In a stunning action, General Guderian’s panzer army smashes through the Russian defensive line around Moscow. Most of the Politburo is taken prisoner, Stalin commits suicide in the Kremlin. The defeated Russian forces attempt to rally, but are routed by fierce air attacks bay the Luftwaffe.
Hitler issues congratulations to the army-in a speech, he proposes surrender terms to the Soviets, promising immediate cessation of hostilities.
OK, Russia is finished-what does Germany do next?
Would the British have capitulated?
The British would not have given up and really would still have had no reason to; the war would have progressed differently but the United States would still have been drawn into it. And then, in 1945, the U.S. nukes Berlin.
I don’t think the Germans would have held Russia forever. I think a relentless Russian insurgency would have eventually bled the German occupiers dry.
Yeah, they were stretched thin enough fighting the war on two fronts… trying to occupy Russia would have drained them, and I don’t think they’d have been able to free up many troops to send to the western front. They might actually have fallen faster as a result of taking Russia.
I don’t think that the Brits would have surrendered since the US was basically in the war by the time Russia could have been subdued, even in a fantasy scenario. With the US in it and assuming Germany declared war as they did when Japan attacked us that would be all the Brits would have needed to fight on. As for Russia, I don’t believe that the fighting would have ended with the downfall of the Soviet Communist state, so Germany would have been in for years of guerrilla fighting from various partisan groups as well as remnants of the Red Army. The Germans simply didn’t have the manpower to hold everything down even if they crushed the Soviets early on, and most likely they would have had major issues occupying all of that territory including the territory they grabbed in Western Europe. Things like the French Resistance would have tied down a lot of troops and kept things at a slow boil, all the while the US and the Brits would be hammering them from the air, pressing them in North Africa and probably building up for an invasion of Western Europe and Italy. The German picture looks grim even if they knock the Russians out of the war early, IMHO.
War would have continued, although it would be interesting to conjecture on what a German (temporary) victory in the east would have done for US military leaders deciding how to divide resources between Europe and the Pacific.
Perhaps they would have prioritised the Pacific first, and remain entirely defensive in Europe, until nukes are invented?
Or perhaps divert resources to Europe, and supply Russian non-communist partisans to tie down enormous German forces?
Either way, Germany goes down in the end, although it may have been after Japan’s defeat.
And ensuing, no iron curtain, no People’s Republic of China, no Korea…
The Germans grant Vichy like status to the many communities in the USSR. I would imagine had the OP happened the Japanese might have invaded in the east. Maybe the Germans bring back the Romanovs??
Yeah, to me the interesting speculation in this would be the post war period. Basically, the US would have been the single most powerful hyper power after the dust cleared. What would the world look like today had that happened? There would be no North and South Korea, not North/South Vietnam, and no PRC, no Eastern Bloc and no divided Germany. On the other hand, the US might not have been as keen to pour money into Germany or Japan post war to help them rebuild, since the urgency wouldn’t be there of having to shift to a confrontation with the Soviets.
There might still have been a PRC, since the forces involved in the war in Asia would have been much the same, presumably? Plus, with the defeat of Russia, less incentive for the US to support Chiang Kai-Shek against internal insurgency.
That would never have happened. Hitler’s goal was to resettle Germans in the east. At best, some areas of the USSR might have had a government similar to the Protectorate of Bohemia and Moravia.
I’ve never understood this; the Soviet Union was 10 time zones. If they lose Moscow they dismantle the factories, fall back, scorch the earth and continue.
Every single mile of a front the length of the US Atlantic coast hurts the German supply lines more still: doesn’t it?
Yeah, that’s correct militarily. In most countries the loss of the capital would be a blow, but you could still fight on. Though, of course, Germany could consolidate their gains around Moscow, create fuel dumps, use air strips and generally stage out of there once they got the rail infrastructure back up and working.
The real blow though would be to the Communist Party and to Stalin himself. Stalin and the communists ruled by fear, basically, and weren’t all that popular. Winning WWII consolidated the communists and Stalin in power, which no one seriously could threaten at that time. However, had they lost the capital it would have (rightfully) shown them to be weak, especially since it was Stalin’s stupid insistence that Germany wouldn’t betray them that get them into that predicament in the first place. In our universe this got glossed over because, as I said, Stalin et al pulled it out and they ended up winning, thus consolidating his and the CPs hold on power.
Additionally, had Germany captured Moscow and been able to hold it, it would have been able to cut the Soviets off from resupply from the US, since, presumably we couldn’t resupply them via the Pacific, Japan being in the way and all. Finally, there is nothing to say that Japan couldn’t have come in from the East…sure, they had a non-aggression pact with the Soviets that the honored throughout the war in our time line, but a major defeat of the Soviets by Germany AND presumably their winter offensive which stripped Siberia of it’s forces being stopped would have been pretty tempting for the Japanese to no do anything, especially with Germany trying to get Japan to help out on that front.
