I wouldn’t take too much stock in party registration. Many people registered decades ago and didn’t bother changing.
Or low-information voters going for name recognition. “I’m doing alright and I’ve been voting for McConnell all my life. Why should I change now?”
I’d say the odds are 50-50.
Yeah, a little over 5% of Kentucky’s population is over 75, who would have registered no later than the mid-'60s, when Wallace’s Dixiecrats would have been recent memory and before the “Southern Strategy” flipped the South to Republicans.
“Freedom means I have a buck in my pocket, a gun in the truck rack, I can preach Jesus anywhere I go, tell f_ g and ni___r jokes and grab bitches by the you-know-what. And so what if we can’t talk smack for public record about the Government, people should shut up and suck it up anyway, the strong ruling is just the natural order!”