China and Taiwan

Great Debates
1

I was reading this article China Military Again Warns Taiwan, and some of this stuff was pretty worrying if taken the right (or wrong) way.

From China Military Again Warns Taiwan By JOE McDONALD, Associated Press Writer

Sounds relatively alarming to me…especially since I THOUGHT that things had calmed down between China and Taiwan. Is this just China rattling sabers or are they serious about this? A military exchange between Taiwan and China would be devistating to both countries…wouldn’t it? Plus, wouldnt the US get dragged into the thing as well, as we have treaties with Taiwan afaik to assure its security.

Why is China so adamant about this? Why don’t they grant Taiwan independance and push for trading treaties and other things to bring an independant Taiwan into their sphere of influence?

The main question for debate is: Is China serious about this or is this just them rattling sabers? If China IS serious, how do they think they can pull something like that off militarily? What will the US do? What will Europe do? Who would the side with or would the sit this one out?

Reguards,
XT

2

I am concerned over this too. However, remember, the Chinese are “those inscrutable Chinese.” From my experience with people who were formerly Chinese nationals, (almost all over 50yrs old), there’s a great deal of unspoken subtext that’s derived in part from context. So, I’m not sure that this actually anything to be concerned about. I hope that it isn’t.

Our State Dept has been pretty non-alarmist and non-commital about the whole thing.

3

The American State Department is currently busy with Iraq.

The whole Taiwan issue bothers me. Separated from the mainland body politic for 50+ years, this is not a rouge province; this is a viable democratic state with a modern economy. Had it tried a FLQ/PQ type of break from China I might have some sympathy, but 50 years of confrontation and complete divergence of political systems seems to point to a nation state not a province.

4

Taiwan has always been reluctant to push the independance card. Even this new legislature doesn’t sound like they are pushing for it. However, if China directly threatens them, they might push Taiwan into ratifying independance formally…and that will (appearently) mean war. :frowning:

I don’t like this development either, although maybe I’m worrying for nothing. China has rattled its sabers at Taiwan before, so maybe its nothing new.

It IS a bit disturbing that China has kept this up for 50 years though. I guess China really doesn’t care how ITS image is on the world stage…as long as it gets its way.

-XT

5

You should’ve seen the clock in Tiananmen Square counting down the seconds to Hong Kong’s return. There is definitely a type of manifest destiny thinking among the old grey men of Beijing.

Maybe ChinaGuy will give us a view to what’s going on.

6

A lot of ppl think of China as Communist. It isnt really. It is extremely nationalist and the Chinese are the only ppl more ethnocentrist than Americans in my experience. It is so extremely ethnocentrist that it gets in the way of them being expansionist (luckily).

That said, they really fell that Taiwan is Chinese. Ppl from Taiwan think of themselves as Chinese. China doesnt think in 4 year presidency terms like the US. China thinks in centuries. They are happy as long as Taiwan doesnt make any sudden moves. I think this uneasy peace is as good as it gets until inevitably Taiwan is merged with the mainland like H.Kong was. China will get stronger militarily and economically and one day no one will want to shield Taiwan from their wrath. Until that day, China wants them to sit still.

7

/hijack

American’s are ethnocentric? And the MOST ethnocentric?? Um…what ethnicity are we ethnocentric about? Afaik, America HAS no common ethnicity…just the opposite. Our strength is, we have ALL ethnicities. No?

/hijack

Why the threats then? Afaik, Taiwan is not currently seeking independance formally. As you said, they seem to be happy with just having peace…and making tons of money. What reason for China to push right now?

-XT

8

XT, the danger lies in Chen Shui-bian. He is the first president from a party other than the Kuomintang, and his DPP party rose to prominance by openly advocating independance. Once he was a viable candidate, and now as president, he has had to moderate his public stance, but no one doubts what he really wants. His big recent move has been to advocate constitutional reforms opening the way for national referendums. (Gee, what issue might the people of Taiwan want to have a referendum on?)

The danger is also that everyone except the Taiwanese has painted themselves into corners.

