“People are no longer spending so much of their money on buying expensive shiny new toys in order to keep up with the Joneses, and conspicuous consumption is on the wane.” Oh noes! Civilization as we know it is coming to an end!
I’ve never bought a new Apple computer, but I do have to defend the new Mac Pro. It is genuinely cool.
It could also be age bias. If you’re in your 40s like me then yeah, technology in consumer products isn’t exciting anymore. Probably because I can now afford the stuff and immediately obtain it on a whim and get bored of it just as fast. It no longer has to go on some wish list that I dream about and get excited about.
Now back in the 80s and 90s while I was all excited about walkmans and discmans and pro-logic surround sound, my parents probably thought technology was a bore.
Just like the kids of today who are probably pretty psyched at the PS4 and XBONE, the newest Beats by Dre, and their GoPro camera I’m past that demographic.
It doesn’t excite me because their not marketing to me.
I did not make the “everything” generalization – the OP did.
From several sources, so I did not cite them all. They are easily verifiable, I gave the specific numbers, which are consistent from several sources…
Inflation from '08 tp '13 was not steep enough to account for a 50% increase.
I said it before in another thread, but these days Apple is primarily a cellphone manufacturer. Their computers are an afterthought. I’m not sure iPods even get enough attention to rank as an afterthought. (I have a Sansa Fuze, and I wouldn’t trade it for any iPod you offered me.)
I agree with this. We’ve got a lot of great new innovative hardware - particularly items that utilize wifi - and people are finding innovative ways to use it. There’s cool stuff that requires a pairing of hardware (like the Nest thermostats or the various exercise meters) and also stuff that just brings amazing things to the palm of your hand.
Maybe the OP doesn’t think there’s much going on because the software shows up free, or cheap. It’s just there and people expect it. But like…Spotify? (Any song ever, streamed to your phone) MLB At Bat? (all the stats from all the games sent right to your phone and animated in a game simulation) Shazam? (identify songs from live recorded clips) Google Maps? That stuff still blows my mind, and there’s stuff out there that’s 100x more powerful than I even know.
Heck just the fact that Google can index and serve up the entire Internet is pretty awesome.
But a lot of that is not making money. People want it for free, and it’s hard to put a dollar value on some of this stuff anyway.
There’s still a lot of innovation in humanitarian efforts. People are still trying to figure out potable water and crop fertilization in some places. They’re trying to get our “meh” tech to places where it’ll have a huge impact on a whole society. But that stuff doesn’t make money either. It costs money.
I’ve been trying to understand the basic premise of this thread and not doing so well, maybe because I’m a fairly slow adapter of technology. The OP is in marketing and maybe his perspective is really different from most of us; getting “excited” about stuff isn’t for everybody. Some of us take it slow and easy. Stuff rarely makes me happy, though what stuff can do for me sometimes does.
I suppose Japan has a problem. Things are pretty good in the US. Four people in my department of 15 have bought electric cars, Leafs and the Fiat version. We are often ahead of the curve in Silicon Valley - I think the Prius took off here first, and now I see more of them than anything except cheap Camrys. I’ve got one, and I’m behind the curve.
When has been different? People I know who joined startups during the bubble had the same problem. Tons of companies introduce products, only a handful catch on. We tend to remember that handful years later.
Well, I was talking about consumer products specifically, and I also mentioned appliances and cars (although those have chips in them now too of course).
The technologies you mention are indeed interesting and important. Ironically, again about Japan, Honda quit the solar cell business (after boasting about its products in a bunch of PR–it was rather disorienting).
I worked in the semiconductor industry for a bit (in Japan), and the tech that is constantly being developed there to make the consumer products (and everything else) run is genuinely interesting.
I could have written the OP better, but does no one agree that things have changed since 2007, when the iPhone was new and people were going bonkers over it?
I agree with the poster that said that a lot of the interest is now directed toward software and online services that people expect for free (or in any case are difficult to monetize). That goes hand in hand with what I’m talking about, however.
The point being that big companies are hurting right now, and that comes from finding it difficult to connect with and excite the consumer.
I still have no idea why you think people still don’t go bonkers over technology. Did Wired pack it in and no one told me? People love technology.
I think if people here think it was never different, then that is a case of people just being used to the new era of consumer ennui. The only question is when that era began. It perhaps came in stages.
After WWII, people were genuinely excited about the cars, the refrigerators, certainly about TVs–just about anything because it was all new, people weren’t jaded, and the economy tended toward solid. Even if you didn’t live in that time, it’s clear from the spirit of advertising, TV shows, and other windows into that world (of course, just talking to people as well).
And then I can comment on the times in my life, and I have already. I do think there was a downshift in the 90s, but then teh Internets came along and that created excitement again. I think the economic crisis in 2008 changed a lot, and there has been further downshifting, and now big companies are finding it hard to make waves and spark interest.
