Possibly the scariest thing I’ve read in a while. I had always wondered how China could possibly make the move to invade Taiwan without seeming totally unjustified. But this line of reasoning, unfortunately, makes it look like they have some legitimate (wholly contrived from any rational perspective, of course) reason to “intervene”.
Whaddaya think? Is this the excuse China uses to invade? If not (and you believe that China will one day attempt to forcibly reunify Taiwan), what pretext will they one day use?
Can we all agree that might does not make right, and that invasions should be moderated by the UN Security Council? (Preferably without the dreaded veto, IMHO).
Despite recent rhetoric on the part of Taiwan, both sides have recognized that there is one China that was in a sort of schism. In fact, you will see Tawain referred to by the Taiwanese as being Repubic of China, Taiwan State, with that “state” being the same character used for every province of mainland China.
In the past, both the Communist Party and Guomingdang claimed to be the leadership, and for awhile different countries recognized either as so (the US at first recognized Shang Kai-Shek’s government as being the leadership of ALL of China).
And before we get all gooey about Taiwan being the land of freedom and the mainland being Commie, keep in mind that Taiwan was run as a dictatorship from the end of WWII until very recently.
My opinion is that there should be no violence in the reunification process, but reunification is inevitable. This can be understood if you understand China’s history, and the average mainland Chinese person takes the reunification issue very seriously (and you will NEVER meet a Chinese person who thinks it would fine if Taiwan split off for good).
Well, WE on the SDMB can agree to that. I don’t know that the govt. of mainland China (or certain other unnamed countries I happen to be living in) can.
Are you sure that’s an accurate statement? On March 17, 2004, the Social Survey Institute of china surveyed 2,150 chinese for their opinion on the referendum taiwain was holding on whether or not to build up their defenses or to hold peace talks with china, 20% said they weren’t interested, and 5.6% said they were tolerant of Taiwan’s independance. Extrapolated, that’s like 260 million people who dont’ care, and 72 million who think it’d be a-ok. Taken with other various sources, it would seem the average chinese citizen is apathetic of the taiwan issue.
Yes, this is nice info. Based on my experience of meeting educated Chinese people, however, they felt that reunification should occur. I would have to see the original questions in Chinese, etc., to get a better idea of what those questions meant to people.
listen you two posters who give credence to polls taken in Communist China…hey you two , come over here; listen, I’ve got a lease arrangement on the Brooklyn Bridge.
listen closely goodbuddies , we can make millions…
Milum, you are showing your ignorance. I have spent quite some time in china and have good friends there and can guarantee the Chinese people do feel very strongly about Taiwan. When this issues has been discussed before in other threads all posters with personal experience in China confirmed that. Go to any Chinese board and you will see what I mean. Even Chinese abroad feel strongly about the issue. What do you have to offer to contradict that? Just that you don’t like the fact?
It’s a rare day when I meet anyone in China that is apathetic or neutral to the issue of Taiwan reunification. It’s much more an indoctrination or faith based thing like your grandmother knowing that you catch colds from drafts.
Taiwan only recently (past 15 years or so) gave up the claim/fiction that they were the rightful government of all of China (and Mongolia) and would someday return to rule the mainland. Chiang Ching Kuo’s passing ended that whole era.
IMHO, politics aside, economic reunification will drive a political reunification of some sort. I personally think it will happen in 5 but certainly within 10 years. There are already somewhere around 1-2 million Taiwanese living and doing business in China. That’s between 5-10% of their entire population.
back to the OP, you’re guaranteed that the Taiwan Affairs Commission will say something along those lines. It’s their sole reason for existance. Western press is always happy to pull out some headline from the third assistant to the maid of some party functionary with zero power or prospects. Keep in mind that relations are lightyears ahead of where they were back in 1996 (less than a decade ago), when China conducted live missle tests in Taiwanese shipping lanes ahead of that first democratic presidential election.
Hey ** Sailor**, now here’s a happy thought. We can settle this question about the accuracy of polls taken in mainland China like civilized gentlemen…
First we go to Tiananmen Square in Beijing. Then you put on a sandwich board that reads **
HANDS OFF TAIWAN on one side, and ** HONK YOUR BYCYCLE HORN IF YOU WANT TO OUST OUR COMMIE GOVERNMENT on the other side,
and march about.