The US, especially a GWB administration, is going to have a hard time explaining why it wouldn’t support 20 million people who make up one of the larger economies in the world, and who vote for freedom and democracy and a soverign nation. The foreign policy Bush is advocating demands it: Taiwan is a loyal ally, and a vital US trading partner. Assuming China starts the actual shooting, any US administration, and the nation, would lose massive amounts of credibility if they wimp out (especially considering that it wouldn’t involve ground troops).

On the other side, the government of the PRC keeps hold of what little popular support they have by playing the nationalism card … the saber rattling is in large part for domestic political consumption. For the task at hand – a air/sea conflict with Taiwan – China’s military is a joke (quality trumps quantity in modern air warfare). But they’ve ratcheted up the rhetoric so much that if Taiwan declares independance, they will have to initiate a military response or risk a coup or worse … which they would then lose, thereby almost ensuring a coup or worse.

Meanwhile the Taiwanese have freedom of action. When the popular support for independance, building every year, reaches critical mass, they can start to look for the opportunity to set the wheels in motion. And the more eyes on them the better … Olympics, anyone?

To directly address the OP:
–Is China serious about this or is this just them rattling sabers?
Both.

–If China IS serious, how do they think they can pull something like that off militarily?
The smart ones don’t, the rest are delusional.

–What will the US do?
Shoot down scores of 40-year old MiGs.

–What will Europe do?
Wring their hands, dither, call for talks, and hope that when it all shakes out they’ll have a larger market share in China.

9

There are many reasons why Taiwan’s independence can be read as a threat to China. First, it strikes a the very core of the legitmacy of the Chinese Communist Party and the nation of China- they were built on the concept of uniting an economically, socially and culturally devestated nation. The fact that Taiwan (although admitedly, only a fairly recent aquisition from the mid 1600s) exists as a separate and in many ways, rival nation is cause for concern for leaders, especially as they are already facing significant economic and social changes in Mainland China.
To us, 50 years might seem like a relatively long time for a nation to exist (although Taiwan has certainly not been a democracy that entire time) but Chinese view them selves as a 3500- 5000 year old nation. 50 years is a drop in the bucket and they are merely waiting for the province to be returned.

The independence of Taiwan would pave way, in the minds of Chinese leaders, for the possible independence of Hong Kong, Macao, Xinjiang, Tibet and Inner Mongolia. Perhaps most importantly, mainland Chinese ardently believe that Taiwan is part of their nation and is, in so many words, awaiting liberation. While few Chinese propose that Taiwan be returned as a regular province, most Chinese expect that it would be administered as an Autonomous Region- similar to Hong Kong.

As for our State Department playing an active role, I would recommend reading Patrick Tyler’s <i>A Great Wall: Six Presidents and China</i> and I believe you’ll soon see that the United States has historically paid great attention to this issue, often understating severe threats and manipulating the situation, leading to the current case of the Chinese being fairly distrustful of our Taiwan policy.

10

Would Formosa win in a conflict?
Actually, that was a favorite book of mine when little-Lets Visit Formosa.
Who has what nations on which sides?

11

I’m with Sparkleegirl on this one. I’ll freely admit that I’m no particular expert on this, but I pretty much take China’s threat here at face value. I believe they are perfectly sincere about going to war if Taiwan held a referendum on independence, and that it would be a mistake to assume otherwise. That said, I’ll be rather surprised if Taiwan goes the last mile on this issue unless there is some sort of implied or overt backing from a major power, such as the US, and maybe not even then.

