A realistic look at the future in a COVID world -- 2020, 2021, and beyond

The Quarantine Zone
141

You are making my point for me.

I have kids. They need the socialization and physical activity of school. They need fuller days. I don’t really care if they aren’t eager. It needs to be instilled.

Maybe people 150 years ago didn’t need to join a gym to stay in good physical shape, because they had more than enough to do in their regular lives. We no longer have that. We have more than enough junk and labor saving devices for all of us to die of obesity. The world has changed.

I talk with a group of single parents. Many of them are discomfited by the remote learning method. I am a single parent as well, fortunately with enough resources not to let it impact my job. Not everyone has that. With the add on that the remote learning is FAR inferior to the old method.

On the job, I work with computers nearly 100%, so disruption of that has been minimal. I know that some areas of my company have had people move out of commuting distance during the pandemic. So when we return, I expect that more people will continue to be remote.

In some ways, meetings are more easily done remotely. Common technology. The old way, we had to go through a computer system to reserve a room, every room was different, sometimes rooms were double booked, sometimes people called into the meetings remotely anyway and you needed to get them set up on the phone. Now there will be many more people calling into the meetings. What’s the point of going to a room when half the people are on Teams or Zoom anyway?

Not everyone wants to work remotely, and it isn’t possible in certain professions. But I do have more of a hunger for human contact now that I’m remote. I do not know what the long term impact is for people effectively forced into working remotely, where they work remote because there’s no office space for them. It’s something we’ll find out, and I do expect negative long term effects. Children are on another level, far worse IMO.

142

I teach really high achieving kids, by and large (fancy public magnet). Before the pandemic, many were “working” insane hours: every class from 9-4 is intensely academic, then a club or practice or tutoring, then home for hours of homework. Weekends spent running from practice to competition to community service. I cannot tell you how burned out they were . . . But that’s how you get finding to a good college, or admission to a great one.

So they are absolutely learning less, doing less. And we all want to get back to a life without COVID precautions. But I think this is also a chance to look at old ways and have frank conversations about which parts to keep and which parts were unhealthy and not needed. The forcible weaning creates an opportunity to critically reexamine which patterns we liked and which were not healthy (like, do I really need to be available for tutoring every day from 430 to 6? Does everyone really need to take 8 academic classes sophomore year?)

All I am saying is that we shouldn’t pretend that the old ways were all emotionally healthy, and drop back into them. Once we are in that “mode”, it’s hard to find time to even reflect.

They are

143

This is a 1% of the first world argument, as far as the number of people it will impact. I probably could have handled it, but two of my kids are special needs and at the other end of the spectrum. IEP aided normal curriculum is it for them. I would like to find them some activities they would enjoy. That’s it for them.

You have to understand that the number of kids that participate in nothing, who have limited to non existent parent resources, are legion compared to the ones you deal with. They will be just as affected by any attempt to leverage COVID related “gains.”

144

What do you think I am suggesting? Certainly not any sort of policy change. Just that there’s something to be said for slowing down your life a little, and we shouldn’t blindly return to the status quo. Have you really learned nothing from this, no new patterns you hope to keep? There’s nothing you lost you realized you really didn’t need? You want the rhythm of your life in 2022 to be exactly like 2019?

I don’t see how having a discussion and encouraging reflection could possibly adversely affect your children.

145

No, because me and the kids weren’t overscheduled. Not everyone is overscheduled. I guess you were.

Couldn’t take my kids on a vacation because nothing’s open or it isn’t safe. I did what I could with them. Want a new activity, kids? Sorry, it’s closed or cancelled. Want to go to the library? Sorry, closed, remote pickup only. School? Remote only. Church? Remote only. See Grandma? Sorry, she’s in assisted living. You can have a visit where you sit outside, at a distance, if the weather’s nice enough. Can’t stay overnight because hotels aren’t safe.

We did swimming in the summer, sledding in the winter. One outdoor sports league, socially distanced, for one of the kids. That’s pretty much it. Going from normal, healthy, to a starvation diet, with loads of screen time, assuming that creates no bad habits or has any bad long term effects.

Again, what I am speaking to is the people who had a healthy, NOT overscheduled, outside social life, who are influenced by sheltering in place to have a LESS HEALTHY, more reclusive existence. You are attempting to project your experience out for everyone. Most studies I have seen are that participation rates in nearly every activity have been on the decline for years now. I expect COVID to accelerate that trend. More screen time all around, more people staring at cell phones. I don’t consider that a healthy development. You feel the opposite, good for you.