If after five minutes you are still marching about, I’ll concede that the chinese people are allowed free speech by their commie government and that their polls are merely as unrepresentive of reality as ours are in the west.
I am sure Milum will be back shortly to explain in very convincing terms that a communist regime would never indoctrinate their citizens by controlling the media and that, even if they tried, it would not work. :rolleyes:
I have found it is best to be very careful with this topic in China and it is best avoided because there is no quicker way for a meeting to turn sour. I have found young men tend to be the most ardent in their patriotic fervor.
In one of my visits to China I was discussing with my Chinese friend the topic of the adamant-bellicose attitude of the Chinese people with regards to Taiwan and she said something which I found insightful. She said “The people who advocate taking Taiwan by force mostly believe it is going to be an easy and glorious feat and after that life will go on the same as before but even better now that Taiwan is back where it belongs. They do not think it may lead to a bloody war which could claim millions of lives, they do not think it could lead to a messy war which could last years, they do not think that the Chinese economy could go down the hole as foreign sanctions take their tool, they only see the glory and heroism. And if China would go to war based on these premises then it would never turn back no matter the cost because that would be losing face.”
Many, if not most, wars are started with the blind belief of a relatively easy victory which will lead to a victorious peace and glory for the homeland but when those calculations turn out to be wrong and based only on wishful thinking then it is too late to turn back. Even if the side which starts the war is not totally defeated, the gains are ususally not worth the cost and the war would not have been started had the outcome been known. There are many examples but the occupation of Iraq is the most recent. It was not long ago that we were hearing all that wishful thinking about the “Iraqis welcoming the Americans with open arms” and how democracy in Iraq would bring peace to the region. Nationalistic governments end up believing their own nationalistic bullshit and China is no different. Let’s hope the status quo can be maintained and nothing triggers the aggression which would be a disaster for everybody. China would not be a winner even if it could easily take Taiwan, which is not the case.
I once entered a travel agency in DC and got talking to the young Chinese-American man there. He told me he was born in China but moved to the USA at age two so he had grown up in the USA. We had some pleasant exchanges about China and I assumed he would have a more western view of things so I brought up the topic of Taiwan only to find out he was just as adamant as if he were living in China. Taiwan is part of China and that is all there is to it. I pointed out the cost in lives and to the economy if China would attempt to take Taiwan but his response was that the country is worth that and more and the Chinese people would gladly pay the price in terms of lives and money. he was very proud of being Chinese and of how his country was developing so fast and would soon be a major power. OOh boy, i should have been more circumspect and not assume he would have an American POV.
I agree that the economic ties between the two are very strong and growing stronger but they are best served by the status quo and I do not see any way in the world that political reunification will happen in 10 years, much less 5 years. No way. The best we can hope for is the maintenance of the status quo and a very slow and gradual approximation over several decades. A lot would have to change in both China and in Taiwan to make reunification possible in less than a decade. I believe the only possible way is a much slower mutual opening up.
China was showing Hong Kong as an example of the “one country-two systems” and using it as an argument for Taiwan to join based on that premise or even “one country-three systems” but Taiwan was not convinced. Events in HKG are showing serious strains in that system and there is no way Taiwan would subject itself to something similar. Beijing has made it clear that “one country” comes before “two systems” and has pretty much made it clear that they have the last word in everything. Tung Chee Hwa is as unpopular as ever but Beijing who backs him is not about to allow for free elections. Taiwan is taking notes and I see no way they would willingly subject themselves to the rule of Beijing when Beijing is acting like that in HKG.
And how would that prove what we are discussing? Don’t be ridiculous. There are plenty of people here who live in China or who have spent long periods in China and they are telling you that you are wrong. What is your basis for your assertions? You have shown NONE.
I have recently returned from two months in China and this is my seventh such visit. I have travelled and stayed in my friend’s homes and talked about this with them. I have many Chinese friends in China and outside. I read the reports from western media. Chinaguy lives in China and his wife is Chinese. All the evidence I see supports what I am saying.
Now, please tell us on what basis you deny it. What is your evidence. Please provide some support for your assertion.
You’re a fine fellow, I’m sure, but your comments here just seem pulled from a body cavity I dare not mention.
