Had Hitler rose to power (even without the presence of the USSR) the lower industrial capacity would have doomed the Russians.
That is, without the tremendous growth in industrial output during the 1930s, which came about because of the communists, and if Hitler had still come to power in a universe where there isn’t the USSR, then Russia would have lost the war.
Occupying armies can have difficulties pacifying countries, as Japan had already discovered by that time in China and the US found out in Vietnam. However, with Hitler’s plans to simply deport or kill whole civilizations, I think that would have been less of a problem once they defeated the Russian army.
Except “the Communists don’t take power” wouldn’t have meant “the tsars still in power”. The provisional government (which would have become non-provisional) would have taken power, and there’s no reason to think they wouldn’t have industrialized.
There’s no reason to believe that Russia would be able to industrialize to the level they achieved under any form of government except a totalitarian one with centralized planning.
That degree of explosive industrial growth in such a short time is unprecedented in history. Naturally, it was achieved through the blood of of its own citizens so it’s not desirable, but I don’t see how a less ruthless regime could have pulled it off.
Historically, the Soviets had far greater numbers of aircraft and tanks than the Germans at the start of Operation Barbarossa, with 11,000 tanks and 7,100 to 9,100 aircraft against the Nazi’s 2,770 tanks and 3,350 aircraft.
The USSR manufactured a tremendous number of tanks, enough so that they could lose tens of thousands and still win. I just don’t see how a lesser country could have prevailed.
How would a fledgling republic fare during the 1930s depression ? Didn’t do Germany much good. How would Russian industrialisation proceed with hyperinflation and ultra unemployment ? Would it be able to proceed with literacy and emancipation of the peasantry ? Would it need a strong hand to bring order and hope ? Or what ?
Failures
[ol]
[li]The Provisional Government had to share power with the Petrograd Soviet. Members of the Soviet always rejected the Provisional Government.[/li][li]The Provisional Government did nothing to stop the war. In fact, as desertions increased, it set up death squads to hunt down and execute deserters. The soldiers came to hate the Provisional Government.[/li][li]The Provisional Government was unable to end the shortages of food and fuel in Petrograd. This was because it continued the war, which was causing the shortages. The workers came to hate the Provisional Government.[/li][li]The Provisional Government did nothing to solve the land problem. In the countryside, peasants started taking over the land of the nobles, many of whom had run away. The Provisional Government sent soldiers to take the land back by force. The peasants came to hate the Provisional Government.[/li][li]The Provisional Government did little to deal with its opponents. Even after the Bolsheviks rebelled in July 1917, it allowed Lenin to preach his popular message of ‘all power to the Soviets’. People came to despise the Provisional Government.[/li][/ol]
The Provisional Government (which would have become the non-provisional Government) would have come to power in 1917-18. Assuming they ended the war with Germany (which they didn’t do in our universe…which is the primary reason they DIDN’T come into power and there was a Russian civil war), they would have been in a good position to take off from there. Most likely they wouldn’t have industrialized as rapidly, since they were more concerned with agrarian reforms, but there wouldn’t have BEEN hyperinflation or ‘ultra unemployment’. Where are you getting these things from? A view of the Weimar Republic? Germany had it’s own unique burdens post war that Russia wouldn’t have had. Even if we assume everything else that happened in our universe transpired, Russia wouldn’t have had the same reparations and war debt that Germany had.
It would also have had, as noted earlier in this thread, closer ties to the West AND probably even to Germany post war than it did as the Soviet Union. The USSR had a very contentious and even rancorous relation with the rest of Europe post war, and was one of the big bugaboos for the National Socialist types in Germany. That would have been completely different. Even assuming that the rest of the world still had the Great Depression at the end of the 20’s and into the 30’s, whatever the Provisional Government in Russia became would have been pretty well established and probably in a decent position to weather that storm.
So what? It was the failure of the PG to end the war that doomed them. Prior to that hard line on an issue that obviously was very unpopular the PG was EXTREMELY popular with the people and had overwhelming support. The Bolsheviks would never have come close to gaining power if the PG had ended the war with Germany.
Right. This was their fatal flaw. However, as you pointed out above, we are supposed to be thinking of ways to address the OP. The only viable way I see for a non-Communist Russia was for the PG to have not kept the war going, but instead halted it. It’s not that far fetched, since obviously they could have stopped the war, and obviously by not doing so it cost them everything.
Again, same as above.
They didn’t have time to solve it. And the main issue still revolved around continuing the war.
Horseshit. He had to flee Russia, and it was only the continuation of the war by the PG that eroded their popularity that allowed him back in and made his message ‘popular’. Without that he’d have lived out his days somewhere outside of Russia and the Bolsheviks would never have gained any power.
I knew a man who spent time in a gulag. He was accused of being an American spy because a coworker discovered he owned a Glenn Miller record, for fuck’s sake. Yeah, really. The government later kidnapped his son. When the fuck does that happen here in the U.S.? :dubious:
You do know that the Bolsheviks weren’t the ones who overthrew the Tsars, right? I don’t recall the Provisional Government being all that Anti-Semitic. (In fact, I believe they abolished the Pale of Settlement, did they not?)
The Bolsheviks – but Nicholas was no longer in power at that point. We’re not talking about his execution, but his overthrow. Two completely different events. (Nicholas was overthrown in February of 1917 and killed in July of 1918)
