard work? Are you a socialist or something?

[Sage_Rat]

@msmith537

Are you joking or just ignorant?

It appears that 25-29 is actually the period of time a person is most likely to marry, so I was off by 5 years, but otherwise it is accurate that the older a single person is, the more likely that they will never marry.

http://elecpress.monash.edu.au/pnp/free/pnpv8n4/v8n4_6McDonald.pdf (PDF, Table 3)

I don’t know why you’d think that I was joking or displaying ignorance by this.

[msmith537]

@Sage_Rat

It appears that 25-29 is actually the period of time a person is most likely to marry, so I was off by 5 years, but otherwise it is accurate that the older a single person is, the more likely that they will never marry.

I don’t know why you’d think that I was joking or displaying ignorance by this.

Because the comment appeared so nonsensical that one might think you were attempting to make a joke.

“Married” is not the same thing as “mate” or even “knocked up some ho”. And for the purpose of this discussion, “knocking up some ho” is probably most relevant.

Yes, most people probably do get married in their mid to late 20s. Mostly because that is the logical age for that step in people’s lives. They graduate college at 22, spend a few years getting their shit together, and then get married and have kids.

That said, the peak age to attract a mate is certainly not 25. Unless you mean their attractiveness to an 18 year old girl. In which case that would be the age they could no longer pass for a 21 year old.

@Euphonious Polemic

But then how would the private prison industry make a profit? Why are you against private enterprise, and hard work? Are you a socialist or something?

Sigh

Do I need to ask you the same question I asked Sage Rat?

[DigitalC]

@Sage_Rat

Even if you do go right back to crime, like I said, you’ll have been absent from possibly influencing the next generation for some time.

Being absent IS what influences the next generation. Its not all those wonderful criminal fathers teaching their sons the tools of the trade that makes them criminals, is them getting thrown in jail and making them grow up without fathers that does it.

[Qin_Shi_Huangdi]

I would say to reform the black population of the USA so that the cycle doesn’t perpetuate we need to institute conscription or State Service for all men and women not going to college at age of 18. There they can join the military, or the Peace Corps or some other public service and learn useful skills.

[Euphonious_Polemic]

@msmith537

Sigh

Do I need to ask you the same question I asked Sage Rat?

You mean a question that would garner you a warning in Great Debates?

[msmith537]

@Curtis LeMay

I would say to reform the black population of the USA so that the cycle doesn’t perpetuate we need to institute conscription or State Service for all men and women not going to college at age of 18. There they can join the military, or the Peace Corps or some other public service and learn useful skills.

I think the Emancipation Proclamation sort of put the kibosh on that idea.

[Qin_Shi_Huangdi]

@msmith537

I think the Emancipation Proclamation sort of put the kibosh on that idea.

Conscription is not slavery and it’s for all people of all races.

[msmith537]

@Euphonious_Polemic

You mean a question that would garner you a warning in Great Debates?

Not if it is regarding a statement so outlandish a reasonable person would think it’s a “woosh”.
It’s also a question I have to ask Curtis LeMay. This may come as a shock, but there are a lot of people in this country who don’t go to college who actually work regular jobs and aren’t criminals.

[Qin_Shi_Huangdi]

@msmith537

Not if it is regarding a statement so outlandish a reasonable person would think it’s a “woosh”.
It’s also a question I have to ask Curtis LeMay. This may come as a shock, but there are a lot of people in this country who don’t go to college who actually work regular jobs and aren’t criminals.

No, this is more a purpose to encourage kids to have more education.

[athelas]

@Sage_Rat

It appears that 25-29 is actually the period of time a person is most likely to marry, so I was off by 5 years, but otherwise it is accurate that the older a single person is, the more likely that they will never marry.

Marry != having kids, particularly in the black population.