12

xtisme, I take their warnings quite seriously. This is only my humble opinion, I’m not a political analyst or a foreign expert; however, I lived and worked in Beijing for some time, and got to know quite a few people and their views on things.
It goes against traditional Chinese custom to speak as directly as they are doing in this matter. But they don’t want there to be any misunderstanding. They don’t want anyone thinking it is merely political posturing. A mistake like that would prove costly to everyone. They are, as they have stated, deadly serious about this issue. Taiwan MUST reunite with the mainland at some point. The only factor open to negotiation is when.
The return to China of Hong Kong and Macao only whetted their appetite for reunification of the final piece. Those who think that Beijing will give up on Taiwan are miscalculating; just as are those who think Beijing would ever consider cutting loose Tibet. It will never happen. To try to put it in terms that those in the US can understand, think about this: Why did the US engage in a Civil War to keep the country united, rather than just letting the South secede? A country can’t sit idly by and allow itself to fragment and disintegrate. It must maintain its integrity at all costs.
Also consider that up until the past few years Taiwan has not regarded itself a separate country from the mainland. To the contrary it has considered itself and the mainland to be one country (just as Beijing does), with the difference being that it considers itself the legitimate government of both areas. That is to say, Taiwan does not recognize the current government in Beijing as being the true government of China. They want to revert back to the pre-revolution system, with them in charge. It has only been relatively recently that they are beginning to accept that this isn’t possible. Thus the talk of formally seceding from the mainland and establishing their own country. (Practically speaking, it has operated as a separate country for some time, but it hasn’t been official.)
I think Beijing was hoping that by letting Hong Kong keep a somewhat independent government system while still being a part of China, they could use that model to convince Taiwan that reunification would not mean the complete disruption of everything they know. Unfortunately, rather than being pacified and moving closer to Beijing’s plans, Taiwan has spoken more and more of complete independence. Beijing’s statements about war typically come after some sort of announcement of independence by Taiwan. The seeming periods of calm are only brought about by other countries putting pressure on both governments to stop their respective statements. But in the end there will only be a temporary respite. Beijing will not be dissuaded by anyone from its view that Taiwan must eventually be reunited with the rest of the country. It is only waiting to see if this can be brought about through peaceful negotiation rather than war. But one way or another the end is inevitable.
If it comes to war, yes the US has treaties to help defend Taiwan. In that event we would either have to disavow those treaties or go to war with China. War is something neither the US nor China wants; hence all the attempts at peaceful solutions. But I don’t think even the prospect of war with the US will deter Beijing from its plan. So it will become a matter of whether or not Taiwan will peacefully submit to Beijing or push it all the way to war, and then whether or not the US will honor its security treaties with Taiwan.
Yes, it is quite a scary prospect. As for your question about Europe, I think they would try to stay out of it. But China would be pulling hard at Russia and the US would be pulling at England, France, et al. As for SimonX’s comment that our State Department has played things down, I don’t take this to mean that they feel it is not an issue; instead I think they are preparing to abandon Taiwan, as much as the treaties will allow them to anyway. As Grey pointed out, the US doesn’t need to get into yet another war.

13

Hasn’t it been the clear position of the US goverment that we would come to the aid of Taiwan if it was attacked by China? I would suspect that the US would lean on the Taiwan authorities very hard if it looked like a declaration of independence were imminent. (Didn’t notice the irony in that last sentence until after I wrote it.:))

14

xtisme, you asked if China cares what other countries think of it; I would say No, they don’t much care about their image, particularly if “image” gets in the way of their goals. So not even pressure from the Olympic committee would sway them on this nationalistic issue.

While most people in the US view Taiwan as a distinct entity, we shouldn’t overlook the fact that China views it as an integral part of itself. Consider what we would do if California announced that it wanted to split off. After all, it’s been different from the rest of the US for some time now. There would probably even be other countries willing to pledge California military support if it would leave the mainland. And what about Hawaii? Perhaps its natives would like to return to their old system. There are more than a few countries that would help them as well, if it were thought we wouldn’t put up a fight.

Just as a speculation, I think that if it really came down to an immediate prospect of war between the US and China, there would be a secret agreement made between them whereby they each would break their treaties and then trade each other the little country the other one wants – Taiwan for North Korea. That is, the US will not interfere with China taking back Taiwan if China will not interfere with South Korea and the US taking over North Korea. Of course China would have to agree to let Taiwan be fairly autonomous, and the New South Korea would have to allow a demilitarized buffer along its common border with China. And the US and China would have to come up with some pretext for breaking their respective treaties. But these are merely details that could be worked out.