Well, I largely disagree with all the above (and the basic premise behind the thread), but don’t want to go point-by-point. But for starters:
- The biggest drivers of the economy are not high tech gadgets. They’re boring staples - food, housing, basic consumables, finance, health care, retail, automobiles, etc. Of the 40 largest companies in the US according to the Fortune 500, only 4 of them belong in the “tech” sphere: Apple, IBM, Microsoft, and Amazon. Note that the last could just as easily be categorized as retail.
- Apple releasing the iPhone in 2007 and the iPad 3 years later did nothing to keep the US or the world out of the Great Recession. Why? Because iPhone and gadget penetration is irrelevant in a macro sense.
- Big companies are not hurting right now. Some may be because of shifting market forces (Best Buy, for an example), but for the vast majority of them, they’re doing quite well. For example, of the top 40 largest companies in the world, only 10 of them made fewer revenues in 2013 than in 2012, and three of those are because of divestitures, spinoffs, etc.
- Honda likely quit the solar business because of Chinese competition, where is where most of the development of solar cells has been done over the past 5 years. Even if they decided it didn’t make sense to pursue it for other reasons, that doesn’t say that the technology isn’t available or profitable - it just might not be profitable enough for them.
Cite for the largest global companies comes from my latest copy of Fortune - not really wanting to write up that list, sorry.
Right after WW II people were excited about cars and refrigerators because they couldn’t buy them during the war, since manufacturing had been converted to war use. But that was a special case. TVs did not explode into people’s homes - on reason for the quality of 1950s programming was that a high percentage of TV owners were well off and relatively more cultured than today.
Big things come in waves. I don’t remember anything particularly exciting in the early 1960s. Stereos were the thing to get in the late '60s. Everyone at college had one, like computers today, and I used my money from my summer job to get one.
Tablets are the closest thing I can think of to a killer hardware product today, with high end smartphones close. And people at work were excited by their electric cars, and showed them off they way they showed off their first iPhones. People talk about Twitter today the way they used to talk about hardware.
I bet wearables come next, though I agree smart watches aren’t it, yet. Unless someone comes up with a good one.
Performance and body style, I’d say. Is anything ever as cool as a roadster?
One problem with smartwatches, IMO, is that many people still like traditional watches. It’s not unusual for the highest-end watches to be the most retro in terms of technology, with mainsprings and mechanical movements. There’s also only so much you can reasonably do with such a small screen. The big draw of a smartphone is that you have general browsing capability along with an enormous number of possible uses based on whatever apps you decide to download. There’s a lot that we used to do with desktops or laptops that we can now do with smartphones. And then there’s the actual phone part, of course. I think just about anyone in the target market for a smartwatch probably already has a high-market smartphone. How can a smartwatch even begin to approach the capability of the phone with this consumer already has?
Granted, there’s the capability of monitoring vital signs, and anything else that requires direct contact with skin, but is that enough to justify the watch?
Most smartwatches work in tandem with a phone, not in competition.
Another factor is that we’re adopting technologies faster which means the span between it being the new hotness and a ubiquitous commodity is now miniscule.
It took the telephone 39 years to go from 10% penetration to 40%, it took the smartphone 4. Tablets have only been a mass market product for 4 years and already, we’re bored of them.
It’ll be the same with electric cars, self driving cars, wearables, VR displays, 4K tvs & 3d printers. Once they hit that right sweet spot of utility and cost, they’ll go from niche nerd toys to ubiquitous background noise in the blink of an eye from a social history perspective.
This is the opposite of a problem. Nobody cares much about smartphones because everyone has one. And they’ll all buy a new one in a year or two. They’re sitting on trains and in restaurants staring at them constantly, pulling them from pockets a hundred times a day, taking photos and videos, sending them to their friends, reading news.
That’s your economy. It’s far bigger and more vibrant than in 2007 when smartphones were cool and desirable and rare.
Even the commodity producers - the phone and tablet manufacturers - are more profitable than they were back then. That was their plan all along.
I think that’s a good point.
I think several people in this thread perceive the economy as good, but I don’t. Walmart recently replaced its US CEO because sales have been terrible:
Yes, many companies are doing well with great profits. But overall this is not an economy that’s making a lot of people happy. We are seeing increases in productivity that benefit companies and not workers. Gap between rich and poor increasing. Wages stagnating. You know the drill.
By the way, I don’t think the technological malaise whereof I speak is anyone’s fault in particular. I think it’s just a reality of technological evolution at this stage. For us to get to the Next Big Thing, a major paradigm shift will probably be required.
But Apple cannot and will not be able to create a “game changer” anywhere near as important as the shale revolution, the upcoming solar energy boom, or even the cargo container. The problems you refer to in post 39 are largely political, not economic. When you get down to it, Apple has redefined itself as a consumer electronics product company, which isn’t the sort of company that, in fact, changes the world (at least not on the Standard Oil/East Indies Company/Ford Motor scale). They tend to rise fast, make fat profits, then slide into obscurity. I would be highly surprised if Apple is a top-10 revenue American company 10 years from now, but would be shocked if Exxon-Mobil isn’t.
And note that in one post you claim that “big companies are hurting right now” and then you agree that “Yes, many companies are doing well with great profits.” Having that cake and eating it too, I see. 