It takes something fairly big in world news to make the local news here. They say that the Taliban has captured four provincial capitals and Afghanistan will fall within a few days. I know several brave Canadian soldiers who fought in Kandahar for long periods, and who helped build schools thinking they were establishing stability and democracy. I bet they are having a tough time with this.
My questions:
Does this issue have a personal connection to anyone?
What does it mean, locally and globally, for the military and for future stability?
I see that China have tried to open relations with the Taliban. It seems to me that Chinas actions toward the Uighurs are just the kind of thing that the Taliban might want to attack through terror. This will just destabilize the rgion and put the population of Afghanistan right back into the 14th century.
The US will lose its influence over territory that has economic and strategic value. Conversely, China, Russia, and Iran stand to gain more influence, which can be both a blessing and a curse.
At this point, it’s hard to see the eventual collapse of the Afghan government as anything but inevitable - despite Biden bragging a few days ago that he had “great confidence” in the abilities of the Afghan government and military.
As for your 2 question, I guess it would all come down to whether the Taliban decides to host another terrorist group like al-Qaeda. I think they would not want to anymore.
I don’t pretend to know all of the minerals and resources that can be extracted from Afghanistan, but the US has tried to build a pipeline there since the 90s. There were negotiations with the Taliban within months of 9/11. The US didn’t initially regard the Taliban as an enemy regime; we just wanted them to stop hosting Al Qaida.
Iran will have little influence in Afghanistan because they are Shia and the Taliban are Sunni with ties to Saudi Arabia. China and Russia will also have little influence because they are not Muslim states. It will benefit the Sunni in their war with the Shia for control of the Islamic world.
Correct on all accounts - I guess what I meant was that there will be more involvement/engagement, but ‘influence’ was probably not the best choice of words. There’s the potential for national security risks for all three countries involved. Unlike the US, I doubt Russia and China would try their hand at nation-building; they’d be more inclined to go full-on Ghengis Khan if they thought it would suit their interests.
The Taliban are a weird bunch. Im not really sure they match up with anyone. They seem to want to go back hundreds of years in time. Im sure the Pakistanis in power arent too pleased because Afghanistan can be a base of operations for opposition groups.
China won’t repeat Russia’s and America’s mistakes. If they decide they have interest in whatever natural resources are in Afghanistan, China will establish trade and buy rights directly from whichever tribe(s) controls the resources in question. China will have zero qualms about supplying weapons to help secure those trade agreements.
I disagree. China and Afghanistan share a border small that it is. The arms China supplies to Afghan tribes can easily be redirected to guerilla groups in Xinjiang. Chinese arrogance can easily lead them to be drawn into a conflict that might be worse than the Soviet/NATO adventures.
It remains to be seen if China even expresses an interest in Afghanistan’s natural resources. But if they do, I don’t think they will resort to invasion forces as suggested by Asahi.