A "Probability Calculator" for Baseball

Factual Questions
1

Does anyone have a handy link to a site that will perform simple baseball-type calculations such as:

What are the odds of a .600 team going 40-10 in their last 50 games?

Thanks in advance.

2

Well, for something this simple, you don’t need any special program, just a scientific calculator. If a team is a true .600 team, the odds of it winning 40 out of 50 are:

.6^40 * .4^10 * 50 ncr 40 = .144%

Of course, this is the odds of winning exactly 40 games, not 40 or more. To calculate that, you’d have to calculate .6^41 * .4^9 * 50 ncr 41 + .6^42 * .4^8 * 50 ncr 42… and add them all together. Actually, there’s probably some easier way to do it using summations that I’ve forgotten.

3

Not owning a scientific calc, is there one on the net?

Or can someone please just run me:

  1. Prob. of .600 team going 59-4
  2. Prob. of .650 team going 59-4
  3. Prob. of .700 team going 59-4
  4. Prob. of .750 team going 59-4.

I can just multiply by 5 for a rough (slightly high) estimate of “59-4 or better”, it seems.
Thanks

4

Why do I get the idea we are doing your homework assignment for you? :slight_smile: