A shy at “The universe has always existed”

Quite. And consider what I would have to do to do so.

  1. Create a theory that has definitions and relationships that stand up to (that is, explain) known phenomena. This description need not share anything with existing theories (for example, the wave theory of light versus the corpuscular theory of light debate that once went on: they shared the data, but not the explanations of it).
  2. Use this theory to predict and describe new phenomena not observed.
  3. Observe the phenomena from step 2 and dust off my hands on a job well done.

The important part is step 1. In cosmology, that theory is necessarily a metaphysic: it describes the nature of reality. More specifically, of the universe (which we have defined as everything that is in our OP). It will likely give us clues telling us where to look, as well, and in what manner (radio telescopes or not, for example).

So I’m handing you, in step one, a theory of everything that is that deals with what we already expect. This theory then describes unobserved phenomena and we perhaps name these phenomena—say, black holes (but why not jabberwocks? Does it really matter?).

We then observe phenomena as predicted by the theory. But have we found a black hole? To answer “yes” we must appeal to the theory. There is no such thing as “a black hole” except in a theory that describes phenomena and from which we may deduce properties and behaviors. This is why I quoted Quine’s passage earlier: it at least applies to most theories that deal with things that are largely unobservable on a day-to-day level (atoms, electrons, photons) but it also deals with theories that predict a causal chain of events like cosmology might. Obviously we can’t witness the first few moments of time, but given the world we see around us we can select values in our theory that might be flexible which will yield what we see around us (say, the proportion of hydrogen to all matter).

And that is precisely where we are with cosmology: a theory of the universe from which we can deduce relevent phenomena that we will be able to observe.

So that’s why I asked, “How do we know it is a black hole?” That is, what theory describes these phenomena? I’m not saying it is tautological reasoning, but it is reciprocal explanation.

I think we reach this sort of peculiar stage in other ways, for example, in the study of quarks which also cannot be observed, but whose interaction will down the deductive line yield observable phenomena. While it isn’t peculiar to cosmology alone, cosmology certainly contains—ready?—descriptions of unobservable phenomena used to explain (deductively) observable phenomena.

There’s no such thing as an apple, or a computer, or a human being.

Those are just conceptual categories we use to predict behavior.

That’s a rather blithe way of putting it, but essentially correct. But I’m afraid I’m not getting your point at all. I and several others in this thread are getting a distinct impression from your posts that you consider scientific methodology to constitute circular reasoning, yet you claim that you are not indicting the scientific method. So what gives?

I disagree. Science does not attempt to be so all-encompassing. It only describes the observable universe. If other things exist which are not observable, science does not attempt to disprove such things. Science does not say such things can’t exist, but it does employ economy in not arbitrarily positing extraneous entitites.

Of course it matters. If you think that singularities are as arbitrary a concept as jabberwocks, then I fear we have no common frame of reference to even continue this discussion.

And that is precisely why specific predictions are so important. The theory of relativity would not be nearly as ironclad as it is had Einstein not predicted that time would slow down at higher speeds, and had that prediction not later been physically demonstrated to be correct using jet planes and atomic clocks. You could argue that there is some other reason that time slowed down in the experiment, and that coincidentally just happened to cause precisely the same effect that Einstein predicted, but don’t you agree that it seems a less likely conclusion?

Seeing things with your eyes is not the only valid type of observation. In fact, there is no such thing as direct observation. Even sight is the result of receptors in your eyes registering the presence of photons that bounced off an object. It is quite simply inaccurate to describe subatomic particles as “unobservable”. They are in fact quite observable. If you discount indirect observation, then you discount all knowledge.

I guess what you mean by “found”. Do you mean “see one with the naked eye”? Or do you mean “calculating an effect on other bodies and estimating what sort of phenomenon would need to be in place to cause that effect”?

Think of it this way: If I were to shoot a gun at you, you wouldn’t be able to see the bullet. However, you WOULD definitely (unless I’m a worse shot than I think) detect the EFFECTS that bullet has on your body. But… you didn’t see the bullet. Does that mean the bullet didn’t exist? Of course not.

Same with science. It observes EFFECTS, and then, based on that, tries to figure out what, exactly, CAUSED that effect. As more and more observations of effects become evident, the explanation as to the cause becomes more and more accurate.

eris, I fear I led you up the garden path somewhat. As Ring points out, black holes are not necessarily singularities, Hawking radiation is too weak to have yet “peeked out above the noise”, and singularities do not necessarily exist: Cosmology currently places a “singularity-type object” at one end of our universe which may or may not be literally zero in size.

