A response I got to a thread I started in the pit got me to wondering about this and so I ask:
Had the USA not entered WWII then, from all I’ve been lead to believe, the Nazis would likely have won. This I can accept because the Yanks came in and thumped some ass - with the assistance of the other allies.
But what if America hadn’t entered? Would the Nazis have won?
Was there someone that could have kept it going after Hitler died (like Stalin after Lenin)?
Would there likely be an overtly Nazi regime anywhere today?
Would they have had/could they have developed the capacity to maintain a hold on Europe (despite the undergrounds) and could they have moved on to take a non-militarized North America?
Define “not entered WWII.” Does that mean the U.S. wouldn’t have done Lend-Lease, or just that the U.S was not going to commit combat forces, or that the U.S. was only going to commit convoy escorts? Because even if the U.S. doesn’t formally enter WWII, maintaining Lend-Lease to the Soviet Union may have been enough to keep the Soviets from losing. If the Soviets did lose, then I think Robert Harris’s fine book, “Fatherland,” is a likely view of what the world would look like by 1964. If the Soviets didn’t lose, then I think WWII drags on for several more years.
I do not know if, absent the U.S. entry, Hitler takes another shot at Operation Sea Lion in 1942 or 43. Not sure if he pulls it off, if he were to have tried it. (I know Sandhurst gamed out what might’ve happened if they went through with Sea Lion in 1940, the gist being the Brits would have defeated the invasion. Does anyone know if the full results of the wargame are available on the Net anywhere?)
Well America almost certainly wouldn’t be the power it is today. In many ways WWII was the making of America. Before the war it was a powerhouse of industry. After it was by far the most powerful(in basically everything). It helped western Europe with the Marshall plan which gave it very large markets.
An isolationist America would have been the biggest target in the world for a Europe over ran by Germany(if the Russians had lost or made some form of peace. Germany left alone would likely have developed the nuke before the states. If that had happened, game over, the Nazi’s take the world.
Is this thread just limited to the war in Europe or does it also consider what would’ve happened in Asia had the US not fought against Japan? (I’m assuming that this question is based upon the assumption that the Japanese don’t attack Pearl Harbor and instead choose another option like, for example, attacking the Soviets in eastern Siberia.)
IDNHACite, but I’ve been under the impression that if Operation Barbarossa had not defeated the Soviets early on (which it didn’t), the Soviets would have eventually beat the Nazis, and with it probably held Europe.
You need to define what you mean by the US not entering the war…and how far back we are changing history. The US gave a lot of great deal of material support to both Britain and Russia prior to our formally entering the war. In addition, the US also gave substantial (covert) direct military aid in the form of convoy support via our Navy.
I’d say they would have had a better chance at winner or at least getting a draw out of the thing (and getting time to build up and gain strength) had the US not entered the war. It’s possible that the Brits may have opted out and sued for peace with Germany had the US not entered militarily. I know Churchill was increasingly desperate to find a way to bring the US formally into the war, and looked on Pearl Harbor as a life line for the UK.
It would probably depend on your initial assumptions on what role the US WOULD have played as to how the Russians would have fared…and your assumptions on what the UK ended up doing. My guess based on my own assumptions is that the UK would have opted out and Russia would have probably managed to force Germany into a draw, probably taking back some if not all of IT’S territory, but not being able to recapture, say, Poland, or any of the Eastern European countries. The lines would have stabilized somewhere eventually, and then a tenuous kind of peace ensued while everyone built up for the next round 20 or so years down the pike.
Himmler was, I believe, next in line. I’m certain SOMEONE would have picked up had Hitler shuffled off.
Certainly, assuming Germany survived the Russians. Finland was openly Nazi, and so war Italy, and had Germany survived so would they have. I’m fairly certain others would have followed…Spain had leanings in that direction, and so did several of the Bohemian countries who’s names escape me in my current alcoholic fog.
Certainly they could have held in Europe…they weren’t having major problems with underground resistances DURING the war, until the Allies started putting major pressure on them.
As for the US…I seriously doubt that they could (or would) have mounted a serious military expedition directly against the US or Canada.
Japan continues to occupy Chinese territory eventually controlling the whole landmass, continues to occupy Korea, and continues to occupy and control almost all (if not all) of Asia. Pictures of the emperor abound, everyone speaks Japanese and has a Japanese name, Xinjiang and Tibet would probably have been turned into Japanese puppet states like Manchuria, Japanese-backed INA assumes control of India. Japan controls Asia, Germany controls Western and Central Europe. From there, Japanese-controlled Asian forces attack Australia and then move on to South America. Germany and Italy continue on in Africa, German-controlled Russia attacks North America. Nukes come into play, the world turns into a shitstorm. Japan and Germany control what’s left of the rubble.