15

YiBaiYuan, I appreciate your insights into this. I don’t see the US ever cutting such a deal with China to be honest. Is that your assessment of what China thinks, or is that your honest assessment of what you think the US would do? I seriously doubt we would either want to cut such a deal and leave Taiwan hanging (it would be VERY bad politically, especially with the conservatives, as there are many factions in the US that are almost as rabid about Taiwan as there are about Israel, IMO), nor would WE want to necessarily tangle with North Korea either…again, IMO. I think our basic policy is to simply let NK wither on the vine so to speak…to self destruct on its own, or change.

I can see and understand your point about China wanting to bring Taiwan back into the fold, so to speak, but I think that the military option would be incredibly stupid for them…IMO they’d lose. They would probably lose even if the US stayed out of it, unless they resorted to nukes, and if they did that, all bets are off.

Also, I doubt that simply waiting out the Tawanese would be effective, as, they are also Chinese and can play that waiting game you mentioned. If China wants Taiwan back, wouldn’t there best bet be to change THEIR government system (i.e. lose the last vestages of communism), open up their markets completely, become a VERY prosperous and successful capitalist/social-democracy? If they did all that, wouldn’t Taiwan WANT to come back, to rejoin them…as you said, they BOTH consider themselves ‘China’ after all.

Hopefully it won’t ever come down to war. I think that is something no one wants, especially between countries with nukes.

-XT

16

No. The US has kept its policy deliberately vague to provide flexibility.

**

Yes, they would.

But just as we should not underestimate China’s seriousness, we should not doubt the Taiwanese. Up until the 90s, the Taiwanese government was run by ethnic Chinese who came over with Chang Kai-Shek in 1948; that’s why they accepted the “Taiwan is part of China” line … they dreamed of retaking the mainland. Now, that generation is dying off, their grandchildren have only ever known Taiwan as home, and because of democracy, power is passing to the native Taiwanese. The last time Taiwan was a province of China was 1898: they’re not just going to go meekly back to being part of someone’s empire.

YiBaiYuan’s swap scenario is highly improbable for several reasons, the most obvious being that NK and Taiwan do not think of themselves as chess pieces. They both have quite capable militaries on their own.

China’s military options are quite limited. They could nuke or otherwise bomb Taiwan … to what end? Their best bet would be a blockade of some sort. But invasion is NOT going to happen in the near or medium future. China vs. Taiwan would be a one-sided rout … but not the way you might think.

"Taiwan would have to be assaulted with enough ground troops to defeat Taiwan’s army of about 200,000 men in regular service, and an additional 1.5 million reserves, who are armed and trained specifically for counter-landing operations. … To move a large force from China to Taiwan, and to keep it supplied, would require absolute control over the Strait of Taiwan, and early capture and control over at least one major port on Taiwan. … [but] By modern standards, the People’s Liberation Army Navy is a joke. … "

A good summary: http://www.denbeste.nu/cd_log_entries/2003/12/InvasionofTaiwan.shtml

17

The hysteria over China and Taiwan makes for unintentionally hilarious reading, when you consider that most of it comes from members of a state that recently invaded Iraq.

However, the Taiwan issue is important, but you will never understand why from reading the bourgeois press.

The 1949 Revolution laid the basis for bringing China into the modern age. Before that time the population was miserably oppressed; the oppression of women was particularly horrific, as symbolized by the barbaric practice of footbinding. The planned, collectivized economy has succeeded in lifting a huge number of people out of primitive backwardness. Despite the criminal misrule of the Beijing Stalinists, the deformed workers state is an enormous gain for the workers of China.

These gains are being systematically undermined by the Beijing bureaucracy, which acts as a conduit for counter-revolutionary forces of imperialism, which wants to turn China into one giant sweatshop.