146

Thank you for this tight bottom line. As you suggested upthread I had badly misunderstood your point. Oops on me. Thanks also for your patient correction.

I completely agree with what you say here.

Lots of people will be more insular and less societal once this settles into whatever the “new normal” really is. I’m particularly concerned about the number of comfy-class suburbanites who’ve retreated into their all-but gated houses in their virtually, if not physically, gated communities and now have everything delivered while home-schooling their kids. There’s enough overwrought stranger danger and raging paranoia out there already without massively encouraging that as “sensible precautions” against the Chaos of the Great Unwashed.

See also this post and the article it cites. The overlap between their points and yours is concerning to say the least.

147

I don’t see her doing this. I see posts saying people may have mixed feelings about things opening up again, and may want to keep some parts of the past year in place, or may miss some of it. Nowhere does it say everyone will feel this way, or everyone has gained something, let alone that it’s been a net gain.

You’ve apparently gained nothing from it. I’m sorry to hear that. I know it’s been terrible for huge numbers of people.

I have a special needs kid, too, and her twin, who is just difficult. Doing distance learning has been incredibly hard. They and we have suffered from the pandemic. But, we’ve also gained.

I used to have an hour-each-way commute. Working from home 100% of the time has given me more time with the kids, more sleep, and helped me reconnect with my spouse.

The kids have too much screen time, but we’ve also enjoyed watching things together on movie nights.

We’ve found new crafts and hobbies. Like shooting at archery targets in the garage with my son.

I had a hard time when I was doing half of the schooling, but it was also really rewarding to see my kids working hard and finally getting a concept, or being part of their story writing project, or whatever.

For some people, there will be gain and also loss in going back to “normal.”

It’s a bit like a time when I was laid off. I didn’t get a new job by the time my kids were born, so our plans changed around to me staying home with the kids, and my spouse going back to work. It was a dark time for me to be unemployed, and money was very tight; there was a lot about it that was terrible. But, I also got to stay home with my kids. We’ll always have that time.

148

Thank you. That’s what I am trying to say. Before wasn’t perfect, either.

149

I’ll just jump in here FWIW…

I’m retired and I live alone. No family at all. Before the pandemic I had a few activities where I connected with people regularly-- two choirs, a book club, a ladies’ lunch group, and just having lunch with friends. Occasional synagogue attendance. Mall walking with a stop at Starbucks after. All of that went away. I haven’t sat down to a meal with another human being in a year. I haven’t been touched except by my hairdresser in a year.

So for everyone who is loving all the togetherness and those who are crawling the walls from too much togetherness, there are others who have forgotten the meaning of the word.

People’s situations are different. Different households are taking away different things from this experience, some good things, some bad things. Suggest we show some empathy and compassion and get off each other’s cases, okay?

150

I can see that happening among some middle-aged suburbanites, but I think you’re underestimating how forcefully societal pendulums tend to swing. Just going off of what I hear from my students (and my own experiences as a boring middle-aged professor who spent a lot of time faffing around on the Internet in normal times, and is now heartily sick of it), I think there’s going to be a fairly strong springback after all this is over, with people wanting to make up for lost time.

Especially, I expect that a lot of the comfy-class suburbanite kids who are being sheltered right now will grow up to be big risk-takers; every generation has an unerring instinct for pushing their parents’ buttons…

151

I would tend to agree. I was already working remotely a lot before COVID-19. But we did manage to have some semblance of a social life. Friends, restaurants, activities with the kids. Even travelling from work brought a welcome opportunity to visit new locations and hang out with people socially. Last thing I did before lockdowns was go to an all-company conference for a week in California where we basically spent the whole time drinking and going to DisneyLand.

After I year, I can barely remember what it’s like to go out and do stuff. Zoom calls with friends and social media just doesn’t cut it for me. I feel like soon we will be in a world where the “new normal” is just people never going out and doing stuff with other people.

152

Really? I’ve already posted that there have been some positives for me. (And I acknowledged, and am very aware that it has been horrible for many many people – including my mom, who lived alone up until last month when my sister got laid off and had to move in with her.)