However, I sincerely hope that my stupidity in this respect has not, in your eyes, brought the first two lists crashing down like house of cards. General Relativity made numerous incredibly unlikely observable predictions, any one of which was so specific that for it to be the case by chance would be a fluke of truly awesome proportions.

perhaps this is the specific point of contention.

it is at least as likely that none of science is accurate as any of it is. the mathematics might work out, and predict things that we hadn’t seen prior to the development of the theory. and these theories might yield practical results.

but anyone who’s had a thorough explanation of the non-mathematical portion (the description of the physical world) of the standard model would be hard-pressed to avoid thinking “what a bunch of arbitrary bullshit.”

it’s like the color red. we have no idea why red is red and not blue. hell it may be blue for everyone else, they’re just so used to calling it red that they don’t know. to claim that it is red and that’s what it is, rather than it’s something we can use to create a common and predictive model of our consciousness is as big a leap of faith as saying “god did it”, to me.

but hey, maybe that’s not a point of contention. i’m having trouble finding where people stand and why they’re standing here at all.

Indeed. For all we know, each and every person has a different sensation when they perceive “redness”.

But that isn’t what’s important. What does matter isn’t what any given person sees when they look at one “red” thing, but that the category of red is more-or-less constant across people.

Some parts are still arbitrary, agreed: the unique initial conditions of the Standard Model, for example. (The third list represents a hypothesis which does not require unique IC’s.) But the whole lot??, from Newton to Einstein and beyond? Come now, Rama, this is beginning to sound like a conversation with a Young Earth Creationist.

Special Relativity predicted that a clock flying around the Earth would run slow compared to a clock at the airport. General Relativity predicted that a clock at the base of a mountain would run slow compared to one at the summit. This was all when we had barely an inkling that time might not be absolute, and was certainly before these things could be observed. Yet, when clocks were made which were accurate enough to detect such effects, detect them they did.

I simply fail to see how these predictions could come true simply by chance, or “solely by reference to the theory”, or “arbitrarily”. What more must a theory do to put itself up for falsification? Most importantly, how the heck do you explain this act of prediction?

It is these accusations of bullshit, arbitrariness, circularity and inconsistency which I seek to tackle in this thread. This will not happen if the cosmology-deniers are afraid to talk about cosmology, preferring instead to cast their aspersions and duck into the philosophical hedge like kids throwing snowballs at a passing train.

I am happy to accept that it is essentially an act of faith that I am not being deceived by Descartes’ demon, that there is no conspiracy amongst atomic clock makers, and that the scientific method is often not as clear-cut as scientists might make out, but this is a thread where cosmology’s detractors are invited to shy at cosmology. I am simply amazed that, in a forum dedicated to fighting ignorance, there appears an almost allergic unwillingness to deal with the specifics of a given branch of science. If they can explain to me just how Einstein’s specific, accurate predictions were arbitrary or circular, I would be happy to continue. Again I ask:

[Jeremy Paxman]
How do you explain Einstein’s amazing acts of prediction?
[/Jeremy Paxman]

Arguing science with scientists is as difficult as arguing theology with a theologens. The thing is, these are epistemologies themselves and thus set the terms of the debate as to what is evidence and what is admissable as data and which conclusions flow from which premises and so on.

I strongly doubt that detractors of cosmology are just sitting around waiting for that one experiement to make them say, “Hey, shit, we really were wrong!” I’ve seen more than a few threads aimed at attacking those arguing against evolution. The threads take the form, “Here’s the evidence! What do you make of that!?” Thing is, you’ve already made the demarcation between what needs to be explained and what doesn’t, and when others raise questions they feel are important they are begged off as not being within the scope of science. As an example of a typical back-and-forth, check out this thread where a poster Ben remarks, “BTW, Brad, how do you explain retrogenes, or exon shuffling?” In other words, “How do you explain this data that my theory calls the interactions and existents in the interations retrogenes and exon shuffling?” When you put it like that it isn’t so mysterious. And you’re not allowed to critique the fact that the theory is incomplete (granted, this should be expected from every empirical theory but as I will remark I have a fondness for science so of course it doesn’t bother me). What we have to do is critique science on its terms: create a theory that explains this data/behavior and makes new predictions that can themselves be tested. Needless to say, if I make the rules on a board game you can be sure I’ll always have an advantage.

This might be said that scientists are just making shit up as they go or being dishonest and I don’t mean that, but they do set the terms of debate to correspond to the philosophy of science; as such, if one adopts the philosophy of science then there is little to argue over except which interpretation is the most consistent with existing interpretations and does not stray from the mold (positing miracles and such, but the problem of demarcation is not really so simple).

It is not a question of whether or not clocks slow down at high speeds, as far as I can tell.

Personally I grant science much more weight than anything its detractors have come up with, but I think some people feel this is a battle that can be settled by experiment and I think that’s totally not going to happen.

(I think we just got hit with another barrage of philosophical snowballs.):wink:

Scientists haven’t stacked the deck in their favor to make their opponents look bad.