The Taiwan issue is important here because, as opposed to the Russian Revolution, the Chinese revolution did not succeed in destroying the capitalists as a class. Most of the capitalists and landlords fled the country, and the Chinese capitalist class still exists, and crucially, it exists, as a coherent class. In fact, Taiwan is where a large portion of them went, in addition to Hong Kong, and other areas throughout southeast Asia.

These capitalists are like a pack of ravenous hyenas waiting to pounce on China if capitalism is restored there. The collapse and horror in Russia after capitalist restoration there in 1992 was nothing in comparison to the miseries in store for the Chinese workers if capitalism is restored in China.

If the Beijing bureaucrats were revolutionaries, instead of miserable petty Stalinist bureaucrats, they would aid Taiwanese workers in overthrowing the Taiwanese capitalists. The overthrow of capitalism in Taiwan, as well as in South Korea, and especially Japan, are crucial in defense of the remaining gains of the 1949 Revolution.

18

So much to address and so little time. First off I’m not chinese. Secondly I’ve lived for years each in Taiwan, HK and China, so I think I have a bit of perspective. I like Taiwan, if the majority there want to be independant that would be fine by me.

  1. This is nothing new folks. You can find these comments pretty much every week. If you read a mainland or HK newspaper maybe even daily. This is nothing near the level experienced most recently in 1996 when China conducted live missle war games in Taiwan shipping lanes.

  2. There are no official numbers on the economic integration between Taiwan and China. There are widely accepted estimates that between 500k and 2 million Taiwanese live in China (up to 10% of the Taiwan population). Goggle for estimates of the amount of direct investment Taiwan has made into China. Taiwanese manufacturing base has long since hollowed out with the bulk of their factories long since moved to China.

Integration of these two places/countries/regions is a loose reality now. IMHO economic integration will force a political settlement of some sort and on a 5-10 year horizon.

  1. There is a significant number of ethnic Taiwanese who do not consider themselves “Chinese” as in we are all Chinese. They consider themselves Taiwanese, have their own language, customs and culture. It is a sweeping and inaccurate generalization to characterize Taiwanese as Chinese. Many are and identify themselves as Chinese significant portion do not. This does not include the “aborigines” or “shandiren”

  2. IMHO this mess would not exist if the KMT had declared themselves independant in 1949. They didn’t. Renouncing claims to be the only legitimate and true government of all of China did not happen until less than one decade ago. Is the sovereign country of Mongolia still included in the Taiwan maps of China? Just framing the arguement…

  3. Last but not least, Taiwan has nukes. Not officially but if you had 6 nuclear powerplants, one of the highest concentrations of PhDs per capita, a belligerent neighbor that threatens war, and plenty of money, I think you would be insane not to have nukes. Of course, this is a MAD strategy but again IMHO it’s moot whether China could take Taiwan militarily or not. China could nuke Taiwan, and Taiwan could easily nuke some major cities in China.

  4. China does care about the world and economic sanctions. Look at how the government reacted once they figured out SARS was impacting the economy and FDI. China cares very much about world opinion in certain things.

  5. China does not control N Kor. Remember N Kor nukes are closer to Beijing and Tokyo…

  6. nightmare scenario to the west. China “liberates” some of the dippy little islands off the coast of Fujian. Jinmen, xiao Jinmen, etc. This could be easily done. Then what? These islands can be seen from the China shore and are something like 100 miles away from Taiwan. Does the US risk war over some islands? Does Taiwan risk war? Does the UN get involved?

When you see China holding live exercises in the shipping lanes or retakes an off shore island, then you should take notice. But some general spouting off in a government backed media weekly magazine – that isn’t something that gets my panties in a twist.

19

What gains were those, exactly? Goodbye footbinding, hello genocide? Hello decades of absolute insane economic disaster? The gains China has made in the last few decades are almost all due to moving the country towards a capitalist model, allowing harder budget constraints, and loosening central control.

And Japan? South Korea? Are you out of your gourd?

20

I apologize instantly, for that last bit, that is not appropriate for GD. What belongs in GD is an explanation as to why I don’t think Japan or South Korea would benefit from a communist revolution and collectivization, not simple scoffing.