But there would have been no support of the CCP by the Soviets either, and we were allied with CKS and Nationalist China during the war, and presumably would have been in the post war. I think we’d have been more eager to help actually, and possibly directly with no Soviet Union. I don’t think that, without the Soviets the CCP would have been able to win. Certainly if they did win it wouldn’t have been as big a deal and I don’t think the CCP would still be around today.
Assuming the Soviets were knocked out of the war, the war would have lasted longer and we would have seen nuclear bombings in Europe. But ultimately, against the US and Brits, the Germans had no chance - they would have been defeated. It would have just been a lot more costly.
The Germans simply had no way to take the war to the Western Allies. They had no fleet worth mentioning. The Allies would, eventually, have nukes and the Germans would not. The Germans would be, even in the best scenario, exhausted for manpower and forced to garrison huge chunks of the ex-Soviet union, never mind rule over a resentful empire in the rest of Europe. They could never hope to match the manpower and industrial output of their enemies, who also had the technological edge in the technologies that, as it turned out, mattered (cryptography, radar, nukes).
They could only win if the Allies basically gave up.
This is the problem with most alt-hist scenarios is that they ignore too much reality.
In real history, the Soviets had already dismantled a lot of their factories, especially their key arms production ones and had relocated them to the Urals, etc. before the Germany came close to Moscow.
There wouldn’t have been a need for the Red Army to surrender. They would have just fallen back further and further. The OP has the Luftwaffe keeping the Soviets at bay but that comes from a fundamental lack of understanding of the scale of that war.
The problem is trying to fit reality into the OP without getting too complicated. Since the OP leaves off with Hitler’s offer of surrender terms, then it’s not fighting the hypothetical to say that the Soviets wouldn’t accept them, and that the war would continue without that much of a difference in the end result.
But that’s no fun. So maybe we pretend that the Soviets didn’t get their factories out, or something.
Factually incorrect. The US supplied the USSR via the Pacific Route the entire time through the war. Because Japan and the USSR had a non-aggression pact, the Japanese allowed Soviet ships safe transport.
There actually was a faction of the IJA which wanted to go back and settle not so old grievances, but they had their hands full, first with China and then occupying SE Asia and the various Pacific Islands. They would not have had the resources to carry out significant operations.
Germany never approached Japan to help out, and under this hypothetical would have even less reason to.
No. The CCP would have beaten the corrupt KMT with or without Soviet aid.
Likewise, there is no reason to assume that the CCP would disappear on its own.
[QUOTE=TokyoBayer]
Factually incorrect. The US supplied the USSR via the Pacific Route the entire time through the war. Because Japan and the USSR had a non-aggression pact, the Japanese allowed Soviet ships safe transport.
[/QUOTE]
I’m positing a Japan breaking it’s non-agression treaty with a major Soviet defeat by the Germans and loss of their capital. In OUR universe it didn’t work out that way. Also, I think the majority of US and British supplies to the Soviet Union went through the Arctic Convoy region (i.e. via the Atlantic). This was the quickest route, and US flagged ships couldn’t (obviously) use the Pacific Route, only Soviet Ships.
Perhaps. I think that it would have been too tempting a target for Japan to ignore, and I think Germany could very well have asked for Japan to come in to crush whatever remained of remnant Russian resistance in the far east…and also because Germany would have had IT’S hands full just trying to garrison such a vast region of just the western parts of the Soviet Union. But MMV on this so if you don’t want to buy that, well, that’s fine too.
Why would they have beaten the KMT for sure without a Soviet Union? Even if they had, why do you think they would still be around? Certainly the Soviet Union aided them in the post WWII revolution phase, but it wasn’t massive aide. However, I think the fall of what was the primary communist nation on earth would have had a detrimental effect during the post war revolution in China. Also, I think that without a Soviet Union the US probably would have been more willing to help out. Remember that the reason that the KMT lost was that they did the majority of the fighting of the Japanese during the war, while the CCP essentially held back or fought the Nationalists. Change some factors in the war, however, and it probably would change the outcomes. But if they did win I’m not seeing how they could or would have held it together after disasters such as the CCP caused famines, the Cultural Revolution, etc, without Soviet aide and technical support. At some point the sheer stupidity of the CCP would have brought about their downfall without the Soviets there early on to help them out (and give them massive infusions of cash AND weapons, which they used to basically keep their people in check). Where would they have gotten any of that stuff without a Soviet Union to fall back on?
That of course is not what you wrote. Maybe you were thinking that, but it’s not what you said. That was added later.
Nope. Again, factually incorrect.
The US even supplied Liberty Ships to the Soviets for shipping.
You didn’t address the key issue which is that the IJA had its hands full.
At any rate, whatever Soviet territory they did take, if they did, would have gotten returned in August 1945 or shortly thereafter, so it’s a pointless argument.
Because they were a corrupt regime and the local war lords were selling military equipment to the PLA. The US was ambivalent about the KMT and without the Soviets around in 1945, they would be even less interested. The CCP was deeply committed and would have won.
