I was pondering this scenario the other day:
A group of settlers from the east coast of the United States travel to Kansas circa 1850. Their first 49 days on their new land go swimmingly, but a tornado goes through their settlement on the 50th day. 50 days later, another tornado. 50 days after that, another tornado. So, for the last 150 days there have been 3 tornados, an average of 1 tornado every 50 days. One settler suggests that with each passing day after the last tornado they are “due for another one.” Another settler suggests that with every passing day, a tornado is in fact less likely because every day without a tornado necessarily increases the average number of days per tornado.
So who’s right? Does the number of days without a tornado increase or decrease the likelihood of another tornado coming? What should the settlers expect the day after 49 days of being tornado-free? Am I confusing concepts? Or am I just seriously confused? I would imagine that the second settler is right and more data would have to be collected before the 50 days/1 tornado pattern can be attributed to something other than chance.