Huh? First you scoff at the idea that the Chinese might be preparing to use force against Taiwan, and then you congratulate me for recognizing that China’s leaders are preparing for the contingency of using force against Taiwan to save their own hides?
So it was the voices in your head that told you what that sneaky Chen was up to, huh? Do they often contradict themselves like this?
This gets way too complicated to address all of the issues, so I’ll try to hit just 3.
China tomorrow could easily take back at least one of the islands off the coast of Fujian province. “Kinmen” is one of them, and if memory serves “Little Kinmen” can easily be seen from the beach at Xiamen. It wouldn’t be a blockade of Taiwan, it wouldn’t be an attack on the island of Taiwan itself, Taiwanese casualties wouldn’t be too upsetting on the evening news back in Detroit. China hasn’t taken any of these islands just like they didn’t turn the water and power off on Hong Kong, which implies that China has had the tools to force a nasty confrontation but hasn’t – yet. Leave it to you to interpret why the Beijing leadership has not upped the ante in such a drastic fashion.
Au contraire, the younger people in China are the most outspoken and adamant that Taiwan, Tibet, South China Sea et al are an integral part of China and should be defended by force. When I say younger, I mean under 40 and includes those with University degrees and international work experience. This is the generation that grew up after the Cultural Revolution and into the modernizing China of today and do not share the nasty experiences and cynicism of their parents. To think that the “young” people of China don’t care about the Taiwan question is gross ignorance.
This was from the Wall Street Journal but apologies for lack of a cite. “Dissident labor leader Han Dongfang recently explained to me (the Wall Street Journal Editor) that for many Chinese, criticizing the U.S. is a way to release the frustrations they feel about their own lack of power. They are constrained from fighting back against those who have leverage over them in many aspects of their lives. In criticizing the U.S. they don’t have to accept any responsibility for consequences, so it is a form of stress-relief. What’s more, it is a roundabout way of criticizing the government – Beijing has trouble fighting back when it’s under attack by “patriots.”
My source is a vague impression of an article that I read in the Economist some time back. In that context, younger=nonoctogenarian. I understand that those under 40 tend to be nationalistic, but I wasn’t aware that the attitude extended to the Taiwan issue. Given my hazy memory, your first hand experience, and my lack of imagination regarding how we could settle this with Google, I’m going to have to cede this point. Thanks for the info.
Z: FWIW (which is very little, actually), my understanding of the 96/97? election is that it was indeed fought and won on local issues. That the world media emphasized the foreign policy issues without emphasizing the local ones is fairly typical, in my newsreading experience.
Gotta say though that I wish that you had given some broader context in response to Ned as in, “Well actually, Ned, Chen Shui-bian explicitly said before ballots were cast that he wouldn’t unilaterally declare Taiwanese independence. Though it’s true that he was known as an open advocate of independence…” I mean, heck, you seem think that such a declaration is at least plausible (over the next 10 years say) and that Taiwan should arm itself in case that scenerio plays itself out. (OTOH, perhaps I can cut you some slack for not hammering out a 40 year history of Taiwanese/PRC relations. 
)
My take is that the US has to walk a fine line between providing Taiwan with the wherewithal to credibly defend itself against a PRC attack/blockade/military action, while discouraging talk of Taiwanese de jure independence. If that means supporting such amusing diplomatic contortions as The One China Policy, so be it.
Sorry to you and Ned if I was a little too vehement in exclaiming “a-ha!” Although not really unstable, China (and probably East Asia in general) has a sort of politically charged atmosphere that tends to make one leap to defend one’s positions at the drop of a hat. I guess some of the political touchiness over there rubbed off on me a little. I need to remember that it is probably a pretty esoteric subject for most folks on this board, so I shouldn’t get impatient with what I might perceive to be misunderstandings. You can tell that I’ve kind of gotten some personal involvement in the issues.
Anyway, thanks for putting up with my rants so civilly.
Zarathustra
No disagreement from me – I personally think of Taiwan and China as two separate entities. However, that is (roughly) how I believe the Chinese government sees the situation; to simply handwave away the PRC’s POV is just begging for (more) diplomatic friction, IMO.
*Originally posted by rjung *
So if – and I’m being very hypothetical here – if Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, and North and South Carolina suddenly decide to cede from the United States as the New Confederate Union, and the Chinese government offered to sell them nuclear weapons to defend themselves from “Yankee aggression”, you’d be entirely in favor of it?
I wouldn’t be in favor of it, but a citizen of the PRC might well be.
Lissen up guys. If you are at all interested in what happens in Asia, I highly recommend reading the Far Eastern Economic Review. Here is a recent piece
http://www.feer.com/_0105_03/p022region.html
For something like the last 50 years they have consistently provided excellent coverage of Asia. It’s the only rag or analysis that I’ve ever seen in 20 years of dealing with China and Taiwan that understands the issues. Anyway, it’s free and will provide a different point of view that US newspapers.
China should ‘get over it’ BUT they want to turn there peoples attention away from there crapy standard of living.
Why not just give more money to anti-commie parties in china ?
dude, you really have a vrey limited understanding of things. That is a bad idea as we do not need to antagonize the Chinese government any more.
China Guy, I fully agree with your assessment about younger people being the most nationalist-agressive. That is also my experience in my contacts with Chinese people. It seems young people, especially men, are the most prone in any country to find force is the simplest and fastest way to resolve a problem.
This issue is just too complex and I do not consider myself an expert anyway so I won’t expand too much. But, because I do follow events in that part of the world I am often asked my opinion on whether China will or will not go to war over Taiwan.
In short my opinion is that the answer is “nobody knows, not even China or Taiwan’s leaders”. Wars generally are not the result of a long, planned preparation, rather they are the result of events that unfolded in what most wanted to avoid. Countries arm hoping the military strength will scare and overwhelm any opposition.
China, like any country, is not a solid homogeneous mass. Some in the government, especially in the military, want to keep the state very much in control while others favor more open policies. This is a balance which can be upset one way or another by unexpected events. Look what happened when the Tiananmen square events. Two months before that nobody could have predicted them and yet they had very important consequences.
Look at the american plane incident. Totally unexpected and yet having grave consequences.
I do not think China (if we can say China acts and thinks as one person) is planning an invasion but they are definitely rearming and getting ready for a show of force.
Right now an attack on Taiwan seems quite unlikely and with the chances of it happening diminishing over time as the Chinese economy develops. If China can continue to develop peacefully and become more integrated in the community of nations, then the chances will continue to decrease.
But, as Churchill said, dictators ride tigers they dare not dismount. The Chinese government uses nationalism to garner support for itself internally. If events would take a turn where the Chinese government found itself in a tight situation, they could well find themselves in a situation wherethey felt forced to do something which neither they or we would want.
Nobody knows how such a situation might come about but it is not impossible.
When I was in China three months ago I was discussing this with a local friend and she was totally optimistic about the future. She could not see any clouds on the horizon. Economic development was booming, relations with the US were also improving a lot… what could go bad? I told her I did not know the future but many things can happen… shortly after the plane accident happened… Who would have thunk it?
In summary, there is no way of telling if China will or will not attack Taiwan. We can only guess if the chances are growing or decreasing and take such actions as may decrease that likelyhood.
Rick: I stick my neck out for nobody.
Louis: What a wise foreign policy!
Casablanca, 1943.