Not to be overly optimistic here, but from the progressive point of view, the GOP appears to have boxed itself in, electorally, good and proper here. if there’s one issue their base has committed itself to, irrevocably, it is that Abortion = Murder, and electorally, that issue is a serious loser. And it’s never going to get better for them.
Or is there a path forward on abortion for the GOP? In the short run, Trump is wedded to it, taking credit for appointing SC justices who tore down Roe v. Wade, but even beyond Trump, the GOP base seems to be with him, or even beyond Trump’s extreme position, at the core of their beliefs. They don’t actually seem to have very many beliefs, other than Trump is their Great White Hope, but “abortion = murder” is certainly one.
If the GOP backs away from that core position, I think they lose much of their base, and if they stick with it, they’re choosing a position that 2 out of 3 voters strongly disagree with
So what can the GOP do about being tied to a very unpopular issue in the short term? In the medium term? In the long run? Is there a way out for them?
This GOP that you speak about no longer exists. They have morphed into a party of hatered, control and racism while they follow their cult leader. Its a power grab mob at this point, using any means possible to maintain control.
I dont see a future for the GOP as it presently stands. It will split up.
For decades the abortion issue drove the GOP faithful to the polls. It was a perennial issue that allowed them to crank up their local turnout for any state level election they wanted. Even when they knew the ballot measures would fail. I’m not sure the Dems can leverage the issue in quite the same way. The majority of the country really wants abortion to be an option that’s legally available. Ballot measures WILL succeed. Before long, most states will have abortion rights of some stripe written into their constitutions. Once that happens it won’t be a golden goose that continues to lay. Maybe Dems might be able to use it in states like Alabama or Mississippi that would be unlikely to approve such a ballot measure.
Red legislatures in Ohio and Missouri are showing us what the plan is. Ohio Republicans are vowing to attack the amendment in court and refusing to implement it in the interim. They seem to be confident that they can do this and remain in power, which appears contradictory but, well, Republicans.
High ranking officials in Missouri have joined with legislators to keep the issue completely out of the public’s hands. Their efforts may not be ultimately successful but they have seen the results from other red states and polling within Missouri with horror. Again, they are gambling that conservative voters who favor reproductive rights will not be able to bring themselves to vote for those awful Democrats (similar to millions who will vote for any Dem candidate for POTUS if the alternative is Donald Trump)
In the long run–20 or 30 years–I agree, but there will certainly be a GOP in 2024, and 2028, and likely for a decade at least past that. In my lifetime, and probably in yours I don’t see it going anywhere, and not without a fight, probably on abortion and abortion-related issues.
Abortion is certainly a wedge for the GOP and not in the way they’ve chosen. The Democrats are pretty well united on that issue, and the GOP is sharply divided between those few willing to compromise on it and the many committed to outlawing abortion as a moral issue. Does the GOP collapse once they’ve lost a few national elections? Probably but how many is “a few”? If they get creamed in 2024 and 2028, does that cause them to rethink their policies? I don’t think so.
I suspect it isn’t. It will bring out more conservative primary voters than it drives away. Whether a ban can be accomplished, or the effects of accomplishing it are secondary concerns to having an issue that allows you to grab power now.
The name of the game is exciting voters not changing anyone’s position. Don’t over read the Ohio and Kansas ballot measures, they aren’t the same as electing candidates.
I’m not saying it’s going to be easy or simple or that I’m certain it’s a loser across the board in every election from here on out. Far from that.
But an extreme position (abortion = murder) is a core issue for GOP voters, and it’s a loser for most American voters. It’s not going away, so the GOP will need to figure a position that works for the pragmatists in their party and the extremists. I don’t see a moderate position for them.
I see supporting a federal abortion ban will lose more voters than it gains, Many more.
I agree with you except there’s now a flip side that didn’t really exist before. For years, Roe v. Wade was assumed to be settled law. Now that people can see that the GOP can and will mettle in reproductive rights, it may drive voters into the arms of the Democrats, where previously it might have fallen on deaf ears.
The Republican Party can never support abortion, but it can certainly go quiet on abortion.
The important thing to bear in mind is that abortion doesn’t really bother pro-lifers. After all, we’ve had 1 million abortions a year for fifty years in a row and most pro-lifers live their life just the same - grilling, sleeping, working, chilling, playing, not bothered.
But no Republican politician can be seen as openly endorsing baby murder. They can pay lip service to being pro-life, and minimize it while focusing on the economy and healthcare and education, which may help them win swing voters.
It says that the abortion issue cuts across party lines. Even deep-red areas where Biden lost tended to vote for abortion rights. It may eventually dawn on the GOP that abortion is no longer a winning issue. Sure, they could bring in voters when there was no chance of overturning Roe v. Wade*. When they did overturn Roe v. Wade, their constituents were like, ‘Wait. What? I didn’t want my rights to be taken away! I only wanted them taken away from those other people!’ So now voters are trying to claw their rights back, even Republican voters.
I don’t see abortion as being a driver for the GOP in the future. They’re more likely to fail because they [seem to me] to be choosing their Party and their self-interests over the country.
I heard Nicki Haley after the last GOP primary debate articulate what I believe the standard GOP position will be going forward: “I am personally pro-life. I want to save as many babies as possible. A federal ban is impossible and unpopular. I will support any law restricting abortion that can pass both houses. But nobody wants to imprison women for having an abortion after being raped”
Basically, pro-life but respected the will of the voters, who are actually largely pro-choice when it comes down to their own rights (or those of their daughters).
Whether that can survive a GOP primary from the right remains to be seen, but given enough electoral losses I think even hard-core GOP primary voters will see the writing on the wall. I know many of them were livid when Lindsay Graham came out with his proposed federal ban right before the 2022 midterms.
Right. Basically tell your primary voters you personally would approve of any and all restrictions that cross your desk, but that you won’t talk about hypothetical ones that can’t pass. Wrap it in “let the voters/states decide” and “finding middle ground to save babies” and maybe you can hold onto your pro-life bona fides without getting slaughtered by suburban women voters.
Or, like @Velocity said upthread, just try really hard to stop talking about it. Declare the battle won (by getting Roe overturned) and try to ignore the issue as best you can.
That’s the type of mealy-mouthed position that will attract a portion of the electorate, until she’s pinned down on the subject.
For instance, “any law restricting abortion that can pass both houses” could mean anything from a virtual ban to limitations based on fetal viability and maternal risk, depending on who’s in power at the time and what they think they can get by with. And while few GOPers would publicly endorse imprisoning women who get an abortion after rape, far more are into the idea of throwing physicians in jail for performing said abortions.
Expect similar dancing from Republicans candidates going forward - claiming they want “reasonable” restrictions but avoiding spelling out what they’d do.
Note: there are a substantial number of Republicans who are mostly guided by their personal convictions on the subject, but a probably greater number motivated chiefly by the need to hold power.
Excellent. I’m glad she’s for free maternal healthcare and free healthcare for children! I’m sure her platform includes expanding Medicaid and pushing for universal healthcare in this country. I’m sure she’s devastated that the US has the highest infant mortality rate of any rich country.
Wait, I’m hearing that she doesn’t actually give a shit about babies. Sorry.
This exactly. An honest position would be to say “I’m against abortion personally and think it is the worst outcome for all. We are going to support birth control choice so that people get pregnant when they choose to do, we will aggressively prosecute sexual assault, and we will provide the health and economic supports so that mothers don’t have to worry how they will afford a child”.
With all of those in place, the abortion rate would naturally drop like a rock. We also know this will never happen.