The poll figures, if anything, support the notion that a large chunk of the mainland Chinese population is indifferent to, or actually in favor of, independance for Taiwan. That is, these same figures that you are dismissing would seem to support, to a slight degree, the case that YOU appear to be making.
We others here disagree that mainland Chinese in any siginifcant proportion are indifferent or supportive of such independence. In any event, you are not making sense.
I have a question for those familiar with China. For a long time, I’ve suspected that Taiwan was the main driving force for china to develop militarily. Does China have any military goals other than taiwan? If Taiwain were reuinified with the main land, would that take the wind out of the sails of the autocratic government? If there wasn’t a superpower guarding their breakaway province, would china be more likely to grow as a benign power?
Geez! Sailor reverted back to his dogmas before I could get my rare complementry post in. Wow! That is faster than the Superman changing back into the dull, but dutiful, Clark Kent
But ** Aeschines**, in an arguing mood, accused me of not comprehending the significance of polls taken in Communist China, by saying…
What? But ** Aeschimes**, in the last national election in China, the Communist Party got 99.9998% of the people’s vote.
Milum, please answer the questions being put to you because you just look foolish playing your silly little games. I could also say that if I were to go in front of the White House with a banner advocating the killing of president Bush I would not last more than a few minutes before the Secret Service took me away for questioning. Therefore this conclusively proves the American people overwhelmingly want Bush killed but are afraid to say so. It is just as stupid as what you are saying.
You have said the Chinese people do not feel strongly about Taiwan but you offer no proof or support in spite of the evidence contradicting you. This is GD and you are expected to support your affirmations if they are questioned. If you cannot do that I would ask you to STFU and let others who know what they are talking about have their say. Every time you post you just make patent your ignorance on the subject being discussed. Please inform yourself minimally before posting.
Further, if you say the chinese people do not feel strongly about Taiwan, are you denying the Chinese government has made this an important issue in their propaganda and teaching? Or are you saying they did it but it did not work? Please explain and support your opinions with evidence.
Just this year I have spent two months in China. During this visit I took more than 500 photos and have made 20 web pages already (and counting) with plenty of text and pictures about life in China. And that is just this year. Other posters in this board have also solid credentials to support their opinions.
Milum, please tell us on what basis you have formed your opinions on this topic. What are the sources of your knowledge? How much time have you spent in China? What parts? You have business or personal relations there? Do you closely follow the news about China comming from Chinese and foreign media? Which sources? This would be helpful in supporting your claim which goes against what the rest of us seem to perceive. It contradicts what western media says. It is an extraordinary assertion and requires proof. Please provide it.
What are the odds of me and China Guy showing up here, eh?
You’re putting way too much stock in surfaces. Some Taiwanese agree that Taiwan is part of China. Most are far more ambivalent. There are two major camps in Taiwanese Politics: the “Blue” led by the KMT which clearly says that Taiwan should remain part of China, but remains artfully vague about how and when any reunification should occur, and the “Green” led by the DPP who, it is universally understood, favor independance, but remain artfully vague about how and when independance should occur.
The Blues have more money, and they were firmly in power up until the last decade or so. But the Greens have won the last two elections (admittedly, by very close margins), and more importantly, all the demograpic trends are in their favor. To put it in very broad terms: the power base of the Blues are the old men who came over in 1947; the Greens are their grandchildren, as well as the native Taiwanese.
“In the most recent poll, in June last year, the portion of people saying they are Taiwanese had jumped to 41.5%, while those identifying themselves as Chinese fell to 9.9%. The number who said both dropped slightly, to 43.8%.”
So when does it become a “real” democracy in your eyes? Ten years aren’t enough? Will twenty be? The old autocrats are exactly the ones who favor closer ties with China.
As to the OP: The Chinese government and their people are both very serious about reunification and would do so by force if they could; but for now their options are limited. We had a thread on this recently but I can’t find it.
Long story short, a large scale amphibious invasion of a country of 20 million people requires a LOT of transport capacity, and that in turn requires naval and air superiority. The Taiwanese can probably deny them both. The Chinese can have ten Quadrillion guys with rifles, but it doesn’t matter if their ships keep getting sunk.