I feel the Soviets would have been able to win the war without American help. The British would have assisted the Soviets but probably wouldn’t have done a cross-channel invasion on their own. So you would have ended up with Western Europe as a bunch of Soviet puppet states like Eastern Europe was historically.
Let’s say Japan didn’t attack American possessions directly and decided to bypass the Philippines enroute to Southeast Asia. I think American isolationism would probably have kept the United States out of war in any situation short of a direct attack. Japan could have secured its conquests in Southeast Asia and Chiang and Mao probably would have eventually been worn down enough to negotiate a ceasefire in China.
Goering was officially next in line. But Himmler had a much better power base. I’m pretty sure that if Hitler had died, Himmler would have beaten Goering to the succession.
It would have taken Japan a lot longer to conquer Asia. We had cut off their oil and steel supplies. They couldn’t get to the resources they needed with us athwart their supply lines in the Philippines. So WW2:PTO was a go no matter what happened in Europe.
eta: No way the Russians survive without US aid. Even Stalin admitted that.
I think most Americans and other westerners overestimate the necessity of lend-lease to the Soviet war effort. It certainly helped the Soviets but I think they relied on it because it was available. If American lend-lease hadn’t been available, I think the Soviets could have substituted their own domestic supplies for the non-existent American ones.
If your basic assumption is zero American help then not a chance in hell…the Soviets would have been hard pressed to even come out of the war with a draw. They simply didn’t have the domestic capabilities to supply their own logistics and relied almost completely on the US for things like trucks. We also supplied them with crucial and critical war supplies (like tanks and artillery) early in the war that basically kept them in the game. Without that they wouldn’t have lasted until the later stages when them became nearly unbeatable.
If your assumptions are the the US pretty much supplied the Russians and the Brits as we did, but simply stayed out of the war militarily then…it depends on how long the Brits stayed in. With the Brits gone, no more supplies for the Russians (or at least it becomes increasingly difficult for the US to continue to supply them), so…depends on when. Early enough, and see the first paragraph…no more Russia (or, at the best, a Russia that is vastly reduced and is relying on natural defenses in the North Eastern portions to stave off further German advances in terrain less favorable to German panzer tactics). If later…well, possibly a draw or even possibly a Soviet victory (though I seriously doubt they could have mounted a direct assault on Germany…even in the real history their final assault was ruinously expensive to them in terms of men and material, and only possible because Germany was completely shattered, with invading armies on all sides).
But only if we were willing to use force. Let’s say that theoretically Japan attacked Southeast Asia but not the Philippines. With France and the Netherlands occupied and the United Kingdom fighting in Europe, Japan would certainly have been able to conquer all of the territory it did historically.
Now suppose they started shipping oil from the East Indies up to Japan. They would be vulnerable to attack from American forces in the Philippines but would the attacks happen? Would American ships and planes start sinking Japanese oil tankers when the Japanese had made no attack against any American territories?
Roosevelt would have had to ask Congress for authorization to declare a war against Japan because Japan had conquered British, Dutch, and French colonies. I don’t see Congress giving him that authorization. As I pointed out in a previous thread on this topic, Congress didn’t declare war to defend Europe when it was attacked; why would it declare war to defend Europe’s colonies?
But they could have continued taking Chinese territory and other Asian territories and used those infrastructures to make up at least part of what we had cut off. If nothing, it would have bolstered their war effort and enabled them to take even more territory and put those countries’ materials to work for their war.
We disagree on this. I don’t think the Soviets were ever dependant on us for military equipment - they were willing to use American tanks and artillery when it was available but the majority of their tanks and artillery were Soviet made throughout the war. It’s true that the majority of their trucks were American made but, as I said, I think the Soviets saw this as a bonus rather than a necessity. They could choose not to build trucks because we were giving them trucks. But if we hadn’t been there, they were capable of building their own trucks if needed.
But there is no way they would let a major military power remain in Asian waters. They would have attacked the Philippines sooner or later, no matter how much of China they conquered. Their own security would have demanded it.
The Russians would have won for the same basic reason they DID win with US help – because Hitler knew no limits and would not settle, and he was a terrible military leader. Even had Germany taken Moscow there was still plenty of space left to retreat. Gemany didn’t have the population or resources to control all the territory that Hitler wanted.