So there will be some things I will miss about this experience. But it has not been a net positive, I don’t wish for it to continue, and I can’t wait for it to be over. No one I’ve talked to would continue this way after it’s no longer necessary. I mean, I’m an introverted homebody, and I can’t wait to be able to do the things I used to do, and even do some of the things we are still doing, but without all the worry.

No way do I want to stay cooped up with just my family and “never” go out with other people as the new normal.

My kids are starved for socialization. We the parents keep pretty strictly locked down so that we can have a slightly expanded bubble for the kids. We let them see one other kid, and a nanny, on a weekly basis, with masks and mostly outdoors. We also let them go to the nearby park about once a week, and they can play at a distance with other masked kids, or ride bikes or roller skate.

No one I know wants to keep cocooning at home after, say their family is all vaccinated.

153

I think being able to work from home is a positive, but then I was doing that most of the time pre-COVID anyway.

But for us, a big part of our lives revolved around doing stuff in New York City. That’s been shut down for the past year and most of our friends have moved out of the city.

Plus it’s put a huge strain on our marriage for various reasons too complex to go into.

154

I very, very much prefer working from home and hope I can continue to do so. My Wife was working from home at first, but got called back into the office. We do have a pretty perfect situation for both of us working from home. My office is in the loft over the second floor master bedroom. Her office was a just rebuilt room on first floor that sometimes doubles as an entry way. It has a door separating it from the rest of the house and it’s own heat control so was very comfortable for her.

I think my Wife prefers to go to the office. If for no other reason than she will get frustrated with how their network is set up and it’s clunky to use at home. I’ve worked on getting it better, but really shouldn’t dig too deep as I’m not authorized to do so (work for a different county gov). My Wife is a “I just want it to work” type when it comes to computers, where I’m more willing to try to tweak things a bit and adjust.

155

Weight gain for children has been an issue with my friend group. Snacks too easily available during remote learning, and too little else to do other than screen time.

Also, keep in mind we may not be able to keep ahead of all the variants completely. Though I think boosters will do well in the long term, we don’t even have a majority vaccinated with the first round in the USA yet. So further surges are still a good possibility. Those pining away for more shelter in place may get yet more of it, along with everything else.

156

Well, in the spirit of your posts, I’ll suggest a policy change but it’s not about COVID or working from home:

We need a hell of a lot more paid time-off in the United States. You wanna talk about “family values”? How about having a decent amount of time available to everyone so they can get to know their family and loved ones. You want to improve the mental (and physical) health of Americans? Give them enough time off to be able to gather their thoughts for a moment or two; enough time off to travel to places farther away and more enriching than Disney World.

157

The problem is the battle between the worker and the consumer. Workers can have their jobs pressed or eliminated by automation, so there is more pressure to reduce benefits. But the same people are also consumers, and every time there’s a recession, there’s a push to give consumers money to keep up consumer spending. The third side, investment income, IMO is a non issue today, as there is more than enough money to invest in any reasonable investment.

Getting the power brokers to recognize that workers and consumers are the same people and adjust the society to something more beneficial for all, while not really hurting the economy any, will likely be a big challenge.

158

The headline is better than the story, but it attempts to anticipate what social challenges there will be post pandemic.

159

Probably. However long it takes to get going, I think Party At Gatsby’s is where we’ll wind up.

160

Or maybe we end up stuck in the twilight zone just where we are now for the indefinite multi-decadal future.

Half the populace of the USA refuses to be vaccinated, and 2/3rds of the world populace is too poor or their country is too disorganized to vaccinate at all. With 5+ billion non-immune people taking turns being carriers, the disease continues to adapt and overcome about as fast as modern tech can come up with vaccines. Meanwhile fatalism sets in with the populace.

Some folks ignore it until they or a family member are injured or killed. And many continue to be in denial even after that. Others hide indoors as physically & socially isolated as they can arrange for the rest of their lives. Everybody else just sort of trudges along through it, resenting the imposition, resenting the never-ending ever-changing restrictions, and being difficult or philosophical about the whole thing as their personality dictates. Meanwhile an entire generation of kids grow up knowing no time when COVID, like the internet, wasn’t ubiquitous everywhere.

Kind of like how folks put up with snowy winters in big cities. It sucks, it brings nothing but inconvenience, irritation, and expense, but it just is. So we dress warm and gripe.

Meanwhile, life in more isolated and communitarian countries that can keep COVID fully contained live life as normal while the Americans look longingly at a society they can’t bear to admit they want and can’t have.