The rules of science are not arbitrary. That’s the whole point of science! Faith can justify anything, and usually does.

Scientific principles are derived from our desire to know the world accurately. Without knowing anything about the history and methodology of scientific investigation, any honest and intelligent person would end up recreating them.

Scientists haven’t stacked the deck in their favor to make their opponents look bad.

I realize this, TVAA.

I know.

I don’t think those who oppose science do, though.

(The earlier post was meant as agreement/reinforcing, not disagreement. Sorry for any confusion.)

Hee, I get in defense mode and don’t know when to leave!

Thanks, Sentient, for your invitation to visit the thread. In my opinion, Eris has captured the essence of the dilemma facing any debate about science (or any other epistemology): it is necessary to step outside the discipline into its parent’s branch in order to avoid a futile exercise in self-referential discussions about tautologies. Remember that, propositionally, if A is false and B is true, then A implies B is always true — a tautology by definition. To put it another way, an examination of scientific data is impossible without rules of examination that are themselves not part of the data.

That’s why science (along with every other philosophical discipline) is built upon an unprovable principle (in the case of science, it is falsifiability). Every philosophical construct, including science, must have at its root certain undefined terms and unproven assertions. Otherwise, the entire structure is circular as each term and proposition must eventually refer back to itself.

It therefore behooves us to speak of scientific matters metaphorically when applying them outside the discipline of science itself. This is precisely what all the great scientists (Einstein, Hawking, et al) do, even when they discuss science among one another. After all, F=MA doesn’t mean very much without some sort of reference to a thing that has M. In and of itself, an equation, no matter how simple or complex, is a self-referential entity — this side over here is identical to that side over there.

For the sake of brevity, I’ll leave the above as is. I’d like to return to the comments made in the Opening Post, since I am one of the theists to whom it made reference. I’ll rely on the hope that few will see returning to the original topic as a hijack. Nevertheless, what follows all has to do with what Eris has just covered.

Well.

There is a difference (subtle but crucial) between something that does not exist, and something that is undefined. Division by zero, for example is undefined but it does exist. To demonstrate this to your satisfaction, solve the following where x = 5: y = 1 / (x - 5). It isn’t that there is no such thing as division by zero; rather, it is that division by zero is undefined. It isn’t that the equation above does not exist, but merely that you have no rule or set of rules within the epistemological context of mathematics that will solve it. Likewise, “outside the universe” is not something that does not exist, but rather something that you cannot define within the epistemological context of cosmology.

That is not to say that it cannot be defined at all whatsoever. Take division by zero again. It is fortunate that it is merely undefined rather than nonexistent, or else building a calculator would be impossible lest we leave out either the operation of division or else the number zero. What we do instead is devise a rule that is outside the context of mathematics: “division by zero” shall be defined as an error condition.

Likewise, we can define “outside the universe” so long as we are “outside cosmology”. Within cosmology, the universe is all there is, and so to speak of something outside it doesn’t make any sense (it is undefined). But that does not mean that whatever is undefined is invalid. Cosmology, like all other reason-based disciplines, is built upon a foundation of undefined terms. The whole of Peanoan mathematics is built upon the undefined term “successor” Again, we must at some point abandon defining terms, or else our entire set of definitions will reference one another like one massive knot of tautology.

One such undefined term in cosmology is “universe”. No one is really sure what it means and, in fact, were you to attempt to define it, you would necessarily change the face of cosmology itself. The term is generally accepted to mean “all that exists”, but that is a working, not a formal, definition, just as in math, the term successor is generally accepted to mean “a number that follows another”. But you can see how formally defining successor would merely leave you with more undefined terms — what is meant by “follows”? Continue this exercise long enough, and eventually you will return in some way to reference “successor”. Thus, successor means successor and is left formally undefined.

Defining the universe informally as all that exists is just about the best you’re going to be able to do without at some point deriving that the universe means the universe. But just as I can make a calculator where “division by zero” is defined, so I can make a philosophical statement where “outside the universe” is defined. Since it seems acceptable that what is within the universe may be called “natural”, I can define what is not within the universe as “supernatural” — i.e., by attaching a prefix that means beyond.

Such a construction is not at all unprecedented in the philosophical disciplines. Sticking with math — merely because mathematics is one of the philosophical disciplines that scientists often respect — there are myriad examples of constructing new sets of rules to define that which was undefined within another set of rules, one of which is the complex number system which is used to establish a set of rules for numbers that are not defined within the set of real numbers. Another example is the Cantor sets (like Aleph-Null) which are used to establish a set of rules for cardinals that are undefined outside infinity.

