A slightly different question about insider trading.

I’ve read the other thread on insider trading, and it’s not addressing my question. I’ve asked a similar question in the past, but this has an additional twist.

Say I’m a scientist who works for a publicly traded company. I know my company will be conducting a test of a project that, if it works, could be a hugely profitable endeavor. Bringing it to market is not a problem.

My previous question was what if I purchased stock in my own company after it was made public (through filing for a permit to conduct the test) that we are going to conduct the test, but before the test results are known even within the company, would I be OK? IIRC, the TM generally thought so.

The investment rationale there was that a successful test would likely result in at least a short term rise in the stock price, while an unsuccessful test, in my business, would likely not cause the stock to take a significant loss.

Now, the additional twist. What if I took a position in another public company that has a piece of our deal? The investment rationale here is that a.) since their stock price is about 1/6 of ours, it will hurt less to pick up a few thousand shares of them and b.) the proportional gain is likely to be much greater. They can be relied upon to blow the trumpets loudly should it work.

And suppose my colleagues are touting this plan, and I’m wondering: isn’t the one piece of non-public info we have that this other company is in on the deal? Do I need to wait (by the telephone) to buy their stock until I see their press release (which I’m sure will be forthcoming)?

Even if I do wait, and can’t get in until their stock shoots from $4 to $6, if I’m familiar enough with the project to realize that it may well drive a $4 stock to $60 or so, am I liable for charges of insider trading?

Well, the more complex the relationship is between you and the “insider information”, the more difficult it’s going to be to determine whether you actually have inside information or not. I think the bottom line might be, as long as there is still a good amount of “speculation” in your information, you will be OK. If you are investing “hoping” that the test results will be positive, you are speculating. If you yourself have just run the test, noticed that the results are positive, then invested before the results are published, then you are probably going to be in trouble.