What seemed at first to be a simple problem has started to seriously melt my brain.
I have an event “A” that has a 3% chance of occurring evertime I press a button. Each button press means an independent 3% of event “A” occuring.
If I press the button 20 times what are the chances that event “A” will occur?
Obviously you cannot just add the 3% chance one after the other else eventually you would get a 100% chance of event “A” happening while in reality it is possible a million button presses may not result in event “A” happening. Was looking up probability stuff and seemed to find an answer to every possible probability question there is except this one. Can only assume I am missing something so absurdly easy no one bothers to write about it.
Feel free to change the example as you see fit in an explanation (e.g. die roll …after 20 throws what are the chances a “1” will appear).
I’m a little confused here, if event A occurs on the second button press, do you continue to press the button or do you stop?
And then what, if you still do all twenty rolls are you adding up the times Event A happened or is it a yes/no thing?
I’ve got my Stats book here, but I think I’ll need more clarification to figure out where to look.
Turn it around. there is a 97% chance of it not happening. Multiply by 0.97 for each trial; e.g., in three trials there is a .97*.97*.97 chance of it not happening or 100% - 91.27% = 8.73% chance of it happening.
[sarcasm]Dammit, you made that way easier then it needed to be, I’m sitting here with my stats book trying to remember my probability class from 7 years ago waiting for answers to my questions and you pull that ‘do it backwards crap’ your worse then my stats teacher.[/sarcasm]
> Turn it around. there is a 97% chance of it not happening. Multiply by 0.97 for
> each trial; e.g., in three trials there is a .97*.97*.97 chance of it not happening
> or 100% - 91.27% = 8.73% chance of it happening.
The OP asked about what would happen if the button was pushed 20 times. There’s a .97 probability that it won’t happen if the button was pushed once, so there’s a .97 ** 20 = approximately .54 probability that it won’t happen if the button is pushed 20 times. So there’s approximately a .46 probability that it will happen at least once.
Yeah, your chances with each press are always 3%. But if you are given 20 goes, then before you start those twenty goes you have a relatively high chance of success. In fact, your chances decrease with each unsuccessful press as the number of tries remaining diminishes.
The probability that the first success happens on the nth press of the button is .97[sup]n - 1[/sup] * .03, and the probability that it happens within 20 presses is a little less than .46, which agrees with what Wendell posted. This is an instance of the first form listed of the geometric distribution.