Note that in the above cases, defining something by wrapping it in a superset does not mean that what is defined is meaningless. Imaginary numbers are not meaningless, and neither is the one-to-one correspondence between the set of even integers and the set of all integers. They are merely meaningless within the subsets themselves. Thus, the epistemic problem of what is “outside the universe” exists only within a discipline where “outside the universe” is undefined. If we establish that the universal set of existence, E, is the union of what exists in S and what exists in U, then we have not rendered existence meaningless. We have merely defined existence in a superset of U.

Therefore, your insistence that there is no such thing as “outside the universe” is arbitrary and does nothing to relieve what you describe as the “numerous inconsistencies” of basic cosmology.

Moreover, it is possible to describe things that are “outside the universe”. For example, nowhere in the cosmological universe does there exist a circle that is described as having a circumference whose ratio is [symbol]p[/symbol] because space is necessarily curved, and nowhere in the universe does there exist a Euclidean plane. And yet I can provide reams of discussion, examination, and usage of circles described that way. It is not something that is inconceivable and yet, cosmologically speaking, such a circle must be left as undefined. Likewise, I can speak of other supernatural entities besides circles — oh, say, G, for example — that can be described using rule sets from various philosophical disciplines. I can’t use cosmology to describe G because G is undefined within that small set. But neither can I use cosmology to describe a triangle whose angles sum to 180 degrees. The inability to describe the supernatural cosmologically is not a swipe at either the supernatural or cosmology. It is just the nature of epistemic bounds.

I hadn’t intended to be so long-winded, but nevertheless here it is. To spare you from further torture, I’ll stop now in case there is anything you wish to debate about what I’ve said so far. Besides, my wrists hurt and I have work to do.

Thanks again for the invitation. :slight_smile:

Oh, please.

There’s a difference between being able to put together a representation and that representation actually having a referent.

We can write 1/0 all we like, but the symbols don’t refer to any mathematical concept. There’s no such number. Neither does the phrase “the smallest number” have a referent. There’s no such thing.

In other words, the existence of a word/symbolic representation doesn’t mean there’s something to represent. That would be as foolish as the man who claimed that since the word “God” is defined in the dictionary, God must exist.

Glad you could stop by, friend.

In the same way that you have followed the line of erislover in attempting to “step outside” cosmology, there is little in your post which I have much interest in pursuing: A grand old thread about the epistemology called “science” need not even mention the sparsely-populated tundra of cosmology, and so I may as well leave such a snowball fight on the more popular pistes of evolution.

At the very least, I hope that the little ditty you composed entitled “How cosmology proves the supernatural” has been put at the bottom of your piano stool, never to become an essential piece in your repertoire. The universe never had a potential to exist, it always existed.

Agreed, and I hope you appreciate that my original use was merely to divest the reader of the notion that matter and energy merely sit in absolute 3-D space and once you fly past the last star in your spaceship you are outside the universe. The “outside” you now speak of is much more to do with the third list, unseen dimensions “outside” the universe (defined here as the 3 dimensions of space and 1 of time in the first list), or even the supernatural (which cosmology says as little about as evolution, by the way). As I say, it’s tricky to compose an OP which might accommodate you and eris together with Svt4Him and lekatt in the same thread, but I think it’s been useful nonetheless.

My insistence is that space and time are not an absolute “backdrop” but are what the universe is “made of”, as stated by Einstein’s Theory of Relativity which made bets each of which a bookmaker would give you odds of billions-to-one-against, and yet all the bets came in. If we agree on this, I have no quarrel with you if you think it is as arbitrary as the Tooth Fairy. Incidentally, I do not bring the charge of “numerous inconsistencies” against cosmology: the thread was and is an invitation for those who make such charges to tell me what they are, and for me to refute them.

In short, many thanks for visiting, if only to confirm and further explain the scope of the thread. However, if I may ask you one more simple question: On a scale of “Meh, a simple parlour trick” to “Christ on a subcommittee, how did he do that?!” how do you, personally, react to Einstein’s feats of prediction and prognostication?

The same way Popper did.

Indeed, perhaps an appropriate quote on which to end this exchange is from the great man himself, the refutability of whose theories I understand Popper admired greatly:

Never has there been a more concise expression of the relationship between maths and physics.

This was brought up before, but I think it’s still serving as a source of confusion. Although I think Sentient’s OP is excellent, I do disagree with one statement:

I believe that the latter would actually be the stronger statement, as it implies that the universe is “all there is”. But cosmology does not deal with positive assertions about what “isn’t”; it only deals with what is known. As I understand it, cosmology does not rule out other realms; it simply treats such things as being undefined. The rational position would not be to claim non-existence for the unknown, but to apply Occam’s Razor, and simply avoid positing extraneous entities.

It seems to me that the problem we’re having here is that eris and Lib are taking your assertion that “there is nothing outside the universe” is the weaker statement, as a tacit endorsement of that statement, and consequently a tacit endorsement of the statement, “the universe is all that exists”.

However, I think Sentient has made it abundantly clear that that’s not what he was saying.