Who was going to help the KMT? The US was not going to supply enough aid to beat the CCP. They couldn’t.
No, the KMT lost because they were corrupt, ineffective and had poor leadership. The changes in the European War would not have effectively changed the Pacific War.
Their development would have suffered without Soviet aid, but there are countless regimes which have been able to keep their people oppressed with less resources than the CCP. They had no problem killing whoever got in their way, with or without Soviet money.
The problem is that there was no one to oppose them so no matter how many tens of millions died, there is no compelling case for them simply fading away.
[QUOTE=TokyoBayer]
That of course is not what you wrote. Maybe you were thinking that, but it’s not what you said.
[/QUOTE]
Ah…I thought I had. My apologies.
Which part is ‘factually incorrect’? Your cite doesn’t say that the Pacific Route brought in the majority of the supplies from the US and UK. It says that after hostilities started between the US and Japan that only Soviet flagged ships were allowed though (after inspection). So, could you be more specific?
Yes we did (though I doubt we would have if the Soviets lost and went belly up). But that’s not the majority of goods from the US AND UK…it’s not even the majority from the US, since 50% would be a balance, not a majority. So, again, which part is factually incorrect?
But they weren’t fully tapped out. And I believe that the opportunity would have been too much to resist, especially to the faction that wanted some pay back for Japanese defeats on the ground by Russia in the early 1900’s.
Returned to who?? If the Soviet Union fell, who would it be returned too? I don’t see it as pointless at all, and don’t know why returning it to some new Russian state post war means anything to the discussion about the Japanese potentially being the final death blow to whatever remnants fled past the Urals and into Eastern Russia, which was my point.
Why wouldn’t the US help the KMT?? I mean, we were allies during the war and we helped them extensively. The main reason we didn’t help them more was for fear of pissing off the Soviets so soon after the end of WWII. I’m not seeing that as a factor. But consider this to have been our Korean War this time…and THIS time with the US as pretty much the only super power. Assuming there would still be a UN formed, for instance, it would be completely dominated by the US (and Nationalist China was one of the permanent members btw) with no Soviet Union with veto ability.
I obviously disagree with your assertion that the US wouldn’t be interested at all. Certainly the CCP was deeply committed, but they also got their asses kicked in several early battles and nearly lost IN OUR UNIVERSE, so I don’t see this as inevitable. Local warlords selling military equipment to the CCP is not the same as Soviet support during or after the revolution.
No, they lost because they did the majority of the fighting and dying during WWII against the Japanese and were basically exhausted by the end of the war with nothing left, while the brave CCP had spent the war (in our universe) avoiding direct confrontation with Japan, building up their equipment, supplies and manpower, and picking at the Nationalists. Hell, Mao basically said as much in a speech before his death, actually thanking the Japanese for their invasion, since without it the CCP wouldn’t have had a chance against the Nationalists.
They had no problem killing whoever got in their way because they had massive amounts of Soviet weapons and cash to do so. Even so, there have been several times where the CCP has nearly lost it, and WOULD have lost it but for the fact that they are the ones with all the tanks and guns. Take that away and I’m not seeing how they could hope to survive, even if they could win in the first place.
Totally disagree. I think that the Chinese people have been in a low level but constant state of near rebellion for over a decade now…probably since the Tiananmen Square massacre, if not before. The ONLY thing that has kept the CCP in power is the fact that they have all the tanks and weapons…tanks and weapons they either got from the Soviets or got the blueprints and designs from the Soviets to manufacture themselves. Without that I don’t see any way they would still be in power today, and really don’t see how they could have even made it past the Cultural Revolution period without that stuff to keep the people in check.
Just wanted to link to the Mao thing, since I find it one of the most ironic and ridiculous things he ever said (and that is REALLY saying something with this guy):
Presumably the course of the revolution in China would still happen in this fantasy alternative timeline. The CCP would have regained it’s strength after it’s early defeats, using the Japanese invasion to rebuild. The Nationalists would have still taken the brunt of the fighting with Japan, still would have lost their best trained and equipped troops, still taken the losses. But I think, post war, things would have been very different with a US in a better position to aid the Nationalists who were our allies during the war, and the CCP would have been in a more difficult position without Soviet aid and support. Maybe they would still win, maybe not (I think not), but it wouldn’t be the same.
Of course, all of this is pretty far afield from the OPs question about what Europe would be like today. My guess there is that Europe today would be similar to what it is today, without the scars of the Cold War. Eastern Europe wouldn’t have been divided and put behind an iron curtain. Russia probably would have been reformed around a smaller core, perhaps with a constitutional monarchy or republic of some kind (I seriously doubt the Soviets would have been given back control…or even been able to take it back). Germany would have never been divided, and probably would be a stronger economic power today because of it, though perhaps not if we dropped nukes on several of their cities.
I believe that Stalin went to earth in his dacha for a day or more after the German invasion, and when the Politburo sent a delegation to get him to come back and take charge, he thought at first they were coming to shoot him.