There’s a prop bet available at a casino here that I found to be odd regarding the superbowl.
From memory:
“A team will have 3 unanswered scores, not including extra points or conversion attempts”.
Yes -200
No +170
It seems to me that 3 unanswered scores is fairly uncommon, yet betting on that pays much more than even. Am I missing something? Are 3 unanswered scores comon enough where yes is the favorite bet?
Seems to me that should have much longer odds. I’d drop 50 bucks on the “no”. without batting an eye.
I’m pretty confident that you shouldn’t bet either side, but if you did you should be betting Yes. It’s not uncommon at all (particularly in the Super Bowl, a game with a rich history of blowouts), and the initial reaction of every bettor who isn’t too familiar with this prop pulls the odds towards No.
Ok, I checked. Betting “Yes” on every Super Bowl to date would have yielded a record of 29-13. If you risked $200 each time at odds of -200, you’d be up $300.
Now, 4 of the last 5 Super Bowls have not seen a team score three times consecutively (Colts-Bears being the exception). Prior to that, however, Yes came through eight times in a row, and 11 out of 12 times. If you were to exclude each side’s best runs as some kind of outlier (i.e., not counting Super Bowls 26-42), then Yes is still making you money, coming through 17 times out of 25.
Thanks. It’s more common than I’d have thought. I guess my perception was skewed by 5 years of close superbowls.
I didn’t end up putting too much on it - bets that intuitively seem too good are usually very wrong and I was cautious.
And it’s YES, reasserting it’s dominance over the upstart NO!